“You may not like the answer, but there is one!”
Ah yes, another fun filled week just ahead of us, as the most manipulated
markets evahhh! try and figure out how to keep the masses fooled once again.
With China & Huawei in the news this morning, and not in a good way, it’s
simply a matter of when the corporate buyback stooges & the “Plunge
Protection Team” [PPT] show up and punish those that sell stocks. Will it be a
Trump tweet, the comedy act of Mnuchin & Kudlow, or a planted headline
from the usual suspects like Bloomberg or Reuters? … to soon to tell, but the
answer will be something.
Normally how this works, is that they’ll let you sell and push price lower in
the SP500 … it’s when you’re done they take over … remember, losses don’t
matter to these manipulators, like it does for everybody else … so, when
you’re done covering “short gamma”, they come in and aggressively bid price
higher doing two things; 1) handing you losses, and 2) making you look like
an idiot. Unless you’re one of the first rats that jumped ship, you’re selling
into lower bids, and coupled with much lower volumes & liquidity I
highlighted yesterday in the Sunday update, you become your own worst
enemy by selling into a falling market. The PPT has a pretty good idea where
it all ends, though, cuz they’re in constant touch with their BFF’s the scumbag
LP banks, and JPM, Squid, & Citibank are more than happy to piggyback the
PPT when the fireworks begin.
All of this, of course, leads to one of the biggest problems facing intraday
traders … whether you trade SP500, gold, FX, or oil, markets move at the
speed of light to a point of manipulation … there they stop … and then they
die for the day basically going sideways with very little up/down action … as I
said yesterday, this is the “Losers Formation”, cuz no matter if it happens up
or down, if you got caught on the wrong side of one of these, you’re toast
… there simply isn’t enough volatility left in the day to make anything back
… and you can trace the rise of this phenomenon in markets over the years,
directly to the rise of manipulation by governments … it wasn’t until 2012 at
the earliest, and then picked up additional steam in February 2016 … now it
happens regularly, especially in the stock indices.
Europe opens today, and stocks are hit right out of the gate … we’re over 2
hours from the NYSE open, and the SP500 already has a 30+ point range
… if you look at the M5, it’s been pretty much a straight shot down since
then … OK, then what’s left for U.S. trading, since we’ve put in the days
range already in less than 3 hours to the downside? … and therein lies the
problem, cuz now are you going to assume a 50 point SP500 range today
… 75 or 100 points? … well, if you do, it’s great if it happens, but statistically
market history says it won’t … ignore the statistical evidence and you might
as well go to Las Vegas … at least there, you’ll get free drinks.
And of course, the bigger the trader you are, the worse it becomes, cuz the
bigger you are in your volumes, the earlier you have to be at tops and bottoms
to be successful … so what we’ve seen over the last couple of years, is
“FOMO” [Fear of Missing Out] by institutions … chasing markets up/down,
and then going apoplectic over missing a rally … throw in the PPT to extract
as much pain as possible if you sell, and you now have an idea what we’re up
against.
Where do I start with today? … seriously, can the news get any worse?
… China trade escalations … hell, they even want their San Diego Zoo
Panda’s back! … China escalates tensions with Taiwan … Iran is saber
rattling again with Trump … the NDX100 gets destroyed overnight via the
tech sector and worries about Taiwan … China threatens to bar exports of
rare earth elements to the U.S. … Ford lays off 7,000 workers … Intel &
Google ban Huawei and their subsidiaries … and on and on down the list I
could go another 2 pages.
Lower opening at the NYSE open? … “sure, c’mon in, the water’s fine”
… and BOOM!, here comes the rally right in your face! … and again, what
does it take to get this shit lower to buy during NYSE hours? … no problem
overnight and up to about 7:00 AM EST, but after that sell it at your own risk.
If ever there was a day for this shit to get “monkey hammered”, today is it,
but so far here at 1:30 PM EST, it’s dullsville as the SP500 is meandering
up/down in mindless chop, about 5 points above where it opened.
Today, another example in the SP500 [as well as NDX100] of nothing but
“trade violence” … straight up or straight down, and practically nothing in
between … there is no “give and take” anymore in stock indices, there is only
terror … it’s either longs or shorts panicking to get out, and then it turns
with a vengeance and traps those on the other side … runaway freight train
up, or runaway freight train down … is it any wonder there is no liquidity left
anymore in the SP500 futures?
This is like the 5th day in a row, where I sit here, and am left wondering,
“OK, what the hell do I do with a runaway freight train? … you certainly
don’t want to fade it, unless you have a death wish, but jumping on the side
it’s moving is no piece of cake either, especially when it stops and starts to
correct, cuz there’s no telling where the correction stops … is it 3 - 5 index
points? … 10? … more? [puke city] … and then you want to hit yourself for
not being patient enough to wait for the correction … but if the move is 20+
index points, what’s left to move it after the correction? … well, 95+% of the
time, it’s nothing that’s what, and it leads to losses.
As I’ve said before, you can thank bank manipulation HQ for this, and by
the month it gets worse each and every year that goes by, cuz they’re trying
to manipulate volatility, while at the same time hurting short specs … yes, it’s
bullshit, but it’s the paradigm we have for the foreseeable future in trading
[if you can call it that].
So today, another example of an opening that makes ZERO sense
… manipulated no doubt, and the turn wicked as hell … and then of course,
once the freight train runs off the rails, the day is over … nothing left but
chop, and the wailing & gnashing of teeth … and literally, there’s nothing to
do cuz the algorithm is giving no buy signals … zip, zero, zilch, nada … and
within 30 minutes of the opening at 9:30 AM EST, the M1’s have gotten
smaller in scope, and the day is nothing but a chopfest … good luck getting
that point and a half profit out of anything. Let’s hope tomorrow is better
… how can it be worse really? Until tomorrow mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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