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Friday, June 23, 2017

STOCK INDICES DISCOVER GRAVITY

“Go ahead and ask the Ace of Spades … gravity is a B. I. Itch!”

Sooner or later it had to happen; central banks read the proverbial “handwriting on the wall” [The Holy Bible – Chapter 5, Book of Daniel, the last night of the neo-Babylonian empire] and back away from the market. Remember, the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] will absolutely not soak up the selling on the way down … they are not there to be your bid when you sell and take the indices lower … no, the PPT is there to “punish the bat excrement” out of you on the way back up when you are done … that’s what they do, that’s how they operate.

The PPT isn’t going to sit there and get “gob smacked” by institution after institution and get their bids whacked to provide liquidity to a bunch of fund managers for easy money on the downside. These people, while clueless Twits who have no idea how markets work or what their function is, simply aren’t “stupid”; what they are, though, is vengeful , and when you and your fund buddies get through selling billions of dollars of stocks via either futures or some kind of options strategy, they will get word from their bank sycophant partners in crime [JPM, Vampire Squid, Citi, MS, Barclays, and a host of others sometimes] that the selling has just “dried up”, at which point they spring into action and proceed to shove the market up your donkey so far, you need to see a dentist the next day cuz your teeth still hurt. And it doesn’t matter the reason, and they don’t care about profit like everybody else does; what they care about is hurting accounts that sell, and then hurting those that wait too long to buy and learn what the word “slippage” means on the way back up. In the process, they make your decision to “sell” look like a foolish one; one in which you eventually have to explain to fund clients why you sold billions on the low … it’s a place fund managers and traders of all stripes have learned they don’t want to be.

So here this morning, if I didn’t know better, seems somebody read my post yesterday about where have the overnight “ramps” disappeared to, and all of a sudden gotten religion and gotten a case of the “shakes”; cuz the dirty little secret is that outside of Sunday night, there hasn’t been “zip, zilch, zero, & nada” of central bank “vapors” to the upside this week during the “wee hours”. In coordinated fashion [of course], the G-3 [FED, ECB, & BOJ] have simply backed away. This has most definitely spooked a few folks on the institutional side of the equation, notwithstanding the fact that every single piece of economic statistic you can dream of has been simply horrible, and left plenty of people wondering how long can the “fairy tale” rally go before common sense prevails and we get some kind of correction to the downside.

And as I have said before many times, “he who panics first, gets to panic again later”. So, after a monstrous run up in the indices, don’t expect these guys to sit around and wait for an email telling them price may be headed lower some cuz the central banks have backed away for a while … instead, they’ll sell first and ask questions later. And that is exactly where we are at this morning, as the world rediscovers for the umpteenth million time that, “yes Virginia, stock indices can in fact go down, and yes little Sally there is such a thing as “overnight risk”, and yes little Johnny central banks aren’t there to make sure you make money”.

Turning to today’s market action … well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … somebody got the “shakes” around 6 A.M. and started hitting the sell button in the indices, most notably the Dow30 and the DAX30, with the SP500 hardly budging but just a couple of index points. This exaggerated weakness in the Dow30 versus the SP500 can be directly attributed to the TBTF banks in the Dow30, which are getting crushed as every segment of the treasury yield curve is getting crushed [2 vs. 30, 10 vs. 30, etc.] lower. What that means, of course, is lower profitability on free QE money, which means lower earnings, which means lower stock prices for the group. And while the yield curve is screaming “RECESSION” on the immediate horizon, the FED Twits sit in the faculty lounge and ponder the word “transitory”, and wonder among each other what the world looks like outside their bubble when SHTF. I’m pretty sure, they won’t have long to wait for the answer if their current policies of higher interest rates aren’t curtailed back.

There is a body of thought, though, that thinks the FED is “engineering” a recession on purpose, cuz they think it is inevitable anyway, and that they want rates to be high so they can then “cut them” and have some ammo to fight the recession. That’s all great and good faculty lounge talk, but what makes you think it can only be a “recession”; why can’t it be a “depression”? And then when you cut rates to zero again, nothing happens; WTF do you Twits do then? And I’m thinking, there are more than a few managers around the world with hundreds of billions with AUM [assets under management], that are wondering if everything financial is in the “eye of the hurricane”, cuz at these levels in the indices, if the central banks are pausing in their financial asset purchases, 1) why now, what do they see I don’t see?, and 2) who’s gonna prop this crap up? Every single large asset manager on earth knows, that they have to be “early” to the exit gate, cuz if you wait and the scenario plays out, and you’re forced to sell [redemptions, liquidations, whatever], you get to sell into a falling market and will become your own worst enemy. Musical chairs is a B. I. Itch when the music stops and you’re a mile away from a chair.

And here right before the open, we see once again how the PPT showed up after whoever it was that sold this stuff lower, and once they were done it has been literally straight up the wall with not a break in sight; congrats to the fund manager who now, as I write, is sitting somewhere saying, “WTF” and is pondering “idiothood” and wondering if the circus is hiring. Folks, it can’t get any clearer their motives, intentions, and their actions; if you trade your own account learn “the game”.

Chipmunks, of course, get to buy the high open, and the market falls to a new low when they are done… throw in some more disaster economic stats like PMI [which of course means nothing] and a normal “non-trading” human being would come to the conclusion that this stuff is headed lower … and you are wrong … cuz now, when the sell orders “dry up”, who shows up in force to say to shorts, “please, let me make your day a complete disaster by bidding this crap higher … you’re welcome. Come again”! Thank you PPT for all you do … first trade of the day directly below … not the prettiest of bottoms off of the open, but a “hammer” & “three white soldiers” for a double confirmation short term low gets us long … and then our buds at the PPT show up and bust it higher for us. Same old thing, different day thank you version 4 volatility algorithm, which as I said yesterday absolutely “nails” long initiations into the market for profit.


An hour into this [so far] clusterfark “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] Dow30, and the PPT, not content to let an opportunity slip to completely make shorts bleed from every orifice, has once again come in off of a 21384 low bid and screamed it up to 21428 [44 points] in 13 minutes, just a hair short of the upper plum SDEV exhaustion line.

Now, since I know people are thinkin’ it, I’m gonna answer it, the question being why not hang on to my long and wait for the giant move up? 1) hindsight is wonderful isn’t it?, and more importantly 2) the low I got long from was the first leg down after the open, and first legs down underneath the aqua New York open the algorithm calls for a scalp; meaning, let it ride up and at the first hint of selling pressure or a large spike up, liquidate and come back later. What happened before in the pre-market is not a factor or consideration in the trade … only what is happening now that the cash market is open and trading. Second and third legs down, and believe me they will come, usually are deeper in length and scope and are the ones where volume goes up and it usually pays to hang on for the PPT to show up later. As I have stated before, lately we haven’t seen many of these, but that doesn’t mean I ignore the algorithm, it’s simply an anomaly. Part of the process that makes you consistent money in the market is doing what you are supposed to do when it’s time for you to do it, and then when you liquidate, not caring what happens next. If they take it higher, so what? … all that matters is the “setup”, not anything else … it is the “setup” that is statistically significant and has an almost 98% profitability performance, and not anything else you can dream up and/or implement. Over time it makes you a millionaire!

For other traders, it looks and feels like a big glob of confusion, cuz you had the pre-market get clobbered, we open and get clobbered, and then it’s off to the races up to almost the high of the day, and now it’s selling off again back towards the middle … welcome to the FWD, which is kryptonite to traders, cuz it whipsaws them around and the momentum neither way continues but reverses and catches them in the wrong direction. Now, how do you make back your losses in this stuff as it slows down if your short going down and got long too late? SHORT ANSWER: “you don’t, and can’t cuz the market isn’t going to [most likely] give you the necessary intraday volatility you need to make it back. Instead, you get the glacial drifts to nowhere and you’ll be lucky to make 7 Dow30 points going forward on a Friday. Good luck with that”.

In so many ways, trading presents traders with a series of dominos, which when they start falling, leave you with no idea where they can go … and trying to figure things out on “the fly” is a stone-cold recipe for a ticket back to the Pudding Business, cuz the universe doesn’t work that way. What we know about the stock indices gives us [me] a tremendous advantage when it comes to trading … which, quite frankly, means it’s the only way I trade this stuff.

Here a little after Noon in NY, the Dow30 is caught in drift mode, wandering about with some traders trying to “goose it” above the 21439 high bid to set off some sell stops … so far unsuccessful, but even if they do manage to pull it off, I can’t see any kind of sustained rally going forward [until it does]. It’s Friday afternoon in summer, and about 99.99% of every trader doesn’t want or care about this stuff this afternoon … simply put, trade flow has died for the day, and we got over 3 hours of this crap left. It’s hard to see anything happening, but who knows?

They don’t call it the FWD for nothin’; and today is a perfect example of why you have to be very careful every frickin’ day you trade, that you don’t fall into the trap and get eaten up alive; new lows twice [once from the pre-market], then a move [thank you PPT] up to the high, and then the rollover and die back to the middle … all-in-all, every MoMo player on the planet looking for the pony ride gets bucked cuz there ain’t any MoMo [momentum for you Newbies] except the continuing losses from positions expecting some. And as I can attest from more years trading the stock indices than I want to admit, more stock index traders have been taken out back and “shot” from this phenomenon, than any other market event or scenario combined. At the end of the day, you add it all up, and you sold the low twice, bought the high twice and can’t believe the losses from a day where the market is exactly where it was when the “fun & games” started in the pre-market about 7 hours ago … and you either learn from it the first [or maybe second if your slow] time, or they eventually carry you out on a stretcher. All on a day where nothing happens really, and explaining it to those who haven’t lived through it, is like explaining calculus to a cat; he looks at you and thinks, “that’s nice, get me something to eat” and then walks away without a clue as to what you just said.

The good news from this week, though, is that the stock indices have been reintroduced to gravity; granted, not as sharp down as I’d like to see it, but enough to set doubts into the minds of those who think 2 M1’s in a row down 7 Dow30 points is a “break” and can be bought with impunity. That sets up more trading opportunities in the days and weeks ahead, which hopefully will provide us more opportunities for profitable trades from the algorithm.

Currently, both historical, realized, and implied volatility in the Dow30 & SP500 sits at 50+ year lows; simply put, I don’t care what the central planners think they can do, it simply cannot go much lower and of course history tells us it can go a hell of lot higher and ultimately will. I’m not looking for the VIX to go orbital, but even a return to a normal low volatility period would put Dow30 ranges back up into the 120 – 130 point range, and anything remotely going back to historical norms would put the daily Dow30 range between 150 – 170 points. At either of these two levels, not only would the PAMM be looking at a lot more trades, profitability would go through the roof. JP Morgan’s chief “quant” argues today over on ZH for much higher volatilities in the weeks and months ahead, and it’s hard to deny his logic; in any event, the central bankers aren’t going to abandon the markets nor is the PPT just going to disappear into the shadows and let traders have their way with the indices, and therefore it’s the reason I’m only expecting a modest increase in volatility over the rest of the year into 2018.

It’s about a half hour to the close, and you’d probably make more money selling ice cream cones at the beach than sitting at a trading screen … this stuff has been dead for hours … since before Noon really … a little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants if you’ve hung around and tried to do anything. And, in FWD fashion, the market is picking up steam to the downside towards the 21370 - 80 area. Guess what? The PPT ain’t here to help the longs from above and they’re hitting the exit gate. Oh, if you’re up there, aliens that control human trading in the 26th dimension, how about new lows on the close? And the answer I get back is, “go to the beach dummy”!

And in retrospect, the little voices were right … the PPT shows up for the 30 point rally on “vapors” here a couple of minutes to the close and saves the longs. “Damn it’s good to be a banksta”! Onward & Upward.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach beckons … the dog, I swear, is gonna need an “intervention” cuz he’s now hooked on ice cream. Yesterday we stopped at the DQ for some soft serve vanilla [his favorite] before hitting the beach, and after devouring his in like 5 seconds, played beggar to every single soul in the joint wanting theirs as well, all the while anchoring his porky behind like a cement block on the floor cuz he wants more … I ended up carrying him out, and he acts like I’m taking him to the Vet to get fixed … “man, the prima donnas I got to deal with” … so we are gonna hit the DQ first again today and see what happens… we are soooooo outta here … until Monday mi amigos.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Thursday, June 22, 2017

WHAT’S HAPPENED TO THE OVERNIGHT RAMPS?

“Be very careful when attempting to catch the vapors!”

Oh, the “wailing & gnashing of teeth” over in Libtard Nation is deafening … Chelsea Handler, Debra Messing, and a host of other Hollywood degenerates like Michael Moore, are in “shock & tears” over ‘Pajama Boy” losing by 5% to Karen Handel in Georgia - 06. A “woman” won, you should happy … right femi-Nazis? Oh wait … it’s the wrong “kind” of woman … I guess we can drop the sexist bullshit now OK? And what happened to all those wonderful polls showing “Pajama Boy” was going to win? As everybody with one functioning brain cell knows, but apparently Libtards keep getting fooled with every election, the “polls” are over sampled with Libtards to get the desired result; they don’t reflect reality, they try to shape it to “the agenda”. And you assclowns continue to wander in the wilderness wondering to yourselves why you keep losing … don’t ever change Libtards, don’t ever change.

Along these lines, Rick Moran has the money quote in his latest article over at “American Thinker”; All of those excuses fail to get to the crux of why the left keeps losing.  Ordinary Americans simply don't like leftists very much.  And when Hollywood and Silicon Valley unite to tell them they are stupid, are ignorant, are racist, are homophobic, hate Muslims, and shouldn't love America so much, what do they expect the reaction from ordinary people will be?

Here’s the link to read the whole article directly below:

Outside of Sunday night’s “vapors” rally, capping a month that routinely saw central bank “vapor rallies” almost every night for a solid month, something has happened since then; the last two nights have seen nothing of them whatsoever. Where have they gone?

In a research piece I read the other day, a Citi analyst makes the case that when the world’s central banks “pull back” from the liquidity explosion of the financial asset buying spree they have been on, they will 1) do it together in a coordinated effort, and 2) world equity markets will immediately react in a negative way. EXIT QUESTION: “Does the SNB know about this”? My own take is that the central bank manipulators keep a very close watch on the “pulse” of world markets; even with the CNTRL-P button at the ready, they still have to be careful the amount of liquidity they let loose upon the world … the NDX100 “bubble ramp up” and then quick 3 day decline, being just the latest example of the “law of unintended consequences” clueless central planner Twits have no comprehension of or for. “Wonder why the world is in the state it is in? First, take a look at the morons in power, and the usual cast of sycophants gathered around them looking for scraps of power, and then look no farther than this law … there’s your answer Skippy”!

My point here is simple, and it goes to the heart of being a career, professional trader or money manager; “Everything ... and I do mean EVERYTHING … has to work eventually at some point; it’s called “tail risk”, and no matter how stupid, deranged, logic backward, risk loaded, and downright unwise to follow and/or implement, at some point in the future you can expect it to work. Nobody has a clue when or why, and many will “latch onto” a plan that probability theory, market history, and human psychology says will turn into a disaster as sure as the sun comes up in the east tomorrow morning. I have always said, “life is trading; trading is life … you can’t separate the two. So, no matter the area of interest or subject matter, whether it is the idiocy of politics, your love life, and/or trading, there are going to be times where the “law of unintended consequences” takes over … the solution? Simple: you have to be able to ride it out, survive, and then prosper”!

There simply is no way, outside of short bursts of when it works, that it makes sense to be a “pajama trader”; I am referring to those people in the U.S. that trade in the “wee hours” of 12:00 A.M. – 3:00 A.M. and hope to latch onto the central bank “vapor rallies”. For one thing, the CB’s aren’t stupid, and for another they don’t discriminate when hating retail spec accounts; it makes no difference to them whether they destroy you being long or short, simple fact is they hate your guts. Why? Cuz you’re are trying to make money off of them and they don’t like that; so, at the drop of a hat, they can turn the nighttime spigot off for as long as they like … “err, wait a sec here … I got to make a living … you can’t do that”! And whether they choose to leave it off 2 days, a month, 6 months, or the next couple of years, neither you nor I have a clue what they are going to do. But, I do know their bids will be there in New York the whole day, and they will be active the whole New York day, and whether or not they choose to “vapor rally” the Dow30 at 2:37 A.M. EDST is “tough toenails” cuz I can’t trade 24/5 without becoming a meth addict.

My greater point of all this today is probability theory … humans like routine and certainty; usually the older one gets, the more set in their ways they become. That isn’t gonna fly when it comes to trading today’s financial derivatives. It’s all probability theory 100% of the time.

Turning to today’s market … here a few hours before the open in New York, it’s very quiet with a subdued light bid off the night’s lows … there are a shipload of Fed Pie Holes speaking today and that’s about it; can they all speak with one “forked tongue”, or do they lie separately to grab a headline and get 2 minutes on CNBC to promote themselves? … of course, in the last hour and a half we have started the glacial drift up in the Dow30 hitting a new high for the day, cuz as we all know, the institutional Chipmunks must be forced to buy high prices at the open … it doesn’t matter whether the market goes up or down after the first 5 minutes, traders on major bank proprietary trading desks [“you know, the ones that are supposed to be illegal, but of course are ignored cuz the TBTF bank says to the regulators “go F yourself”, we do what we want”.] know “the game” and will make the hedge funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, and pension plans pay up as a result of their stupid rules that all buying for said funds must occur in the first 5 minutes of trading in New York. It’s a stupid rule, but it was put in place to prevent fund traders conspiring with bank traders to “front run” orders and then getting cash under the table later [something the CME in Chicago was famous for back in the day] for the info on what was coming in 60 seconds. “Hey, who doesn’t like Benji’s in a big paper sack first thing Monday morning”? And so, the bullshit never ends, it just finds another way to find a fan big enough to hit people square in the face. In the end, the banks still screw them royally, only they don’t need the middleman anymore, so it’s nice & “official” now. “Banksta’s got to be bankstas … it’s who they are and what they do”.

Open comes, and open goes … Chipmunks get the high fills, and now an hour into this clusterfark, the M1 chart looks like a monkey threw a bowl of spaghetti up against a wall and some of the noodles stuck … very small range so far, and like yesterday, the attempts by the central planners to raise bids is being met with somebody selling it back to them … this is something that we definitely haven’t seen in a while, so stay tuned … maybe the world is getting put on notice that a market can have two-way action and not be simply a one trick pony up every 5 minutes.

Here at Noon in New York, once again you can clearly see the signs of central bank manipulation all over the M1 chart; there simply is no other reasonable explanation for this type of trading. Today, we have seen nothing but “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] spikes to the upside followed by “zip, zero, zilch, & nada”; already we have seen multiple 20-30 point bursts to the upside in less than 90 seconds, followed by stretches of total inactivity where the Dow30 can’t even get out from underneath the 2 point spread within 30 minutes or longer … and then BOOM! … another blast up out of nowhere in seconds that can’t be captured without potential horrible slippage from the LP on the offer side as you’re buying; welcome to the new central bank trading paradigm.

Here at mid-afternoon, it’s getting somewhat ridiculous for me to keep saying this, but it’s simply true; here is another “one of the worst trading days I’ve ever seen” type of days, where outside the open this entire day so far is a disaster of trading proportions, where the only thing that happens are 1) rapid spikes out of nowhere, and 2) followed by hours of total nothing [like 3 point Dow30 point bid ranges]. Seriously, this is more than pathetic, cuz when it ends, the volatility that is going to get “unleashed” will be eye-watering to say the least.

And I am going to repeat what I have said before; “if you can’t see the blatant, overt manipulation by the central banks and/or the “PPT” in the Dow30 & SP500, then you are blind, and either can’t or won’t face the reality of trading today in the stock indices”. The bad news? They make M1 signals difficult on tight range days impossible to capture without exposing your account to multiple exponential rates of risk to capture a few points. The good news? They work on our behalf [unknowingly of course] and I know what’s coming, although I don’t know when. The new version 4 algorithm absolutely “nails it” when it comes to trade initiation; it’s then up to probability theory and risk avoidance to liquidate, and to sum it up succinctly, “some days you’re the statute, and some days you’re the pigeon”. On days like today back-in-the-day of the pits, faced with trading conditions somewhat akin to today [not as bad, but close], walking out the door at the end of the day up $1 felt like “victory”. Seriously, that’s how bad this stuff is today; what a frickin’ train wreck.

It's 3:15 P.M. [45 minutes to the close], and we sit on a raft out in the middle of the ocean drifting nowhere; I have no idea where this stuff goes in the next 45 minutes, but whatever they do, they can do it without me. No way am I getting sucked into this toxic waste dump of a trading day.

I made one trade today from the algorithm, and when it came back and threatened being profitable, I liquidated per algo rules. You never, ever let a profit turn into a loss once in a position … and so, I didn’t. Of course, a couple of hours later I missed the 2 blasts up “from nothing” to nothing, which when you consider the range today isn’t saying much, it’s that pathetic. Again, you take what they give you and walk … hanging around taking unnecessary risks gets you exactly what you think it does. Onward and Upward.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach beckons … the dog wants ice cream [of course], so we are gonna hit the DQ first for some soft-serve … we are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

PUTIN WINS IN GEORGIA!!

“GA. – 06 votes for Putin over Pajama Boy … Libtards in Hollywood cry!”

Putin wins Georgia despite California!! … wait … what? … well, nothing like losing Libtards [again] who will now tell the world that either 1) the Georgia & South Carolina special elections really don’t mean anything cuz we say so, 2) Putin hacked the election anyway, using all sorts of Ruskie tricks to get the Rubes in Georgia to vote for Karen Handel when they really didn’t want to, 3) people in Georgia are racist pigs cuz they didn’t vote for “Pajama Boy”, and most importantly 4) “Pajama Boy just wasn’t Libtard ENOUGH  for voters … and next time … yes, next time, Libtards need more “messaging”, they need to be more mentally unglued and angry, buy more tinfoil, get more California donations from Hollywood types who have less common sense than my dog, cuz as everybody but DEMS seem to know, people in Georgia just love fruitcakes from California. [Note: One can always hope & dream Kalifornia does in fact secede and become the socialist state it wants to be … any chance you can take Illinois with you?]

My advice to Libtards is please just keep up what you are doing all over the country, and show everybody every day what you are really about; which is 1) intolerance followed by violence, 2) hate speech towards anybody who doesn’t agree with your communist propaganda, 3) socialist policies that are nothing more than money grabs for special interests, and 4) spoiled children, who when they don’t get their way throw tantrums, hurl insults, and then go create more delusional policies nobody in their right mind would support. Throw in complete tinfoil morons with a capital “M” like Nancy Pelosi, Chucky Schumer, and my favorite John Lewis, who hasn’t done a damn thing in 50 years since he got whacked in the head in Selma, all the while feeding at the tit of the Federal Government, a/k/a “you the taxpayer”. Please, keep up your anti-American, anti-jobs, anti-everything that promotes prosperity, and continue with your du jour nutjob rants; cuz as we all know, everybody is Hitler for at least 15 minutes.

And if a picture speaks a thousand words, here is the CNN desk as the news breaks that, yes in fact, Karen Handel beats “Pajama Boy” in Georgia-06. Anybody but me notice the long  saaaaaaaaaaaaaaad DEM Libtard faces? Wait … what? I thought you guys were simply objective journalists reporting news? Hahahahahahaha …. What a frickin’ joke! And please, next election send in Pelosi, Schumer, Cankles, and the rest of the Socialist misfits in the DNC and spend plenty of George Soros’ money, and tell everyone what a bunch of deplorables they are for not supporting your communist agenda. Throw in the usual gaggle of Hollywood SJW losers, who for the most part are 5 – 10 cards short of a full deck, and I’m sure if you just spend $50 million next time, you can get a couple of more Millennials living in Mom & Dad’s basement too vote for whatever joke of a candidate you decide to try and shove down people’s throats. Best of luck Libtards, and keep up the excellent work!

"Deja vu baby, deja vu!"

Go buy some Argentinian 100 year bonds are cheer yourself up! EXIT QUESTION: “Are those sad faces a result of Libtards losing another election again for the umpteenth time, or is it the realization that “2 minutes after” they get their collective asses handed to them yet again, they’re still stuck with Pelsoi & Schumer and a DNC that is completely out-of-touch with “normal” Americans and is totally dysfunctional, and the hope of ever winning again gets dimmer and dimmer each time this happens”? I’m guessing it’s a combination of both … and this is what passes for journalism … they are Libtard Dems with by-lines, and all the money in the world isn’t going to change one person’s mind when it comes to voting. Can’t wait for tomorrow and hear some of the most outrageous and utter bullshit from “Libtard faithful”  as to why they lost, and lost handily … hell, it wasn’t even close, despite “fake news” polling days before predicting a “Pajama boy” win … yes, polling with over-sampled Libtards to get the result you want … Gee, where have I seen this before in recent memory?

Turning to today’s market … may God help us if today is anything like yesterday; one of the worst trading action days I can ever remember, with every single bit of trade flow either in the first half hour or in the last … not sure if any of the political BS from last night will affect markets today, but I don’t think so … here 3 hours from the open, it looks quiet with the SP500 slightly weaker than the Dow30, but of course that can change quickly as we move to the open … hopefully, we can get some sell side action here early.

Once again, the Chipmunk ramp at the open from an hour or two ago … don’t these assclowns ever learn? …

Today is as clear an indication of manipulation as you will ever see … the drop to take out sell stops, led by dealer LP bank down tick bids, followed by the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] when it’s over ramping the bat excrement out of it when the selling dries up … and when the selling is over, it’s some very quick and fast bid price jumps to the upside leaving you gasping for air … if you’re short you’re screwed … if you want to be long you have to “pay up” to the dealer to get your fill. Still, ranges are small, which means buying these breaks below the NY open aqua line is dangerous; what we need to see are ranges that are > 100+ Dow30 points, something which historically has been easy to accomplish; lately, not so much.

After the PPT comes in and ramps the bat excrement out of this stuff from the upper 30’s to low 70’s in 2 minutes, it’s been down ever since; I almost got long  around 45 on the drop back, but when it rolled over and died @ 16:31, it never came back and was straight down, Now, this brings into play either a double bottom or a new low; of course, we got both, not to mention some dealer shenanigans down hitting the lows that should land somebody in jail, but won’t cuz the regulators are 1) too busy watching midget porn to care [see GAO study if you think I’m joking], and 2) are clueless Twits who don’t have a clue or want a clue.

Two things of importance kept me from getting long down here; 1) lack of range, 2) down drafts on bid prices from the LP, where 3 times they smacked the bid greater than 10 index points between bid prices … the last time going from 21424 bid to 21413 to 21406 to 21402 [the low], and next bid on my machine is 21415 … all this happened in about 3 – 5 seconds … completely normal in the central bank paradigm era where dealer LP’s can fill you anywhere they want, and 3) we then spent over 2 hours approximately 10-12 points chopping above the low of the day. You really think they [LP banks] are letting everybody in the world have 2 hours to get long at the bottom? Well, not me.

And then of course, the PPT shows up again and in 4 minutes the Dow30 rallies 25 points straight up to the 21440 area; and in what can only be a bad dream, when it’s over there is nothing behind it cuz it was all bullshit to begin with, and so we start the slow glacial drift lower. Here about a half hour to the close, and outside of the PPT shenanigans today, there was zero buying interest.

I made one trade today, caught the first PPT rally up to 21490 area where I sold my long position from the mid 80’s; not a lot of profit, but it was the only long position worth taking via algorithm rules; when the up spike came I liquidated. The key is, not caring what happens next. And again, while I’m not looking to scalp, when the algo says sell to liquidate, I sell to liquidate; it’s smarter than me.

Today has seen a slight pickup in intraday volatility, which bodes well for tomorrow and going forward … I would hope these New York ranges can improve some, cuz we most definitely need to see bigger ranges to make some decent money. And speaking of scumbag LP’s, still haven’t heard from the Dow30 LP via Turnkey on our bat guano fill from last Friday … it’s only been 5 days, and the poor dears have to figure out a way to tell us we’re screwed, the fill stands, but have a nice day, OK? You think it’s easy to come up with the right corporate bullshit to feed the trading public?

It’s now after 3:30, and trading is finished no matter what happens, but I’m left with the impression from the price action that the selling is not finished; I don’t know whether it happens overnight or tomorrow morning after the open, but the inability of the PPT THREE TIMES TODAY to keep the market propped up and off the lows has failed. Now, that doesn’t mean the central banks will just walk away and let traders have their way with this stuff, but I can definitely see the 21300’s sometime tomorrow. Hopefully it opens lower tomorrow and goes immediately lower, which should produce a first leg that most likely would be the low of the day; we’ll see.

And once again today, you can see what starts to happen when the market starts to break down after 3:15 ESDT; there simply is nobody there to buy it cuz there is no time left for the market to rally, and that exacerbates the selloff most times. If you get long and it goes against you, anything can happen on the close; who wants to be in that position?

Here, very near the close we see the PPT yet again step up [the 4th time today] and ramp the Dow30 up about 25 points, and in the process save the Dow30 from a new low for the day, in less than 90 seconds on “vapors” cuz they can; sets up an interesting day tomorrow, where the early morning hours will set the tone for the day and give us the clues we are looking for in tomorrow’s action. Onward & Upward.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach calls my name cuz I can hear it! … the dog says “me too”! of course … we are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

STOCK INDICES FEVER!

“Yes, I see the correlation!”

Let’s face it, the world has “stock fever”, and the only cure is MOAR! We had 2 FED Pie Holes pontificate yesterday, and both said different things; one said interest rate increase were no problem, and the other said maybe no more rate hikes until December … maybe. Coincidence? Me thinks not, cuz the game plan is to confuse, deflect, and make statistical arguments that upon closer examination have nothing to do with each other. “Oh wait … I forgot … I’m not supposed to question the faculty lounge members “brilliance”, and I’m supposed to just STFU and buy moar stocks cuz EIFAB! [Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby!]”.

And in the brilliance of the moment, it seems I’m not the only one questioning the world’s sanity when it comes to Argentina’s 100 year government bond. Since brevity is the soul of wit, my response yesterday sums it up rather well … “WTF”!  Seems our old bud Billy Blain over at ZH today gives a pretty good historical snapshot of Argentina’s credit history and is worth a read at the link below in case you missed it this morning:


But, if you think the universe has completely gone insane [it has], read the link below on the 100 year sale yesterday afternoon via ZH:


And, in light of this stunning development, is it any coincidence they come to market now looking for “free money” with an 8.25% coupon yield at Par [changed to 7.125% with the 3.5X oversubscription … see above], with the world [especially the State of Illinois] starved for yield? Again, me thinks not … desperate measures for desperate times. Basically, buy the crap and hope somewhere down the road after an interest payment or two you can pass the bat excrement sandwich to somebody else before the next default; it’s like “financial musical chairs”, without the music, but when SHTF as you most certainly know it will, the sound you will hear won’t be music.

Which leads me to stocks in the Dow30; now, I’m by no means bearish on stocks, and history will tell you as a trader that isn’t the way you “escape to success”, but on the other hand I’m not a very big believer in fairy tales either, and right now this open every day higher from overnight “vapors” and then do nothing ‘till 10-15 minutes from the close where CB’s [central banks] 1) crush the VIX, and 2) ramp the blue chips up, is wearing a little thin. And in the process, makes me wonder who in the hell is buying stocks at this moment? The same ones buying Argentinian 100 year bonds? “Cuz for me, to sum it all up and make it perfectly understandable, the same logic applies here as it does noticing 24 cans of medicinal Vitamin C therapy for 24 hours in a day. Wait a sec … I’m beginning to see a correlation here! And in today’s trading environment, where prices go higher thus creating more demand for stocks going higher [wait … what?], you’re gonna need more cases of the cold stuff to get through the day if you continue to buy into the official FED mantra of “EIFAB!” while you also hold those Argentinian bonds. All together now … stand up & close your eyes and click your heels together 3 times … [Toto, STFU] there’s no place like home, there’s no place like home … and see Dorothy, don’t you feel better now”?

Which brings me back to stock indices in general; today I’m announcing what is in the new trading manual and which all of you can download for free in a couple of weeks when I’m done writing it; namely, I’m replacing the NDX100 with the DAX30 in my coverage and trading. There are a number of reasons for this; 1) the “net” cost to trade, 2) intraday volatility, and 3) time of day.

The business cost to trade the DAX30 is far better [meaning cheaper] than the NDX100; at a 0.6 index point spread with RT commissions our “net” cost to trade is approximately 0.62 Dax30 index points with an index value that is more than 100% higher in notional value than the NDX100 … the kicker is that DAX30 index point price changes are in Euros, not Dollars, so we get an approximate 12% increase in index point profitability as a bonus. However, intraday volatility is the biggest reason; the DAX30 routinely puts in 100+ point ranges every day, while the NDX100 rarely does so or even comes close. The last main reason to make the switch is time of day; the DAX30 is open from 3 A.M. ESDT to 4 P.M. ESDT with the first hour being “pre-market” as the Frankfurt bourse doesn’t officially open until 4 A.M. ESDT. In the fall and winter, add an hour. The point is that the NDX100 mirrors the Dow30, whereas the DAX30 has its own dynamic that starts basically 5 ½ hours before the Dow30 opens. In essence, the DAX30 is the “Dow30 of Germany”, so by adding it and dropping NDX100 as a tradeable candidate, I’m giving the PAMM a more international flavor in terms of big, blue chip stocks. If I trade the DAX30, I’ll use the same criteria as the Dow30; sometime tonight I’ll change the website header to note the change.

I’ve been thinking about making the change for a while now, and it makes perfect sense, since the DAX30 has a whole hell of a lot more in common with the Dow30 & SP500 than the NDX100; while they generally will move in tandem, unless there are specific Euro reasons not to, it isn’t a “tick-for-tick” kind of correlation; but, and here is the main premise, the spread and liquidity are far better at 6 A.M. in the Dax30 than they are in the Dow30 or SP500. For example, if the indices are rallying in the U.S. pre-market, does it not make more sense to “buy the break” in the DAX30 than suffer slippage and a widened spread in the Dow30? So, if I see opportunity in the DAX30, I’m going to be taking the trade and treating it just like the Dow30 in the wee morning hours before the Dow30 opens.

And speaking of the SP500, the LP at Turnkey has quietly raised the spread to 0.4 index points from 0.3 index points … I guess nobody is supposed to notice the 33% rise in their cost of doing business for no damn reason other than pure greed; we’re simply supposed to trade and STFU. And also this morning, speaking of scumbag LP’s, I still haven’t heard a word from the LP via Turnkey on the Friday “off the market” fill of 7 Dow30 points. I’m sure, cuz you know they care sooooooooooo much about customer service and everything … this is the brokerage house that has a “customer first policy”  cuz it says so right on the very front page of their website, so that’s reassuring … only, it doesn’t mean warm spit if it’s just words, and they aren’t there except when they decide to be … so maybe they’ll get around to it sometime here in June or July when they’ve figured it out [which was we got had] and run it by bank compliance, as how best to tell us to go eat a bat excrement sandwich, cuz they aren’t changing anything, but have a nice day, OK? … at that exact moment, and not one frickin’ second sooner, we’ll hear from them. “I hope the doofus bank LP is buying those 100 year Argentinian bonds … please God”?

Turning to today’s market … OMG! … a lower open? [well, maybe, it’s still 3 hours to the NY open, so a lot can obviously happen] … somebody call 911 and let them know … surely some Connecticut Snowflake is long stocks and needs help, and has been successfully conditioned to believe prices can only go higher and that bear markets are defined in minutes … “but the guys on CNBC said …”! And how will the institutional Chipmunks react to this lower open? [Hint: the worst case setup that can happen from a “prices higher later” scenario is if they aggressively buy the lower open and take the Dow30 up fast and furious during the first 5 minutes of trading … we’ll see.]

Here at the open, “a little song a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants”, just to keep things interesting. Another 2 minute bear market followed by a short rally that goes nowhere. An hour and a half into trading and has the VIX hit 3 yet, cuz we got a 46 point range and it sure feels like neither the high or the low is in jeopardy of getting taken out … extremely frustrating. Add to this confusion, and already more than a few times today, first the Dow30 is stronger than the SP500, and then it reverses … then goes back and then reverses … it’s getting near impossible to get any kind of read from this market as the trade flow is simply impossible.

Here at Noon NY, and I thought yesterday was bad … I can’t even describe how bad this is, cuz it’s simply off the charts … seriously, is the VIX at 3? Meanwhile, the SP500 finally sells off 5 index points and the Dow30 goes down … 20 points at its MAX low? … and of course sets off sell stops at the old low by 3 points and then rallies fiercely up 10-12 points on vapors in 20 seconds. And this is the break? And now we got us a whopping 42 point range! … Ohhhh, I’m getting all tingly inside [not] … if this isn’t blatant manipulation, I don’t know what is.

Well, not to worry, cuz the manipulators are not finished yet, cuz now it’s time for the 25 point rally on vapors in 4 minutes [central bank bids adjusted upwards], to mess with the shorts and show them again for the umpteenth millionth time that selling really is a bad idea, and the market goes straight up back into the low 21530’s … you know, the area where the Dow30 was hours ago when the SP500 was 4 index points higher than it is now … confused yet? This is now the norm in the central bank paradigm era, where confusion reigns so hopefully you don’t figure out how bad they are killing things.

Here late in the trading day, this is about as tortuous a decline in prices as you could possibly have … 3 steps down and 2 up, with the occasional ramp to keep anybody from staying in a short position. With the day’s range still as small as you can possibly get, anything can still happen; new lows, new highs, who knows, and the SP500 is offering zero help at the moment. So far, every mini-panic lower by a few points is met with a sharp 5-10 point rally, but these rallies are getting sold. The low is 21499 now, with some century mark stops getting taken out thank you very much LP, who more than likely did it on purpose to line their own account, but that’s another story for another day.

Half hour to the close, this stuff won’t rally [except for the 2 & 3 minute wonder ramps up] and it won’t break [except on minuscule sell stops] … it simply chops, with dealers making a mess of things. On the day, 2 trades total, one good and one bad; the bad one was first and basically cost us our day cuz attempting to put in a “limit” order to buy the Dow30 the order box filled me with “market execution” and we ended up buying at 45; Ok, I thought, we’ll give this a shot and see what happens … what happened is what usually happens when you buy like you’re not supposed to. The other trade came exactly according to the version 4 algo, and sold it on the spike higher; after the dust settles we’re down a few bucks but nothing that can’t be made up tomorrow. So, my fault … should have been more careful with the order box, and didn’t realize when I change the volume figure the type of execution on my box defaults back to “market execution” and doesn’t stay at limit. Live and learn … if you’re trading your own account, make sure as well.

In the new version 4 algorithm, the “cutoff” time for buying breaks is 3:15 P.M. in New York [45 minutes to the close], versus the older versions which was at 2 P.M.; this more accurately takes into account the new central bank paradigm we find ourselves in, and gives us a better chance to capture some of those late day ramps up. Not today, though, and you see what happens after 3:15 when the market starts hitting a new low for the day … it has the potential, especially with a small range, of getting ugly quickly.

Just a lousy trading day, with all the trading action in the first and last half hour … everything else was worse than you can imagine unless you were trading it also, and then you know what I’m talking about. However, this low into the close today, should set up nicely for a move lower in Asia and Europe and give us some good trades tomorrow with volume; let’s hope so. Onward & Upward.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach time! … only after the dog has ice cream of course … we are  outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Monday, June 19, 2017

THE LUNACY CONTINUES

“LP bank to all clients regarding fills… STFU and trade!”

Haven’t heard back from the LP bank on our wonderful 7 Dow30 index point “off the market” fill from Friday; you know, the one where the market is going up and I liquidate on an uptick and then get filled 7 points lower? The one where at the 14 second mark of the minute, in a nanosecond [supposedly] the Dow30 goes from the high bid price of the minute [63 bid] to the low bid of the minute [56 bid, where we are filled]? Yea, that fill. No, the scumbag, THIEVING bank is trying to figure out how to “massage” the message to the brokerage house [Turnkey] to give to me that basically says, “WE [the fox] have examined the trade in question [the hen house] and found nothing … everything is fine and F-ing AWESOME BABY”! And here is where the LP tells the brokerage house to deal with it, cuz they aren’t and never will admit anything for fear of lawsuits, and tells them this is why they get part of the spread for dealing with customers. “Cuz this is the reason LP banks use brokerage houses and why they exist … to remove clients/customers a level away from the bank so they don’t have to answer any questions about their biz practices [a/k/a thieving & stealing] and can keep the operation humming along without delay or hindrance of any kind … and for that, they set up and allow other people to handle the clients/customers and throw them some red meat for their efforts”. Isn’t modern day finance truly awesome?

And once I get an official response back from Turnkey, who have told me senior management is “seriously” investigating thoroughly with the LP in question [giggles], I’ll “copy & paste” the response here on the website for all to see corporate bullshit in all of its full glory … cuz that’s what it’s gonna be. After I pick myself up off the floor laughing my ass off, next questions, though, are going to be “who is the LP bank, and did they take the other side of the trade”? And I’m betting they will not want to divulge that information … any bets? Cuz remember, this is supposed to be ECN / STP to others, not themselves … and if they won’t answer the questions, what does that tell you exactly?

And this isn’t the only “lunacy” going on either; yet once again, the Dow30 has another “vapors” rally starting about 10-15 minutes from Friday’s close, up about 80 index points on absolutely nothing; “have people lost their minds? Has there been a full moon the last 3 months every night I don’t know about? Cuz nothin’ says buy MOAR Dow30 stocks than another terrorist attack in London, the U.S. shoots down a Syrian jet, and every conceivable economic indicator known to man is “unexpectedly” horrible. Oh, and throw in the NDX100 losing about 4% - 5%, the attempted political assassination of Repub’s playing some ball, and no agenda in Washington [like health care and taxes] which simply screams … BUY MOAR! What kind of “lunacy pills” are people taking”?

So, once again this morning the market will open sharply higher, and then proceed to do exactly nothing for about 80% of the day … cuz as I know, the New York session has morphed into nothing more than a “protect & defend” operation from the nighttime hijinks of central bank manipulation … maybe I’m wrong, but up and until they prove me otherwise by taking this stuff sharply lower [which outside the “Dump Trump” day they haven’t allowed in MONTHS cuz “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby”!] this is the official mantra of central banks everywhere until they change their mind.

Here at the NY open, Chipmunks got to be fed high prices on the open … cuz … well, their Chipmunks who’ve never seen a stock price that was too high … once they’re done … you know the rest. Only, funny thing happened on the way to SHTF on the downside … that 3 minute “bear market” [OMG, I can’t believe I’m saying this] that got everybody short, turned around and bit trader’s in the donkey … and now they get to buy higher prices. And,, in what can only be believed in the central planner’s handbook, prices vault through 21500 as the SP500 cleans out stops above 2450. First trade of the day, directly below, takes advantage of the lunacy, and on the spike higher [gee, whaddayya know, I sell the high tick and didn’t get filled 7 points lower!] liquidate. First rule of trading; use the up spikes to liquidate long positions and then NOT care what happens next.


Scanning the news briefly, now I know we are in full retard lunacy, the depths of which I can’t begin to imagine … I am, of course, referring to the “Gold Star” of democracies … F-ing Argentina … which has just announced they are going to issue 100 year government bonds … wait … what? Seriously? “Sure, cuz over the last 100 years this banana republic has established so many defaults it would make your head swim … but now, everything is OK … see”? WTF is all I can say; stupidity does not discriminate. And now about an hour and a half into today’s version of “Clusterfark Madness”, things have slowed down to a crawl … once you take the shorts out and shoot them in the head, what’s left really? Cuz, I don’t have any money left for stocks since I’m shaking the couch cushions and putting my 401(k) into 100 Year Argentinian bonds and don’t have any left for the blue chips … makes sense, right?

Here at Noon in NY, we’re being treated to the glacial drift up … no anything you can legitimately call a “break”, only some M1’s [maybe 2 down in a row, maybe not] that fart around and then … boom! … up we go back to the high. This is a very frustrating trading environment, simply because it won’t really move anywhere; 7 minutes has gone by and the Dow30 can’t even get out of the 2 index point spread … pathetic. And after the market does correct minimally, it takes an hour to go to a new high where the first 2 minutes of the move was about half of the move; who wants part of this? EXIT QUESTIONS: “How is it possible for the Dow30 to be at all-time record highs, on basically a months worth of straight up 800 points, and not have ANY SELLING WHATSOEVER FROM ANYBODY? After making a new high in one minute, for the last 15 minutes the Dow30 has a 3 index point range up here at the high. Somebody explain to me how this is possible without overt, blatant manipulation of prices … cuz if there are any sellers, it’s getting gobbled up without a problem, and then taken higher still almost every single day. When does this lunacy end”?

From a “setup” perspective, it’s always a bad sign for rising prices if the market opens higher, then goes higher, notwithstanding the 3 minute “break” [haha] at the open today; the most likely scenario is an afternoon selloff where nobody has a clue where it stops. Today is one of those types of days, and the problem is confounded by 1) the Dow30 has been up almost a month in a row on the daily candlestick charts, and 2) breaks in the afternoon after 2 P.M. can be really dangerous. If the central banks decide to pull their bids, things can get messy for sure.

Here near the close, again I would have liked to have traded more during the day, but when it isn’t there, it really isn’t there; this is one of the most pathetic trading days I have ever witnessed in my entire career, and if it isn’t “manipulation”, then somebody explain to me the lack of action up or down after climbing 800 points in about 20 days. This complete lack of a trade flow is without precedent in the last 35 years, and there is nothing we can do about it; all told, the range for the Dow30 since Noon [4 hours ago] has been about 25 points [if you caught it right] … it all adds up to everything a central banker could want and love. Add to that, if you don’t liquidate on the spikes up [when we re long], your chances of slippage greatly increase [hey, not that it matters, cuz since Friday’s screw job by the LP, slippage can be there at any time they feel like it.]. But, it is what it is, and like I have said before, patience & discipline the keys for making consistent money in the stock indices. So, we take the trade the market gives us and move on to tomorrow, where hopefully the Turnkey LP in the Dow30 can get up off its lazy ass and address our “off the market” fill by 7 Dow30 points on Friday and at least give me the “happy talk” corporate bullshit response I know we are going to get … besides, I need the laugh to cheer me up. Onward & Upward.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach in 10 minutes … dog has discovered ice cream and now officially survives on bacon & French vanilla … a monster has been created… we are so outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

Friday, June 16, 2017

A NEW TRADING MANUAL ON THE WAY

“I ask him where are my notes … he goes and gets ice cream!”

It’s so hard to find good help these days; I send the dog to get something … and he comes back with ice cream in his ears! It’s probably going to take me about 2 weeks from this weekend to get it done and published, but the outline for the version 4 volatility trading algorithm has been completed, and this weekend I’m going to start writing the text.

The reason it moves to version 4, is that in addition to everything that is in the current version, I’m adding significant new material to take advantage of what I call “The Central Bank Paradigm Shift”; make no mistake about it, this is the last trading paradigm shift we will ever see in MT4 electronic trading, up and until/when/if ever a complete revolution in Western democracies [if you can call them that] takes place and the central bank money cartel’s power & control over creating money via the CNTRL-P machine ends. Up until then, what we see now will be in place until Jesus returns … and I know some of you think I’m probably exaggerating a little here, but I can assure you I am not.

With that in mind, I’m literally required to adjust my approach and method to trading the stock indices [particularly the Dow30, which currently offers the best of 1) lowest “net cost” of doing business (spread + RT commission = 2.2 Dow30 index points), 2) best ranges (meaning higher), and 3) easiest market to escape the spread)] and to implement strategies that can consistently make money and slaughter the benchmark averages over time. All the old rules from “back-in-the-day” are toast; ditto the usefulness of any pre-2016 chart, econometric or financial, that attempts to extrapolate the past into the future; and most importantly, anything and everything emanating from the financial MSM [Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business News, etc.] and/or the FED is completely useless and counter-productive. It’s important to note, however, that the current M1 signals [when they occur] are still operative and effective; the problem isn’t one of effectiveness, but of daily frequency. In the new era we find ourselves in, the central bank planners and manipulators don’t have much use for charts; all they watch is “order flow”, which we have no handle on, and their manipulations destroys the natural order of things as regards to market psychology in a free trading market. Make no mistake, they favor neither longs or shorts, and simply hate retail spec trading accounts with a passion; their goal isn’t to make you money, it’s to 1) punish those that attempt to push the indices lower, and 2) maintain steady upwards price gains into the future cuz their money masters demand it. Because of this, normal market psychology is distorted, and we aren’t getting M1 signals nearly as often as in the past … exactly the way they want it. Everything must appear random and without meaning to be useful and to deflect attention away from their manipulations.

As I will lay out in the new manual, I start out by showing you proof of the manipulations and offer concrete evidence. Of course, it’s circumstantial, since nobody at the FED is gonna send me an email and say, “hey, you got us figured out … congrats!”, but all price action makes perfect sense when seen in the larger scope of the premise that I lay out before you; not simply in the stock indices, but in everything else as well. The simple fact is, the stock indices are the primary beneficiary of central bank manipulation [along with Treasuries of course, but you don’t see U.S. Treasury CFD’s offered for trading] and are the easiest of markets to take advantage in a relative sense.

It’s important for me to do this, cuz you need to be convinced I’m right on the money with my analysis … not simply for the satisfaction of “figuring it out”, but for the necessity of you to know the truth so that you can make money; cuz if you don’t believe it, you won’t follow it, and you won’t make money trading your own stuff. Trust me, nobody knows how hard it is to follow an algorithm or trading method more than me; I’ve detailed on the blog before my struggles at the beginning of my career to follow “the plan” and not resort to my brain or gut feelings, and how it took me a full 3 months to “get my bat excrement together” or go out into the “Pudding Business”. So, I lay out the rationale for the manipulation to better educate you and give you some kind of foundation upon which to trade your own account.

It’s going to be a lengthy introduction, filled with a lot of new material you’ve never seen before or even thought about, but I will attempt to “link it all” in a coherent manner and prove my point that the U.S. 3 major stock indices [SP500, Dow30, & NDX100] will never be allowed to go significantly lower again [more than 3% - 5%] WITHOUT explicit permission from the FED. Of course, “never” is a long time, and especially the risk of geo-political events makes the probability of “surprise” moves down linked to nuclear war, political assassinations, and/or major epidemics are something the FED and the rest of their merry band of central bank followers will have to deal with, but their modus operandi isn’t to “soak up” selling, it’s to let you sell and then punish the living bat excrement out of you by bidding it back up after you’re done, and in the process making you look and feel like a complete idiot.

After the introduction, I will get into the “specifics” of some new rules and trading procedures, which if followed, are profitable damn near 100% of the time; and, I’ll include many more recent examples than in past manuals to make my point, and thus give you the exact blueprint for profits.

As in every mathematical and/or trading system, there must always be inherent limitations; i.e., where does it fail and how would that happen, and more importantly [which I nor anybody else can know] what is it I don’t know that I need to know, in order to avoid situational losses? “Well, if I knew that, I wouldn’t need to ask the question, but it’s always something that you don’t know that has the potential to ruin the party”. False logic will tell you there’s nothing wrong with buying a “7 sigma” [7 standard deviation] event on the downside cuz it almost never happens; reality will then tell you that you were an idiot buying there cuz on it’s way down “36 sigma” [crash of ‘87] you made the mistake of thinking you knew where it had to stop, and that’s where you went wrong and then got buried. As best as I can tell, there is only 1 market event that can lead to losses, and at this point it is theoretical in nature and not practical; that doesn’t mean it can’t become practical and happen, it simply means it isn’t now.

I’ll wrap the whole thing up with some conclusions and observations about retail spec trading habits and how best to prepare to implement the algorithm. More than ever before, it takes discipline & patience to consistently win in trading, and since everybody can get these for free if they want them, it then boils down to trading the very best market for profit with every “home field” advantage you can get for yourself. In today’s trading environment, that’s the stock indices; nothing else even come close.

So, look for it in about 2 weeks [3 weekends from now] … I’ll post about my progress and then announce when it will be available for online viewing and/or download in PDF from a link over in “Download Links” section of the website [right hand column], from my shared files section at box.com. As always, it’s free to everybody … you don’t need to be a PAMM client … simply an interested reader or visitor to the website who wants quality research and/or trading direction from a professional trader over many decades.

Turning to today’s market … options expiration on the open with more than $1 trillion in SP500 & NDX100 options expiring at the CME … explains the very tight and slow day so far to the open … expect some crazy price action ± 15 minutes from the open at 9:30; after that, who knows cuz it’s a Friday.

Options expiration a complete dud … Amazon buying out Whole Foods has caused carnage in the food sector … thought early on we could see prices below 21300 in the Dow30, but despite all the selling, here we are at NOON NY time at 21380’ish on the Dow30 … Plunge Protection Team busy at work in everything … stocks must never be allowed to go lower.

First trade of the day, and I bought 57 and then exactly … and I mean exactly … as the Dow up ticked from 21361 to 21363 [which was @ 13:54:16] I hit the close position button … AND GOT F-ING FILLED @ 21356 … to say I’m a little “hot under the collar” about this is an understatement … and believe me, Turnkey at every management level has heard from me today … 7 point slippage on the downside as the market ticks up 2 points to its high … somebody tell or explain to me how the hell this happens if the LP isn’t a complete crook [which, of course they are]? … the high bid for the 13:54 M1 according to the MT4 Turnkey server is 21363 and the low for the minute is 21356 … so, 14 seconds into the minute with the bid price sitting on the high bid, I get filed at the low bid for the minute with 44 seconds to go until a new M1 … that means the crooked, thieving LP had plenty of time to get out of, or hedge, the bullshit price to us in the PAMM and make more money for themselves at our expense … and so, I guess that also means that these scumbag LP’s are in fact not utilizing ECN / STP processing but trading against customer accounts with their own proprietary account? … Isn’t this what FXCM was busted for in FX a couple of months ago and banned from the business?

I have plenty of questions for Turnkey that I have already expressed with emails to management as well as chat conversations; of course, it’s Friday, and nobody anywhere [brokerage house and/or bank] wants to deal with it, so it has to wait for next week, but trust me, I’m not letting go of this because the stench of this is way, way too strong for me to handle. As I have said repeatedly in the past, the brokerage house community and especially the LP banks view your money as “Muppet money”, and theirs for the taking when they can get away with it. I’m not trying to be a whiny little trading bitch who complains about every single fill, but today’s thievery crosses the line, and I’m not going to stand for it. I want to know who the LP was, and if something isn’t done, I’m considering lodging a formal complaint with the appropriate regulator.

What they did with this first trade is no different than me going into a 7-11 and some guy puts a gun in my face and says, “Gimme the money in your pocket, NOW”!, and I give him $70 that I had, and he then turns around and walks out the door. That’s the feeling I got in my gut right now … of having been robbed for no particularly good reason whatsoever by a scumbag POS.

Second trade was a scalp also, and made back the loss plus commissions lost to the LP thieves in the first trade. Seriously folks, this pisses me off greatly, cuz I did everything right … sold the spike up on the high; not 1 second after the high, but instantly [like 1/10th of a second] cuz I had everything ready to go to liquidate with my finger on the mouse when the uptick occurred… and then to get a 56 fill? … excuse me while I hit something [pit trader feelings coming back into me, and I don’t really want them back]. And simply as an aside, because most likely the LP in the Dow30 is the same one in the SP500, the spread today in the SP500 at Turnkey raised by 33% for no damn reason other than dealer greed; it has gone from 0.3 to 0.4, and I guess you aren’t supposed to notice your cost to trade just went up. They think you are simply idiots folks … truly … that you won’t notice or care, and that we’re just supposed to STFU and eat the bat excrement sandwich every time they serve it up. This kind of crap is why I trade the Dow30 over the SP500, where truth be told the spread should always be 0.3 index points with no commissions, and while I’m not going to war over $2 / 100,000 notional value for a RT commission, that’s what it should be but isn’t; so, when they raise it 33% for no reason and simply keep it there, WHY SHOULD ANYBODY TRUST THEM? WHY?

Looking at the trading action today [minus the thieving of the scumbag LP banks], once again it’s the same old story; everything anybody throws at this market gets gobbled up and prices go higher, whether it’s a glacial drift up or spiking M1’s. Again today, the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] comes into play with the 1) open near the high, 2) go to a low, rally hard, 3) go to another low, and then 4) rally up near the high. How many days in a row have we seen this type of unusual trading action; and in the past how frequent was this?

Well, as I’ve said before, the past doesn’t matter anymore, cuz all that matters now is that the central banks control the show, and they don’t particularly care for charts, ranges, or anything else except order flow; and when the selling from anywhere dries up, they come in and bid the shit out of everything and it goes right back up. In the past FWD’s were very rare in the stock indices; maybe a few times a year … maybe. We’ve seen them almost every day the last 2 weeks … how do you explain this without central bank intervention and/or manipulation?

What has really annoyed me more than anything these past weeks, is the fact that the New York cash session for the Dow30 has become nothing more than a price protection scheme for price movements that happen overnight when everybody is asleep in the U.S. or Caribbean; ranges in the New York session have become ridiculously small, anywhere from 30 -60 points and that’s it. Hell, pre-2016 when the Dow was 5,000 points LOWER, the index had weeks where it would go ± 1,000 points and nobody got their “big girl panties” bunched up at all. Now, the Dow30 isn’t even allowed by its money master central banks to go 100 lower without the Plunge Protection Team showing up and making a spectacle of ramping the market up on spikes to teach the shorts a “lesson”. WTF! And as we all know, get on the wrong side of one of these moves, and it could be “one & done” for the day since nothing happens for approximately 75% of the day … it’s an insult to “chop” for cryin’ out loud.

Here, with about 2 ½ hours to go to the close, after the shorts have been buried again for the umpteenth millionth time in the last few months [seriously, are there any shorts left who still have money to trade?] on a couple of blasts off the low earlier all the way up to 21397, some drifting lower price action has set in and we now see the market around the 21365 - 70 area. Really, the Dow30 may just … are you ready for this? … may just close lower today!! OMG! Somebody call 911 and have this reported.

All-in-all, a disappointing day made worse by Turnkey’s LP bank in the Dow30, who apparently thought we needed non-consensual sex at about 10 A.M. this morning, and we had to pay for it. “Yea, it’s what they do … it’s who they are … and we aren’t the only ones they’re doing it to either”. Once we got that burst off the bottom, there weren’t but a few trades worth taking, and I ended up with very minimal gain for the effort, but at least it was profitable. As I stated earlier, everything is compounded by a lack of decent daily New York session ranges [not the daily range]; today in the Dow30 about 70 points, but it’s open at a high, go to a new low, then to a new session high, then back to the middle, type of trading scenario [in other words, the FWD in all its glory]. And what these very tight ranges mean, of course, is that your “trading room” for error just got way smaller, and that has the effect of chopping you up into pieces. And, of course, just to prove my point, here at the close a “vapors” ramp up to the low 90’s to close the Dow30 green, cuz as we all know, if the Dow30 is anywhere near unchanged on the day [like 50 points or less], the manipulators will ramp it on the close. What more evidence do you need than what we’ve witnessed this week?

As we move to the close of another week of trading, I hope everybody can see the blatant manipulation taking place in U.S. asset markets, especially bonds and the stock indices. We can’t trade U.S. Treasuries, cuz no offshore brokerage house that accepts U.S. clients has them in CFD format; that would simply piss off the CME and start a firestorm with the Treasury Dept., and we can’t have that. And while the NDX100 has taken on some heartburn & indigestion, the SP500 and the Dow30 remain firmly on their upward trajectories; what it’s gonna take to get them lower I have no idea, but as we have seen this week, every single time without fail the market goes down an inch, central banks and the PPT are there to end it and force prices higher. It’s the new paradigm; the “Central Bank Trading Paradigm”, and the new manual coming up here shortly is going to tell you how to trade it for MAX profit.

The evidence is abundantly clear for everybody to see, and I will admit the new rules for buying and liquidating will be hard to implement for some people cuz their guts will be screaming “NO” at the exact moment the truth of the matter is “YES”. But, it’s simply what you have to do to be consistently profitable. In the PAMM trading, I will implement the new algorithm starting Monday, June 19, even though you won’t get a copy of it until finished; you will see higher volumes and more trading along with better consistent profitability. Outside of what’s in the current version, there are other buy criteria to take advantage in the Dow30. I’ve seen enough evidence over the last month or two to convince me it’s the proper way to trade and make money every day given the new paradigm we find ourselves in whether we like it or not.

Seriously, I don’t think I’ll ever have to write another manual cuz I don’t see central banks giving up control of asset markets worldwide anytime soon; why would they, they got all the power and money, so who’s gonna stop them? My intent, here at the start, is to be as thorough with charts and examples as I can possibly be without over doing it so people get bored, and to that end the manual may be quite a few pages in length. But, not to worry, cuz I will include a short one page printable summary that you can use to make things easy. Within a couple of days you won’t even need it if you trade your own account, it’s that easy. I really think you are going to like it. Onward & Upward my fellow travelers!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Beach in 10 minutes, if the dog can get his face out of the ice cream box which he is convinced has more in there somewhere … we are so outta here … until Monday.

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

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