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Friday, May 25, 2018

CABLE: WHERE VOLATILITY GOES TO DIE

“If you trade Cable, you’ve had this look alot the last 5 weeks!”

Is anybody surprised, that the Friday before Memorial Day Monday is a bust 
and complete waste of time? … once the U.K. GDP numbers “yawned” the 
market to sleep at 4:30 A.M. EST., what else is left but some “stop hunting” via 
spikes up & down, shit fills, and a market that can’t move? “Well, welcome to 
Cable”.

Directly below, today’s GBPUSD M5 candlestick chart with algorithm.


Take away a couple of M5 candles, and what you’re looking at is a complete 
trading mess … no volumes, no liquidity, volatility compressed to the point 
where I don’t think it can get much lower intraday, ranges that are a minimum 
of 50% lower than normal in our 12 hour window of trading, and most 
importantly while watching the trade, is the fact that the HAL9000 has been 
programmed for max slippage. 

The algorithm needs and demands a minimum of volatility to be effective 
… well, this ain’t it, where everything is a coin flip, and every trade you make is 
at risk for a 5 - 7 PIP blast in your face in seconds, and with max slippage in 
force, the reward / risk ratios suck … throw in 30 - 40 PIP ranges in 12 hours,
and it’s a nightmare … hopefully, this shit ends soon, and the market can get 
back to normal, cuz this “tail risk” low volatility creates all kinds of unintended 
consequences for traders, and none of them are good. So, another day of 
“dullsville” and treading water, while we wait for normalcy to return.

Two trades today … PAMM up slightly, about $17 bucks and some change 
… when it won’t go, I got no choice but to liquidate and cover or risk getting it 
shoved up my nose on a spike from nowhere.

So, it’s the same story we’ve faced since May 2 … rallies on vapors or “Brexit” 
bullshit sprinkled in at the appropriate time when the scumbag LP bank’s find 
themselves long , with an occasional spike higher like we had with retail sales 
… and when that “supernova” explodes on pure short covering, the market 
then dies and starts the grind lower one drop of blood at a time, making 
staying short painful at best. And, this comes amid dwindling volatility which 
makes everything worse, cuz if you’re wrong it’s very difficult to get the losses 
back.

Volatility is the lifeblood of trading … without it, you tread water until it 
returns, simple as that. So, we wait it out, keep the powder dry, don’t do  
“stupid shit” [like chase price higher/lower], and take whatever the market 
offers until volatility returns … which, trust me, it will, and most likely uncoil 
some truly unreal ranges in the process, and kill a few folks.

Monday is a Holiday, of course, in the U.S., but Europe will ignore it … so, 
we’ll see what happens Monday … I’ll post Monday, so until then mi amigos, 
I’m outta here … time for a cold one … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great Holiday weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

  





 
 

Thursday, May 24, 2018

FALSE ALARM … RESUME HIBERNATION

“A/K/A Cable trading instructions!”
 
From today, GBPUSD M5 candlestick chart with algorithm directly below.
 

Again, for like the zillionth time, Cable comes to life minutes before the retail 
sales numbers in the U.K. … Asia has been dead all night, but now comes the 
manipulators again right before a major economic release that will move the 
market, and Cable gets “gaslit” again upward into the report, where as you can
see, it jumps about 25 PIPS in less than a millisecond … add a few more PIPS 
for “shits & giggles”, and it’s pretty much a wrap for the next 10 hours.

Yesterday I was hopeful this kind of trading action was over … “yea, never mind, 
Ok”? Not much to say about a market that can’t move to save its lousy life, and 
again we find ourselves on the daily candlestick chart with another ‘doji” 
spindle … 10 minutes after the retail sales numbers, there’s no range, no 
volume, even worse liquidity, and of course slippage from the scumbag LP’s 
goes into hypersonic gear, cuz they got to make money somehow, and since 
there aren’t any large corporate orders to front run and screw over, retail gets 
the nod and the HAL9000 gets new marching orders for fills.

And really, boiling it all down, it’s the same old shit … just a different day, 
where no matter what happens there’s no follow through at all … it’s spike up, 
spike down, lay around for a while, rinse & repeat endlessly all day, and 
through it all hand out slippage that would make Vito Corleone blush with 
envy. “Sure … tell me again about market conditions”. 

Three trades today … PAMM down slightly, collectively about $20 … again, 
treading water, while this market can’t make up its mind what to do or when to 
do it.

As I’ve said before, all we can do is wait it out … increasing volume & leverage 
is “stupid shit” in this type of trading scenario, cuz the slippage will be worse, 
and the market won’t let you make anything back … all that happens is that the 
hole gets deeper and wider. Add to that the increased slippage, and it’s an 
extreme losing proposition.

Today sees 90% of our 12 hour trading day with about a 30 - 40 PIP range 
… historically, it’s well over 100 PIPS, so that will give you some indication of 
the bullshit level that is currently the fashion du jour in Cable … someday we 
get back to normal; “well, this day wasn’t it”. Nothing really left to say, cuz the 
entire day after the retail sales report was simply a “chopfest”.

On to tomorrow, where GDP is out in the U.K. at 4:30 A.M. EST … maybe that 
can move things … “how about it Mr. Market”? In any event, we’ll see what 
happens … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

  
 







 

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

THE FX “YO-YO”

“Do it right, or you might as well do this!”

A short post today, cuz it’s another U.K. “data dump”, and the FED Minutes 
this afternoon at 2 P.M. EST … and who knows what the Twits at the Eccles 
Building are gonna come up with.

From today’s action, it appears the range “drought” might be over … today’s 
range a little deceiving, cuz 40 - 45 PIPS came from early Asia, and 2 M1’s 
where the first went down 20 PIPS in less than a second, and the second M1, the 
release of disappointing U.K. inflation numbers and the market dumped 40 
PIPS in a millisecond … that being the case, the “so far” range today of 137 
PIPS sees about 100 PIPS of that being untradeable … “it isn’t as great as it 
first appears, although the intraday action is much better than previous days, and 
the market has some “flow” to it that it has noticeably lacked recently … so, I’m 
hopeful this “PIP drought” is over, and Cable can get back to normal”.

As is usually the case, the FED ruins the early afternoon trade with their 
minutes release, so now it’s just a matter of waiting for that … we’ll see if there 
are any surprises. Minutes out ...  a nothing burger; a little short covering in 
Cable due to the fact no news of surprise hawkish interest rate increases, and 
that’s giving some heartburn to those who decided to stay short into the 
release.

Tomorrow sees BOE Chief Honcho Carney speaking at 4 A.M. EST, followed 
quickly at 4:30 A.M. EST by retail sales numbers, and if we can keep the  
“mojo” going, we in all likelihood can have another decent day of trading 
activity.

Two short trades today … PAMM up a few bucks north of 0.1%.

I’m a little surprised the inflation numbers “tanked” the market … they would 
have beat the consensus forecast, if not for lower airline ticket prices, and even 
the clueless math whiz kids at the Bureau of Unicorns & Fairy Tales U.K, admit 
it’s a seasonal decline every year when Easter comes early … so, it is what it is, 
but it could be the source of the large retracement seen since it came out.

As we’ve seen lately, being long this market can get you decapitated quickly 
without warning … some of the spikes down off rallies were particularly 
vicious, but I would remind traders, “nothing grows to the sky and nothing goes 
to zero either … and what that means, is somewhere in here [tomorrow, Friday, or 
early next week … a good bet would be the Monday Memorial Day Holiday in the 
U.S.], coming off a low, this stuff is due for one hell of a move higher … I dunno 
what the “news” catalyst will be to light this “dry Christmas tree”, but this market 
is due for a "clean out" on the upside that has some temporary legs lasting longer 
than 10 minutes … however, it’s gonna have to come off a low, and any “open 
higher go higher” scenario early isn’t gonna work … the ‘setup” here is key, and 
it has to catch shorts napping and trap them viciously … so, be very careful about 
remaining short for too long and just assuming it’s moving lower”.

We’ll see what kind of action tomorrow brings, but I was concentrating today 
on watching the “flow” of price as it moved … and noting that it was 10 times 
better than in the last couple of weeks … that’s what we need to see for larger 
intraday ranges, and more importantly better trading opportunities. Again, 
“news” releases dominate the range, and that’s always unfortunate but 
something we simply live with and accept … it isn’t so much the morning stuff 
from the U.K., but the afternoon things from the FED that really distort 
trading on days they are the market’s focus. With the better trading conditions 
comes better trades, and today saw 2, although the first didn’t add much 
… tomorrow should continue that trend. 

All told, let’s hope we’ve seen the last of the “doji” family for a good long while 
… today’s range almost the entire high close to low close range of the previous 
15 trading days! … think about this for a second, and it’s a head shaker! … and 
with that, I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!