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Tuesday, June 25, 2019

THE BEGINNING OF THE ENDGAME IS HERE

“Asking the important questions in life!”

Just when you think Asia can’t possibly go any more “full retard” in their quest
to push gold higher, along comes last night with another $20 blast to the upside.
Even in 2011, I don't recall it getting this frothy, this quickly … but no matter,
we’re here and it’s just beginning.

The important question, though, is asking, “is it different this time”? … and
before reflexively simply saying “NO”, there are some considerations to consider
that might change the balance of power in gold’s favor … 1) the world is in far
deeper debt than in the 2008 - 2011 bull run, 2) over $12 trillion in negative interest
rates on sovereign debt and climbing daily, 3) much greater political hostility,
4) China, 5) gold is under owned relative to other asset classes like never before,
especially in the U.S., and 6) central bank QE cannot solve the world’s problems
and only digs the hole deeper.

Add ‘em all up, and we are indeed in a new gold paradigm … the really good news
isn’t that gold has rallied sharply over the last several weeks … no, the good news
is that 1) volatility is higher and most likely will stay elevated for a very long time,
and 2) trading ranges will be much higher going forward than previously seen
… and that means profitable trading, instead of being “stuck in the mud” with shit
ranges and dealer "scumbaggery".

Make no mistake, the “scumbaggery” will always be here as long as the large New
York & London banks run things … that shouldn’t be a surprise … but, the agenda
for gold can’t be controlled any longer, and the fiscal irresponsibility of
governments is being laid bare before investors like never before … they’ll take
their “ounce of flesh”, but they can’t control the ranges or volatility like in the past
… and remember, the higher we go the more volatile the market.

Gold two months ago looked dead … no interest, no volumes, no liquidity, and
scant investor appeal … amazing what happens when the world wakes up and
discovers en masse that governments are full of shit and can’t be trusted,
something we’ve known like forever! As I have previously stated on the blog,
“gold doesn’t matter until it does”! … well, it matters now … and I don’t see it
backing off anytime soon in the volatility department … we are just at the very
beginning of this move higher, and now that the 6 - 8 year resistance levels got
taken out rather quickly, it should make for good trading going forward for a very
long time … all I can say is “bout EFFING time”!

The “Chuckleheads” overnight ramped the range to over $20+, before getting
nervous and seeing gold go to the lows for the day so far … so, not the one way
street they usually find themselves driving down … to say that gold needs a “rest”
is an understatement, but like always when it comes it will be quick and vicious,
taking no prisoners and filling sell stops at the low of the move. New York is
coming in now … bid/offer spreads can be expected to be a few pennies higher,
given the increased level of volatility, but shouldn’t … I repeat shouldn’t present
any problems for the market … however, knowing the scumbag bullion dealer
banks, they’ll use any excuse under the sun to pad their pockets … oh, it’s good
to live in interesting times!

Today’s action rather quiet, given recent days, until Fed Pie Hole Bullard throws
some cover for the scumbag bullion dealer banks [who no doubt are short a
shipload] and lets it slip that a 50 basis point rate cut at the end of July “ain’t
gonna happen” … and Bingo,Bango, BOOM!, down goes Frazier to a new low for
the day, at which point banks can’t buy enough to cover shorts … don’t you wish
you had somebody that would cover for you like the FED does with U.S. banks?

I should have pointed out yesterday, that our new algo modifications will start
tomorrow … I always do trading in my account first, to make sure changes are in
fact warranted in real time, and not simply being biased by hindsight … so today
sees me & the crew here trading their frickin’ brains out and making a shipload of
money … yup, it is better than excellent. Tomorrow sees our first full day
implementing the algo for the PAMM.

My only hope is that gold stays this volatile in the weeks/months/years ahead of
us … these type of ranges, whether they occur in Asia or not, are great for gold.
Given what I said above, I think it has a very good chance of remaining like this
for a very long time … “about time the world woke the F up and figured it out”!

So, I might be in Asia tonight, we’ll see what China does on the open … otherwise
onto tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas




Monday, June 24, 2019

THE STUPIDITY STARTS IN EARNEST

“Pandering to the “Free Shit Army” never looked so good!”

Time for the clown car of DEM 2020 candidates, to showcase their socialism “street
creds” and try and win the hearts of tinfoil Loons everywhere … you just can’t be left
enough … from reparations for being “gay”, to Bernie Bros idea of taxing trading to
pay for “free college” and wipe out student loans … well, if you’re 20 and as stupid
as I think you are, it all looks pretty good … until you get a job, and then not so
much.

Bernie Bros latest boondoggle is sure to please Snowflakes everywhere, as that
$300,000 transgender climate change degree from State U., where you learned less
than nothing, could be forgiven … too bad somebody else gets to pay for it, right?
… but no matter, cuz those who trade stocks, bonds, derivatives can afford it
… Bernie says so! … EXIT QUESTIONS FOR THE SOCIALISTS: “And you think
people are gonna sit around and just pay this idiotic tax? … the U.S, is already a
backwater when it comes to finance as it is, thanks to one Chalky Soetero and the
Dodd/Frank monstrosity passed in 2010 … so whatever you think you’re gonna
raise, you won’t, so where does the money come from?”

Oh, that’s right, we just print it cuz it doesn’t matter … and the Ponzi scheme just
gets better & better, until one day the entire house of cards comes crashing down,
and you can implement your Stalinist dreams of total control over everything
… for the children of course.


Gold in New York starts today with another $10+ range … well, you know what that
means … the “Chuckleheads” in Asia pressing their luck, cuz this time for sure it
has to go higher … these people need help.

And so, we start above 1400, and the questions remain, “what next”? … higher
highs? … no corrections, just straight up? … and the NY banks are fine with this?
“OK, time for me to show you that beachfront property I got waiting for you in
Kansas! … super deal, and the sunsets! … you’ll never believe the sunsets ‘till you
see ‘em glistening over the water”!

And even though we’ve just started the day, we’re starting to see the same M.O.
[modus operandi for you Obama voters] in gold I’ve mentioned before … “crawl
slowly up, and then the brick to the face down” … all other markets rather quiet,
but a little upwards momentum in FX against the dollar … not much happening in
oil or the stock indices as well … so, other markets not providing much impetus
for market movement, and with the G20 coming up into the weekend, it will get
quiet quickly as the week wears on into the weekend.

Mid morning in New York, and there is no backing off of this stuff whatsoever
… every time it backs off in the slightest, it comes roaring back quickly to another
new high … this is not going to end well. Now we’re headed towards the New York
PM, and when [not if] gold has decided enough is enough, this is where the
decline will pick up speed and hurt people … then the “Chuckleheads” in Asia
can join the downdraft, and we’ll be looking at a good short term bottom … what
we see now, though, is getting very frothy.

So, nothing really new today, except we haven’t hit the saturation level for gold
yet … don’t blink your eyes, cuz when it comes it comes like lightning, and by the
time you see it, it’s too late. And since I don’t “FOMO”, the PAMM will wait for
better long opportunities.

I’ve made some changes to the algorithm, and starting tomorrow we will see
some more trading … a very small change to the number of possible “false
positives”, but in an environment of good daily ranges [over $13 - $15], it pays
off better than being more conservative like I have been.

Onto tomorrow, we’ll see what happens … until then mi amigos … Onward &
Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


Sunday, June 23, 2019

SUNDAY UPDATE: CAN GOLD HOLD OR EXTEND?

“Asking the gold market for money!”

History says we need to consolidate and shake out some longs … otherwise, the
ride down when it comes is gonna produce “butthurt” all over the place … we’ve
been up strong 5 weeks in a row ...the last time we had 6 up weeks in  row was
late summer 2011, on our way to the September 2011 all time high just above
$1900 … do you remember what happened after that? … and it wasn’t pretty
either.

A lot has changed since then, almost none of it better … sure, we could go
rocketing higher from here, especially if central bankers get dumber than they
already are and plow us right into negative interest rates, but gold is getting ahead
of itself here and is assuming an awful lot before anything has even happened yet.
Let’s just hope Asia can stay relatively quiet.

Directly below, this weeks 20 Day Range MA charts.

click on any chart to enlarge



As you can see, daily ranges are expanding in gold faster than ranges in the New
York session … quite frankly this is never good, meaning New York is the
manipulative laggard.

Onto the week … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas





Friday, June 21, 2019

ASIA GOES FROM RETARD TO FULL FOMO

“Yes grandma, it was nuts … they always buy the top … ALWAYS!”

Yea, I saw it … and my only thought was, “this is gonna end badly” … and sure
enough, a couple of hours later we get the round tripper to a new low for the day,
and all the sell stops get hit off, and “blah blah, yada yada”, and here we sit at
sunrise New York with an almost $40 range, and a whole lotta damage having
been done … now what?

Well, a whole lotta chop shit is about to descend on gold … it being Friday, and a
Quad witching expiration day on Wall Street, a lot of weird stuff will be happening
today … order books in gold have been destroyed, so there isn’t anything to go
after … but as I said yesterday, if this stuff keeps going higher from here without
correcting some, it’s gonna get a whole lot uglier than we’ve seen so far on the
downside when it comes. That doesn’t mean gold can’t go “Palladium”, simply
that people that pile in late are gonna get torched. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not
implying I think gold goes tapioca, just cuz the technicals may look ugly, just that
things need to slow down, or else the risks to the market will become violent.

And when you get violence, it’s very tough to make money, cuz your main
concern has to be to not get “whacked” … not from being wrong, but from the M1
spike nightmare downdraft that goes $2 - $5 lower before you can blink your eyes
… and by its very nature, this violence tends to make market conditions less than
ideal … get caught in one of these, and nobody will need to explain it to you, cuz
you’ll get the message loud and clear.

So, again today we get caught in the frenzy of the “Chuckleheads”, where you
have to wonder just when they figure out they’re the “chumps” at the poker table
… from the looks of it, probably never, cuz they keep repeating the same trading
mistakes over and over again through the years and decades. And it leaves us
with nothing to “hang our hat on” from a statistical perspective, cuz both sides
of the order book got blown out, and who’s left to actually trade this stuff on a
Friday? … looking at the daily candlestick these last couple of weeks, note how
many”tails” are on the upside of these candles … not coincidentally, almost all
of them.

One thing traders can learn from all of this, though, is that during the night the
market trades unhindered, and actually acts like a “give and take” real market
… New York shows up, and it’s nothing but spikes from hell [up & down] and
M1’s that go crickets … quite frankly, it’s crawl, crawl up and then it’s a brick to
the face down … which red candle M1 is the one that keeps going and will hurt
you? … of course, no way of knowing, and it comes so viciously you got no
chance once it starts … I think we simply need to ban New York banks from
trading gold!

Meanwhile, over in stocks land, nothing keeps the Ponzi scheme alive better
than levitating stock prices as economic indicators plummet … don’t worry, the
FED has your back [until they don’t], and bad news is good news cuz STFU and
buy MOAR! And here we are, and stocks are at recorder-er-er highs, and the
FED’s gonna embark on an easing cycle cuz the economy is shit, with world
economic conditions deteriorating faster than snow melting in July … what an
effed up world the manipulators have created.

Mid morning and gold is chopping around in the 1390’s … there needs to be a
“flush of the toilet” in the morning here, not the afternoon … we get this stuff
tanking lower in the P.M., and there’s no time and buyers will back away … in
any event, right now gold needs to back off, or as I said yesterday, it’s gonna be
uber ugly to the downside when it comes … and trust me, when everybody hits
the exit gates at the same time, cuz they think they can liquidate their long
positions and then get back long cheaper, the bullion dealer banks will exact a
huge amount of “womp womp” during the selling, and from there New York can
see a decent rally … until then? … nope!

Gold chopping back & forth in the 1390’s via headlines crossing the tape … longs
mini panic sell … 10 minutes later after another headline … shorts mini panic buy
… the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD if it could laugh, would surely be doing so,
as the scumbag bullion dealers jack this stuff around and force people to
“pay up” for being wrong … rinse / repeat … is the circus hiring?

Another trading day ruined by the “Chuckleheads” in Asia … and not only do we
have a $28+ range, we have a large reversal day as well … first up big, then down
big, then back to the middle … again I ask, “what is anybody to do with this after
last night’s action”? … it’s a complete bucket of shit … granted the chop has
better scope & range than normal chop, but that’s a two edged sword … yes, you
may be able to escape with some profit, but when you’re wrong it exacts a far
more terrible loss than whatever gain you expected cuz of the viciousness of the
turns … hopefully, the “Chuckleheads” have run out of money for next week and
action can return to more normal parameters.

Don’t misunderstand, unless there is news to support it, I’m not expecting a huge
drop in gold … but lately, normal trading patterns have been terribly skewed, and
not just cuz of the feckless FED … the fact that in 8 months markets have gone
from pricing 5 rate hikes to now 4 rate cuts, sees expectations resulting in a
difference of 9 rate cuts! … and gold is only up about $200 on that? … the sell
side manipulation here is gigantic, and getting New York to cooperate along with
the “Chuckleheads” not panicking is getting to be a problem. Cuz once they get
everybody long, the history of gold says “goodnight” to your money! … this time
will be no different! … so yea, caution is advised here, simply cuz the spikes
lower come fast and are vicious, and don’t take nearly the time to go down as the
market takes to go up. In any event, a move back down to the former resistance
is warranted, about $20 - $30 below where we’re at now … anything under 1340,
though, and gold looks to be in trouble.

Bottom line, though, today is simply a flip of a coin in New York  … you can’t get
out fast enough if you’re long or short, and you can’t win against the bank in the
scalping game cuz of spreads & slippage … sure, it’s a Friday and Fridays are
usually different than other days, but it all goes back to the idiot “Chuckleheads”
and how they are faded by the New York bullion dealers, or at the very least
minimized … it’s why gold has destroyed more traders over the years than all
other markets combined.

Blog update on Sunday … next week should provide us with some excellent
trading opportunities … looking forward to it … until Sunday mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas