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Monday, January 27, 2020

DEAR FED: “CHECK YOUR HUBRIS AT THE DOOR!

“Meanwhile, over at “Manipulation HQ”, it’s biz as usual!”

Since October … yea, way back then … try and remember, if you can go back that
far, a vast 3 months ago, the FED has “CNTRL-P’ed” about the same amount of
money the entire Federal government’s budget for 1981 under “Ronaldus
Maximus” … in 3 months … so now, given the fact they are the architects of the
current stock bubble and have caused the problem, they will be first in line to
“DEMAND” they be the ones to fix it … “they should be, in a sane world, taken out
back and shot at sunrise” … but cuz they’re the “smartest people in the room”
[just ask ‘em, and they’ll gladly tell you that], and bonafide faculty lounge Twits,
they muddle along and will only make everything far worse.

“But I was told on Thursday & Friday, by government types everywhere, that the
coronavirus was “contained” and everything is fine … come Monday morning
and people worldwide are voting with their feet & pocketbook … the lesson here
is simple: whatever it is that government tells you, run away from that as quickly
as possible and expect the exact opposite”.

Quite frankly, markets wouldn’t be in the mess they’re in this morning if it wasn’t
for the clueless, idiotic, absurd, insane, and delusional thinking over at the FED,
that has allowed this asset bubble to expand far greater than anything seen in
history … “tulip bulbs got nothing over this crew”! … now the back “6” of the
“88/6/6” trading paradigm shows up, and it will interesting to see how the morons
at the FED can fuck this up in spades … cuz you know they will … somehow,
some way, they’ll find the exact wrong thing to do to make matters worse, like
they always do.

If current price holds up at the NYSE open, “Ma & Pa” across the world are
looking at approximately 3% losses on their portfolios in passive investment
schemes like SPDR’s for the DOW30, NDX100, & SP500 … at what point do they
“puke”? … remember, it takes a full day to redeem, so waking up this morning
and emailing Fidelity and telling them you want out of the SPY ETF, gets you out
tomorrow morning, not today … and if the trillions in these funds get nervous,
look the fuck out on forced selling at the NYSE open … question is, where’s the
collective “puke point”? … is it down -4%, -8%, or -10%+? … the bigger point,
though, even if you argue not now, at some point it’s gonna happen, and given
the profligate nature of the people in charge of the CNTRL-P machine, the
question still stands … and what do the Twits do when there is literally trillions
in assets to sell at the open, but no volumes or liquidity in the bottom tier of
stocks in the ETN’s, ETF’s, or mutual funds … gazillions to sell, and no bids?
… good luck.

And isn’t it amazing, the slide in stocks stops almost to the minute the sun
comes up in Gotham and the “early bird” criminals on Wall Street get to their
desks to enjoy some “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] magic … “did you think
they’re gonna hand the money to foreign banks? … nope, just wait for Squid,
JPM, and the other assorted criminal types to get in off the commuter train,
before the “wink wink, nod nod” bullshit goes into effect and the money
laundering operation goes into full retard mode … why wait for the open?
… now, who’s up for green by the close?

What an absolute fucking manipulative joke of an opening at the NYSE
… “manipulate much”? … the fun never stops when there are no consequences
for your actions, even as the entire world melts down economically, especially
China … “oh wait, I forgot … it’s “contained” so no worries cuz “Everything Is
F-ing Awesome, Baby!”, cuz it’s all a video game or somethin’, right?” … to call
this a “market” is a travesty against language and common sense.

Well, this most definitely isn’t how I wanted this week, or day, to start out … not
the algorithm’s fault … my fault … and as a result of a misplaced order ticket that
got clicked when it shouldn’t have, it leads to a few percent loss in the FX
CHOICE PAMM / MAM … after that some legit algorithm trades, along with the
Turnkey PAMM / MAM that was up 0.2% today in the DOW30 … I wanted to slap
myself, and for the record the Mrs. & the dog immediately volunteered to do it
for me, but I declined the invitation … not the first time, but hopefully the last
time. Oh well, I suffer as well cuz my money is in there to … water under the
bridge, and I’m experienced enough to know not to do “stupid shit”, so I simply
forget about it and move on to tomorrow … “am I a dumb ass? … Yes, next
question”.

Trading action today really sucked … there were a couple of good algorithm
signals, but with the index jumping around 10 - 20 points at times in seconds,
the bid/offers not the best, and there was some slippage … and that leads to not
very good action given the overnight trade … with Asia closed tonight, it will be
interesting to see what transpires in the new day … until tomorrow mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas


Sunday, January 26, 2020

SUNDAY UPDATE: STATISTICS MATTER!

“What you trade AND where you trade MATTERS!”

Directly below, this week’s ‘VIX MATRIX TABLE” … take a good, hard look.

click on ANY chart or table to enlarge

I’ve added a new column, that takes into account the average bid/offer spread
when trading … WTI Crude Oil & DOW30 CFD’s trade commission free at FX
CHOICE, but everything else is calculated from PRIMEXBT … one major item of
interest regarding crypto, is that these figures are for trading approximately
$2,000 notional amount of the crypto pair, which is not very large in the scheme
of things … climb higher, and the percentages of what it costs to trade relative
the 20 Day Range MA go north quickly.

And so, looking at the above table, what jumps out at you? … well, it’s the
TOTAL COST to trade the DOW30 at FX CHOICE relative to its 20 Day Range MA
… at less than 1%, it’s one of the very best CFD’s out there that has everything a
trader should be looking for, which is 1) above average IVIX [intraday volatility],
2) most days see 90% - 95% of the days range confined to NYSE trading hours
[9:30 AM EST - 4:00 PM EST], which is a 6 ½ hour day … the more the movement
in less time, the better the market, and 3) a fairly stable bid/offer spread with LP’s
that fill orders in about 300 - 500 milliseconds … not the fastest on Earth, but
good enough to convince me I’m not getting screwed by an MT4 or MT5 robot,
meaning I’m being filled at the market price from a legitimate LP.

I like the fact that at FX CHOICE, the DOW30 CFD is 10X the index, so a 1 lot
volume is = to approximately $290,000 … in addition, the PAMM /MAM is cleared
to trade up to 100 lots, and if I need more at some point, all I have to do is tell the
banks what I want, and they’ll up the ante with no problem … by comparison, the
DAX30 at FX CHOICE is one of the very best around as well … sadly, it’s not the
same with either the SP500 or the NDX100, which have far higher costs and make
both unacceptable for trading.

Now look at crypto, and when you consider it’s only for $2,000 worth, why on
Earth would you pay these exorbitant fees in order to trade it? … I can see some
BTC trading, even with its relatively high cost cuz it moves, but the others? … I
mean seriously, take in fully the percentages involved here … you’d literally have
to be nuts to trade either EOSUSD or XRPBTC … each trade is gonna be OVER
10% of the day’s most likely range? … wut? … by comparison would you trade
gold with a $17 spread, or the DOW30 with a 27 index point spread?

Directly below is the FX CHOICE PAMM / MAM uptodate results. Since it’s the start
of the new year, why not start from January 1, 2020 and go forward from there?


Directly below, a statistical breakdown of key data for 2019. I’ve also posted it
over in “Download Links” for future reference. 


Directly below, our 20 Day Range MA’s broken down by group.

STOCK INDICES





All have a slight “skew” to the upside, due to the “war that wasn’t” … this will get
worked off in due time, but it’s important to know the DOW30 is about 20 index
points higher than normal from that one night.

PRECIOUS METALS



Some slight upticks, but gold is still very unstable in New York with ranges all
over the place. It still has a very big problem with slippage on fills.

FX [GBPUSD & GBP CROSSES]



FX volatility at all time record lows, and Cable’s 20 Day Range MA falls below 100
for the week.

It’s a heavy dose of earnings for the DOW30 this week, and of course we got the
coronavirus in China & throughout the world to deal with … it looks to be a
volatile week … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! 

Have a great rest of your weekend everybody!

-vegas













Friday, January 24, 2020

KNOW WHAT IT IS YOU’RE DOING … THEN DO IT!

“This kid has the “potential” to be a very successful future trader!”

From about 3 nanoseconds after my mentor Bert explained futures trading,
leverage, showed me an M5 bar chart in Lumber, Corn, & Cotton, and I did some
quick mental math, I knew my future would eventually take me to the exchange
floor … and why would you want to be there? … EASY PEEZEE Skippy, cuz the
costs to trade were the cheapest anywhere by a country mile, and with the way
markets moved, only an idiot standing on the floor didn’t or couldn’t make
“bigly & yuge” money.

Which brings me right back to PRIMEXBT … I keep hammering on this cuz it
MATTERS, without most of you realizing just how much these scumbag bank
LP’s will steal from you over the years … if you’re in your 20’s - 40’s, and you
plan on making trading a career for a good many years down the road, if you’re
not careful you’ll give away HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS … as
things stand now, PRIMEXBT has round turn [RT] commissions in ALL OF FX
[plus gold & silver], that equal $2 per 100,000 notional of whatever it is you’re
trading … which comes out to 0.002% of whatever your volume is … in other
words, it’s meaningless and won’t be the deciding factor if you make or lose
money trading.

By comparison, trading crypto like Bitcoin [BTC], the costs there ARE 50X
TIMES HIGHER! … yea, no typo here, they’re 50 times higher … do you get 50
times the volatility? … “umm well, no you don’t, not even close … so unless
crypto is flying, why endure the high cost, cuz you’re just handing money away
for free”! … I’ve said this before, but let me say it again … “I can trade from the
comfort of my couch, and in my gym shorts down here in the balmy Caribbean,
CHEAPER than I could from the exchange floor in Murder, Illinois, where it cost
me HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS for a membership, and I had to
travel everyday into that shithole through rain, snow, or shine … and now it’s all
free, over the internet with a brokerage house that has NO KYC, I’m totally
anonymous to the world, and everything I earn is held in BTC, the world’s most
valuable currency? … “I guarantee you, if I was told this years ago, I would have
bet heavily this could never happen and be impossible … and yet, here it is”!

And not only that, but depending on what your risk profile is, nobody but nobody
has LOWER MARGINS than PRIMEXBT … currently, if you’re trading FX, from
0 - 300,000 notional the margin is 0.1% … right, 1000X … I’m not saying use that
kind of leverage, all I’m saying is that whatever it is you decide to trade in terms
of volumes, they give you all the rope you need or want to hang yourself.

The criteria I’m most pleased about, though, along with bid/offer spread quotes
based on volume, and almost ZERO SLIPPAGE, is execution time on market
orders … doing some checking, my orders have been executed right around 7.5
milliseconds from time of entry to receiving my fill … contrast that with Turnkey,
where it’s 1 ½ SECONDS IF I’M LUCKY, and it’s 3 - 5+ SECONDS if the LP feels
greedy … and if you’re LONG a position and the market spikes higher quickly,
those milliseconds and seconds make a “bigly & yuge” difference in your fill
… add that shit up over the years and tell me it doesn’t matter? … me thinks it
does!

So whether you trade Cable, any of the FX majors, any of the crosses, or gold &
silver, you’re not gonna find a better place to save money, put it right back into
your pocket, and your profitable trades are immediately converted into BTC and
held in your trading wallet … so, if you like giving money away for nothing, stay
where you’re at and pay the Piper … it’s analogous to driving down the road in
your car with the window open and throwing out $20 bills … do you do that?
… NO? … well, if you’re trading somewhere else, THAT’S WHAT YOU’RE
DOING!

And while I have “poo poohed” trading silver for a long while, I’m giving it a
serious “second look” right now and doing some solid research on this market
at PRIMEXBT, for the very simple reasons of 1) good daily ranges, and this week
has a 20 Day Range MA of 33.7 cents per OZ., 2) if you look at the “VIX MATRIX
TABLE” from Sunday’s blog update, it has by far the lowest cost to trade of
anything on the board, and 3) it has a very tight bid/offer spread … here in the
next few weeks, nothing definite yet, I’ll probably publish a “Traders Course”
specifically for silver … we’ll see, but it shows promise cuz PRIMEXBT has the
proper trading conditions for it to be consistently profitable … gold, I’m not so
sure, cuz the scumbags that run that market are different from the likes of JPM
which runs silver.

And when you have the place to trade, and you’re getting the very best the world
has to offer, which as I said puts money into your pocket each and every day, you
need a plan … well, that’s covered as well, cuz when you open an account at
PRIMEXBT through my affiliate link in the Header, and then fund it with anything
you want, you get all the course material for FREE … everybody wins here
… thirdly, though, you’re now at the point where the kid in the pic is you … and
I’m gonna share with you a piece of information you NEED TO TAKE TO HEART
… here it is … when you trade, you can’t give a shit whether you win or lose!
… sure, we all love money … you can’t think about it when you trade, you have to
simply think about the trade … if you think about the money, your mind drifts into
what your profit can be used for, and what bill it can pay, etc., and you’ll end up
taking yourself out of trades prematurely, or even worse, not making them cuz
you’re scared of losing money … like the kid in the pic … “you know what?
… screw it! … I’m not here to skateboard down Grandma’s driveway … I know
what to do, all I got to do is do it”! … “well Skippy, get to that mindset, and watch
your trading account grow by leaps and bounds”. Too bad they don’t have a
DOW30 CFD … maybe someday?

“Flu, what flu? … kills millions maybe and throws the world into depression?
… who cares? … my theory is simple; bullish for stocks cuz if we all die the FED
has to cut rates! … sure, why not, as logical & plausible as paying $500+ per
share for a worthless piece of shit stock like Tesla, which in a sane world be
would be priced around $0.13” … Sven Henrich [Northman Trader] sums it up
best over on ZH today via the link directly below … I can’t say it any better.


No sense in being redundant as to how fucking insane stock indices are
… simply that when it’s over the FED Twits will point the finger everywhere but
at themselves for the bubble they’ve created and the destruction that is
inevitable … but, tell me something I don’t already know … “Wall Street, the
“Sodom & Gomorrah” of finance … and hopefully, you know how that ended”!

NYSE opens, and this is a total clusterfark … seriously, you can’t call this a
“market”, cuz there isn’t one … “can you stop manipulating for just one fucking
minute”?! … this is not gonna end well … simply a horror “shitshow circus”
… I hope you’re proud of the conditions you have wrought, you clueless fucks at
the FED!

Well now, “that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it?” … and given the
nosebleed section of the stadium stocks are perched at, the double top ramp
earlier today on panic buys before the open that saw a new recorder-er-er-er all
time high in the SP500, and now more coronavirus cases not only in China but
worldwide including the U.S.. more trouble at “tulip bulb 30” stalwart Boeing,
bankruptcy trouble in the oil patch, every economic indicator known to man
headed south, and China basically “shut down” via quarantine over their
biggest Holiday spending season of the year, PLUS we’re now into the P.M. in
Gotham where the criminal banks play and tulip bulbs are hitting new lows, and
you have the makings for one helluva disaster come the close of trading today
… and if it gets worse over the weekend, won’t Sunday night into the A.M. of
Monday be one great big Bingo!. Bango!, Boom!, as that explosion you’ll hear
will be “pin meet bubble”! … and it looks very much to me like the back “6” of
the “88/6/6” trading paradigm is set to hit town.

Not to worry, though, cuz I’ll remind you the absolute best rallies in the indices
come in down markets … forget the stair step up shit …. It’s rip your head off
and shit down your neck time for shorts, and of course the frolicking fun of the
“Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] when they sense blood in the water … quite
frankly, it’s not the up moves you have to worry about, it’s when those up moves
roll over and then start heading down, and a whole other group suddenly gets
the same thought at the same time … “oh shit, I’m long … WTF do I do now”?,
and the fun starts all over again.

Perhaps the biggest problem for stocks, if the coronavirus is as serious as some
are saying, and could be the next “blue flu” pandemic since 1918 that killed tens
of millions of people, is that an entire generation of investors are LONG at the
tippy top of a huge FED induced bubble, and once they understand and
comprehend the enormity of the problem and losses in the ‘ol portfolio start to
go past - 3% or -4%, panic sets in and SHTF as wave after wave of selling hits the
market from redemptions … wanna see a real market panic bigger & greater
than ‘87? ... just wait, cuz thanks to the Pinheads at the FED, this is gonna hurt a
lot of people … “quite frankly, it’s why I’ve always been a trader, and not an
investor”.

Here in late morning NY, and the indices look & feel very, very “toppy” … hell, the
DOW30 could go down 3,000 points, and it would still be in a weekly uptrend!
… but, as I have said for years, do NOT underestimate the resolve of the PPT to
keep the stocks story alive at all costs … remember, they don’t care if they lose
money buying stocks … do you? … well hell yes you do, and that’s the
difference … the PPT has been at work for the last 32 years, inflicting pain on
traders as often as they can cuz they literally HATE ALL SPECS … they don’t like
us riding their back, and they sure as hell don’t like short sellers.

Mid morning today, the FX CHOICE PAMM / MAM got a whole bunch of deposits
from fund participants … I had literally just gotten out of a trade when I noticed
the balance in the pooled master account had changed … those of you that
deposited today, your first allocated trades will be on Monday … welcome
aboard! … [“now, let’s go find your shipload of money, shall we”?]

Not the best day to be buying, but the algorithm in the DOW30 had a couple of
good buy signals … FX CHOICE PAMM / MAM UP SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 0.6%
… THE TURNKEY PAMM / MAM UP SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 0.2%.

First day in a very long time, where I’ve seen downside action truly vicious … if
you’re LONG and you wait for the turn lower off a spike rally to liquidate, you’re
toast … the scumbag LP’s [and FX CHOICE has pretty decent ones, so I’m not
complaining] will simply disappear the bid and your fill gets charbroiled … the
“Traders Course” [TC] & “Traders Course II [TCII] shows you how to do that
effectively and for MAX PROFIT … [isn’t that why we’re all here … profit?]

The PPT could actually do themselves a favor here and back away from trying to
“manage” this decline … if they rally it into the close, it will be the worst thing
they can do … but since when do these Twits ever get it right? … new low as I
write in the afternoon of a Friday … given the “story” nature of the decline, and
the possibility for a true pandemic, and most importantly the assholes at the FED
have built the bubble and it’s so stretched, the ramifications on the downside are
heightened today and off the charts … going into a weekend where nobody
knows WTF is gonna happen will only intensify the selling if HR1 & HR4 support
areas get breached … the PPT doesn’t sop up selling, and if there’s no let up in
the downside pressure they will back away and come back Monday … in other
words, situational awareness is key here in the P.M., and while I’m not a seller
cuz of the paradigm we operate in, it looks very much to me like the back “6” is
parked out front and waiting to be “unleashed” … and if that is indeed the case,
which is something I have been warning about in spades these last weeks, from
these levels on the DOW30, catching a falling chainsaw from 40,000 feet could
get a little ugly on your arms & hands as we move into the close.

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas