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Wednesday, April 25, 2018

CHEAP TUITION

“Sometimes, they all come out at once!”

Real moments and ‘reality checks” are important in trading … yesterday was 
one such moment. And quite frankly, even if the scumbag LP banks hadn’t 
ripped EVERY ORDER, but kept it to maybe half the orders, I still would 
have come to the same “come to Jesus” moment with respect to some of these 
markets. What’s changed over the last couple of years more than anything, is 
that the scumbag LP dealer banks, who we are forced to do biz with and have 
no other options, are more brazen, overt, and quick to misprice practically 
every market they got their sticky fingers in, and that’s all of them … and 
nowhere is this more apparent than in stock indices, precious metals, and FX 
crosses. “Cuz if you can sit there, with a straight face and lie to me, and tell me 
that the liquidation sell fill off the market by 7 full PIPS in a rising market, OR 
the 3.9 PIP rip on a buy liquidation, when GBPJPY is on the frickin’ low 
[literally], is “fair & accurate pricing”, then I think you have a career ahead of 
you in politics”. [Choose Libtard Nation, cuz facts just get in the way of the 
official Progressive narrative, and you’ll be right at home.]

And if you’re an experienced trader, you quickly realize the only way to trade 
is the U.S. Dollar pairs … everything else is a complete “illusion” they would 
love you to believe, and the HAL9000 computer system they all use is as dirty 
as they come … the only thing keeping the dollar pairs honest, is all the 
competition from other banks around the world, and if they stray too far off 
the reservation, people & regulators start to notice …”how do you think they 
caught FXCM sandbagging orders, and as a result, kicked them out of the biz”?

The “market tuition” we pay, is that first realization we got “hosed”, but the 
information gained to avoid it in the future far outweighs the money lost if it’s 
small in scope … cuz the dirty little secret is, no matter how many “pony rides” 
you get, every time you click the buy or sell button , they’re gonna take a chunk 
of your hide for themselves … EVERY SINGLE DAMN TIME … heads they 
win, tails you lose. It isn’t about the money, it’s about the business model. “Well 
screw that … I’m not here to donate, I’m here to withdraw … that’s my biz model, 
and when you “stack things” against me, so far out of whack with mystery ticks, 
stop hunts, & slippage, that you need two pony rides a day just to break even, it’s 
time to bid you adios, cuz trading through Vito Corleone, Inc. would be cheaper”.

Turning to today’s GBPUSD market … seriously, this is what you’re handing 
me today? … a multi trip excursion to the high and low, via the “Flying Wedge 
of Death” [FWD], that sees a slightly higher than 35 PIP range over 10 hours? 
… where there is zero order flow, no volume, and even less liquidity. How 
many times today have I seen 4 - 7 PIP spikes, both up & down … “well, way 
too damn many”! Fortunately, I haven’t been the recipient of any of them. 
Tonight sees the BOJ meet on interest rates, and tomorrow morning sees the 
ECB go at it with Super Mario … the next Cable interest rate meeting is 
Thursday, May 10th. Granted, both are holding FX action back, but this is the 
worst day I’ve seen in Cable, action wise, in a very long time … most of the last 
10 hours has seen less than 25 PIPS, with nothing but gaps and stops getting 
clicked off. Everybody holding their collective breath to see what stocks do, and 
whether or not they “Thelma & Louise” this afternoon; so far a rather subdued 
day in the DOW30 & SPP500 … stocks getting “monkey hammered” affects 
Treasury yields, and Treasury yields affect FX … and with every retarded 
kitten in the world watching and reacting to the 3% “Maginot Line” in the 
Treasury 10 YR., it’s a self fulfilling prophecy of “monkey see, monkey do”.

A shipload of trades today … PAMM down slightly, a little over $100.

We are in a new paradigm for trading … gone are the days of making 
minuscule profits, and then getting clipped for $300 - $400 bucks on a bad day. 
Volumes here in Cable are in the 200,000 - 500,000 notional range, and 
generally speaking, the larger the volume, the greater the likelihood of  
“position scaling” on my part, which means winning positions … bottom line: 
the flipping around of the trading model for the PAMM … there are no “bad 
days”, only days like today where there isn’t any action whatsoever and the 
market doesn’t move for the entire day; on days like these, trading is going to 
be very tough. It doesn’t necessarily mean losing trades, but the probability of 
loss is much greater, and again generally it means losses should be very small 
relative to what volumes are being traded. On the other side of the coin, most 
normal trading days should see good profits, and when I say “good profit”,
generally mean over $500 - $1,000+ on the plus side. So, people need to keep 
things in perspective going forward, cuz I’m not gonna be able to make 
everybody a millionaire this millennia at $1.98 per day. Tomorrow’s blog 
post, I’ll cover this in much more detail.

And, it’s official … 12 hours of the dullest trading I think I’ve ever witnessed in 
GBPUSD, which outside of a few M1’s where the market went to its extremes 
for the day before snapping back quickly, basically it was 1.3950-ish on the high 
side, and 1.39250 - 1.3930-ish on the low side … a wonderful 20 - 25 PIP range 
that saw more than its fair share of spikes in the 4 - 7 PIP range in a 
millisecond. And if your trading model depends on days like this to make 
money, good luck with that. Fills today good, only one trade saw anything 
more than a tenth of a PIP off the bid/offer, and it wasn’t significantly worse 
than that … so, can’t complain at all in the pricing arena today.

Tonight sees the BOJ meet, and Kuroda will more than likely open the QE 
floodgates once again … I haven’t a clue how FX reacts to this, given his 
dismal track record over the years getting USDJPY higher. ECB comes out 
with their interest rate agenda tomorrow morning at 08:00 EST, and Super 
Mario will talk out of both sides of his mouth and try to please bulls & bears 
and keep EURUSD from rallying … we’ll see how this goes. Tomorrow night 
sees U.K. consumer confidence at 7:01 P.M. EST, right before the Asian open, 
and given the nefarious bullshit in the past that has happened in Cable during 
this time slot, you couldn’t pay me to have a position going into this … Cable 
could react and do anything. And then on Friday, first up is U.K. GDP, and 
then at 10:00 A.M. EST, Carney from the BOE is due to give a speech … oh, 
won’t this be a hoot going into the weekend … expect volatility fireworks on 
Friday mi amigos.

Cable action today remained firmly on the bearish side … any and every short 
covering bounce was solidly met with capital flow & corporate account selling 
by big monied interests … it feels like it wants to go much lower, maybe down 
into the 1.37’s, and my guess is Carney on Friday, along with dismal GDP 
numbers, will be the catalyst to do it … we’ll see, and anything can change in a 
heartbeat, but for the umpteenth million time over the years, Cable gets way 
ahead of the reality of the U.K. economy, and therefore higher interest rates, 
and then gets disappointed “bigly & yuuge”. It could be different this time, but 
why?

Cable is the most volatile of the U.S. Dollar pairs, and I’m drawing the 
“red line” in the sand; I’m staying here, “come hell or high water”, and I’m not 
going to be switching markets again anytime soon … this pair has all we need, 
and the algorithm specifically designed for it [with minor modifications] many 
years ago when it was known on the trading floor as, “The Widow Maker”, is 
still as good as it ever was. Cousin It & Chief of Staff Milton Waddums have 
run all the numbers from the last nine months in GBPUSD, from last August 1, 
2017 up until yesterday, and I got drool all over my chin. This upcoming 
weekend, I’ll publish the GBPUSD algorithm, that was specifically designed for 
it [with very minor modifications] and no other market, along with pertinent 
data. So, fasten your seatbelt and hang in there, cuz this is gonna be fun.

The only thing I’m disappointed in from today’s trading is the action in the 
marketplace … give me 100 days like this over the next 20 years, and I’ll make 
the exact same trades every time … simply cuz I have to if we’re gonna catch 
the “pony rides” the market offers in abundance. So, trade fills were good, 
market action sucked, & I made the trades I had to … it is what it is, and it’s 
the price we pay for nice paydays, so no need to be disappointed cuz I can’t 
make the market move.

Last night I went to update the PAMM, using my spreadsheet program  
“Google Sheets” [online and free], and I can’t get any of my spreadsheets to 
open … contacted Google support, and I got a live chat, here in about an hour, 
with one of their tech support people to get it figured out … so, spreadsheet 
will be updated and posted when the “techies” get the problem solved. Until 
tomorrow mi amigos … I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

  






 



 

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

WHO HIJACKED THE PONIES?

“Sorry, it ain’t the same feeling!”

Somebody has hijacked the ponies … I went to the ticket booth and bought my 
ticket, and when I got in, there was this line, but no ponies … where the hell are 
they? Outside of last Thursday’s very late afternoon [after our close] hiccup 
from the BOE’s Carney about maybe interest rates aren’t gonna rise after all at 
the May BOE meeting, thus creating another Charlie Brown moment when 
Lucy removes the football and panic sets in all around to the downside, there 
hasn’t been a whiff, scent, a peek, or hint of a “pony ride” anywhere on the 
horizon … it’s been nothing but endless “chop” and stop hunts.

Yesterday saw a complete short capitulation in USDJPY, where it was a 
complete "shitshow" stop hunt on the upside … today, this market can’t even 
put in a range of 23 PIPS after almost half the day is over, which tells you 
everything you need to know about the state of the trade … there’s nothing 
here but stops, ready to be brutalized by the scumbag LP banks, which of 
course we already knew. Ditto for GBPUSD, where there literally is no trading, 
simply a “lurch” from one price point to another, USUALLY only a PIP, but 
sometimes 1+ PIPS as somebody discovers the wonders of slippage from the 
HAL9000 [“Dave … Dave ...  we don’t have a problem do we Dave? … I can 
assure you all systems are running in perfect order and your fill is right on the 
market”.]

Which of course, creates a completely dysfunctional market in GBPJPY, where 
this kind of market behavior feeds on itself and traders leave the arena for 
psychological help at the bar next door to the office … throw in slippage, and if 
I had a nickel for every phrase today from traders around the world of, “WTF 
kind of fill was that?!!”, I’d be on the phone ordering my new yacht.

Pony ride? All we’ve seen so far is pony doodoo, remnants of ponies from a 
galaxy far, far away … right now penny stocks are looking good compared to 
this stuff. I’m telling you, this is a cruel “F-ing” joke. Overnight, I was looking 
at hedge fund results since the start of the year, and just like last year, record 
numbers of funds are “throwing in the towel” and closing their doors … we’re 
in a new paradigm, where nothing moves until it does, and when it does, it goes 
so fast and hard it literally takes your breath away … then stops ‘till next time. 
And this first quarter [Q1 2018] has been brutal [I’m being kind] for FX & 
commodity funds, where performance overall is the worst in over 30 years 
… you have to go back to the crash of ‘87, and its aftermath, to see worse 
results. USDJPY is the perfect “poster boy” for a crowded trade, and the blood 
flowing from yesterday hasn’t even been counted yet … add this to the mix, and 
it spells lower volumes, lower liquidity, and more bullshit from the scumbag LP 
banks … cuz one way or another they’re gonna make their money, and take it 
any way they can get it. My point in all this is simple: “stay focused, show 
patience & discipline, and don’t let the market force you into “stupid shit”, like 
upping leverage to make up for smaller ranges for example”.

Turning to today’s GBPJPY market … good grief, what a pile of hog slop this 
is … nothing here driving this market early but GBPUSD buy stops on the 
upside, after 5 straight days of “monkey hammering” … it comes “out of the 
blue” and ends as quick as it starts, cuz there ain’t anybody laying in longs 
down here in size.

A shipload of trades today … no way to sugarcoat this folks, PAMM down 
about $350 or 0.6%, thank you very much scumbag LP’s, where slippage has 
gotten totally out of control here … profitable trades down the drain, as fills on 
trades just get creamed … and I do mean “clubbed”.

Seriously, I am beside myself with rage at these scumbag assholes who call 
themselves “liquidity providers” … they are fucking thieves. One trade today, I 
go to sell [liquidate] at 31, and get filled at 24; another trade I go to buy at 45 
get filled at 48 … 2 minutes later I go to sell [liquidate] at 43 and get filled at 
40.4 … all told, my guess is about $350 - $500 in slippage … totally bogus 
mystery tick fills that are bullshit; all buys on THE FUCKING TOP OF THE 
TICK CHART … ALL SELLS ON THE BOTTOM OF THE TICK CHART 
… EVERY FUCKING ONE OF THEM, no matter what the market does. Of 
course I’ve complained to Turnkey … what’s the point? … absolute scumbags 
top to bottom.

Sorry folks, but I’m really pissed, and these assholes want me to trade bigger 
volumes? … rrrrriiiiiggggghhhhhtttttt dirt bags, go piss up a rope. And the last 
trade I made, I’m short, and when the price is on its LOW TICK at 151.790, I 
click “liquidate”, and get fucking filled at 151.831 … “wait … WUT”? 
… YOU’RE “HOOVER DAM” RIGHT WUT!… how do you make sense of 
this bullshit? WTF can I do, I’m clicking liquidate when it’s on its fucking 
LOW! And they fill me 3.9 PIPS off the offer on a fucking 1 ½ lot? “Oh sure 
Turnkey, sign me up for 10 & 20 lots … what’s the worst that can happen on 2 
million stuff, when your fucking scumbag LP’s clean my clock on a 1 ½ lot for 
almost 4 fucking PIPS, AS WELL as the shit fills all day long including the one 
you clipped us for 7 PIPS”?

This is totally unacceptable folks, and I don’t care what kind of “pony rides” 
they might have; it doesn’t matter when you get robbed on every damn fill! 
… and I mean TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! … and what pisses me off to no 
end, is that I’m not doing “stupid shit” here … I’m trading like I’m supposed 
to, and they’re taking me out back behind the barn and before shooting me in 
the head, I get the luxury of unsolicited LP bank sex, bent over the back fence 
nice and neat . Granted, the money isn’t huge … still only a few hundred bucks 
and a fraction of 1% of equity … but before I go higher volumes, I got to know 
how the rules are being played … And from what I’m seeing day after day, first 
in the stock indices, and now in the more volatile FX crosses like GBPJPY here 
this last week, it’s pretty fucking obvious you can’t scalp these markets cuz the 
damn banks aren’t going to let you, and they don’t give a shit what the 
bid/offer looks like on your screen … “fuck that … we’re gonna fill you where 
we want to and there isn’t a damn thing you can do about it”! Sure there is 
… I don’t need to trade you!

And after thinking about it for a few minutes after that last unbelievable shit 
fill, what I’m going to do is go back to trading GBPUSD; it’s settled down to 
the point where it’s tradeable, and it’s more volatile with better ranges than 
EURUSD. I’ll be using the “zone charting” techniques I discussed, and I’ll keep 
the same times, which is about 06:00 - 18:00, and if it’s interesting after 18:00, 
maybe a little longer. I’ll keep the GBPJPY M30 history, and continue to update 
it every month, and this weekend, I’ll do the same M30 for GBPUSD, from the 
start of 2018.

I’m the kind of guy, that doesn’t take getting “cheated” kindly, and if the 
asshole scumbag LP’s aren’t going to make honest markets in the stock indices 
and/or the FX crosses, I’m not gonna just sit around and take it … we’ll move 
to another market … that’s the whole purpose & premise behind “The 
Magnificent Seven” to begin with; we’ll trade where we get treated fairly, and 
where there is the necessary volatility, but I’m not going to let these assholes 
screw us with slippage that would make Vito Corleone blush if he were alive 
today. “And yea HAL9000, I got a real fucking problem with you”!!

So, it’s back to GBPUSD, and quite frankly, it’s gonna take a miracle to get 
me away from this market again … I think I’ve proven that the only 2 viable 
markets to trade and possibly scalp are GBPUSD & EURUSD … the rest have 
bogus, fake bid / offer screens, and the slippage is unfucking believable, even 
when there isn’t anything going on in the market … not that you can’t get it in 
these 2 pairs, but it’s manageable outside of market moving news. “I’m pretty 
damn sure if I was buying Cable to liquidate, that I’m not gonna get clipped for 7 
PIPS the first time, and 3.9 PIPS the second time, and that’s my point … screw 
these guys in everything else”.

And yes, I’m pissed, but like I said, the money is small and will be recovered. 
You “live & learn” with these assclowns, and like I told Turnkey management,  
“I don’t want to ever here about tight spreads with tier 1 liquidity providers 
… your LP’s in stock indices & FX crosses are THIEVES, and should be in jail 
… they suck, and quite frankly, you telling me “everything is F-ing AWESOME 
baby!, is utter bullshit. And to put an exclamation on that, your credibility is shot 
to hell as well, cuz you were the clowns that told me they were good LP’s … yea, 
that’s a fucking joke and you know it, so from now on, keep your opinions to 
yourself cuz I’m not interested. Your dollar pairs are OK, cuz they know they 
can’t fuck with those and stay competitive with the rest of the FX universe… well, 
guess where we’re gonna be from now on dirt bags”?

So, it is what it is, and I’ve “learned” enough so that my backside is sore and I 
can hardly sit down or walk straight … we’ll get on the profit path tomorrow 
and move forward, and Thursday sees U.K. GDP numbers early [4:30 A.M. 
EST] … the only positive thing you can take away from bullshit like this today, 
is to learn and not repeat what happened today, and to put it behind you, cuz 
there isn’t anything that is gonna change the outcome one damn bit. “So, on to 
GBPUSD, and the LP banks in GBPJPY can kiss my ass goodbye, and don’t let 
the door hit you in the face on your way out … I’m not leaving angry, just leaving 
…. I hope you starve to death”! And on that cheery note, I’m outta here for a  
“cold one” … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

I’ll have the PAMM spreadsheet updated sometime tonight, and post it here.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!