WHICH MAJOR FIAT GOES TO ZERO FIRST?

 

“It’s only comical if you’re not in it!!”

Gold, and to some extent Bitcoin, are pretty much telling the world that people

have “Zip, Zero, Zilch, & Nada” [what a good name for a law firm] confidence in

fiat paper … since the 2008 financial crisis, it’s been a race to zero for central

banks, based on the idiotic belief that a weak currency helps exports … if that

were true, Zimbabwe would lead the world!

And I got news for the POLS & Apparatchiks at the FED and other central banks

… people are not gonna accept or use your Authoritarian, police state,

government spying app digital currency … go ahead, outlaw Bitcoin and see

what happens next … then outlaw gold [again], and see how many Sheeple line

up to turn it in to government … it’s gonna be a long wait!

And since they all are massively involved in “QE Infinity”, where the CNTRL-P

machine goes “Brrrrrrr” 24/7/365, the $64,000 question becomes, “which one of

these go tapioca first, and when?” … do any of ‘em survive when the Ruskies &

Chicoms make the Ruble & Yuan, respectively, gold backed currencies? … cuz

that is gonna happen, and when capital flows to those, along with Bitcoin, who

the Frick wants fiat backed by nothing? … fiat is a “PONZI SCHEME” and always

has been … it allows governments to rob their citizens of wealth via inflation and

money printing that debases its future purchasing value …can’t do that with a

gold backed currency, nor can you do it with Bitcoin … and it’s the reason POLS

& Apparatchiks hate both with a burning passion, and spend 24/7/365 attacking

both … they can’t be cheated! … everything else government dreams up can be

cheated … imagine if government allowed the money taken from you every

paycheck and dumped into Social Security could be put into Bitcoin and/or gold

… not used immediately for slush fund payments to places like Ukraine, but put

away for YOUR BENEFIT! … nope, can’t do that cuz it would rob the government

of money NOW, for fiat it’s gonna cheapen & debase over your lifetime and then

pay back to you at a fraction of the value when you were forced to give it to them

… it’s a classic inflation PONZI SCHEME! … and they sit there with a straight face

and tell you that inflation at 2% IS GOOD FOR YOU & THE COUNTRY

… BULLSHIT! … inflation is only good for government! … it’s pure poison for

people! … since the FED was created in 1913, the U.S. Dollar has LOST 98%+ OF

ITS PURCHASING POWER … money or wealth left to you by your grandparents

in a trust, or in some other way, if it’’s in financial assets like bank accounts or

bonds, you’ve gotten destroyed.

So which one goes first? … and to what extent do they change rules, use the force

of the police state, and otherwise harass and intimidate people to delay people

from exiting the system? … good questions … don’t know when, only it’s gonna

happen … and in the trading world there will be major ramifications of these

future developments … but for my money, the 3 most likely to go tapioca are EUR,

GBP and JPY … all 3 countries complete basket cases of ineptitude, negligence,

incompetence, corruption, and stupidity of the highest order when it comes to

international finance … one glance at their central bank Apparatchiks, and you

can’t stop laughing … which brings me full circle to GBPJPY & EURJPY as

trading vehicles.

As I’ve stated before, there is nothing on the board that doesn’t come without

major warts, pimples, scars, & blemishes … so, bottom line is 1) cost to trade and

the “Trading Ratio” [TR], and 2) the 20 Day Range MA of the pair to get a glimpse

of present volatility [VIX] … the first concentrates on intra day VIX, and the second

close-to-close VIX … directly below an interesting table of stats … check it out.

click on table to enlarge

Isn’t it interesting that over the last 3 years or so, that the 20 Day Range MA is

about HALF [that would be 50% for you Biden voters] the 20 WEEK Range MA

… which I find interesting as all get out, cuz I think it plainly shows each day is

its own bull / bear market, and thus it HAS TO TRADE … it doesn’t go straight like

USDJPY did when it went straight up for all of those weeks before the BOJ

intervened above 150 … it can of course in small spurts, but overall it trades, and

tends not to go straight … this is the essence of a tradeable market … a slightly

better and more consistent bid/offer spread in EURJPY, and for that you give up

a few range PIPS each day / week … does it really matter? … no, I don’t think it

does … granted, it’s six to one half dozen the other whether or not it goes

higher / lower than USDJPY, but you got more ways to see movement … from a

trading perspective, I think it makes more sense to trade the cross via the

EURUSD in the numerator, than GBPUSD … today sees me switch over to

EURJPY from USDJPY … I also think we’ll get better fills in the cross … just a

hunch, but we’ll see.

I came into today wondering how gold would react … whether we would see

another assault on 2K, or “Thelma & Louise” from the forces behind the “Rally

Protection Team” [RPT], which hates gold and will do everything in its power to

crush long specs … well, that didn’t take long to see which one prevailed

… meanwhile USDJPY had its move overnight, along with the crosses, and it

didn’t leave much for U.S. trading, which not incidentally, is on purpose cuz

tomorrow is Lounge Lizard day … I started to follow EURJPY around Noon EST,

and it hasn’t done much of anything since then as it awaits tomorrow’s

clusterfark at 2 PM EST … no trades today for the PAMM, the day over before it

began as 20 Day Range MA’s blown to shit again, and order books cleaned out

before the sun comes up.

Oh well, thanks central bankers … the trading algorithm models EURJPY better

than about any market on the board, although it’s a close call versus some of the

other YEN crosses … onto tomorrow … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I

need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!

… Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

SCREW THE BANKS … BACK TO A PHYZ MARKET

 

“Fossil Fools are everywhere !!”

Welp. Holiday markets are upon us once again … even crude oil moves more in

the late Asian session today than in New York … cue the broken record … “WTF,

do I have to move to frickin’ Thailand to get decent trading action, or what?” … but

it’s not just crude that’s dead, but everything else as well, although the Asian

session had some nice movement to the upside late in the day [of course it did!]

… now in New York, crude not even capable of having a “Trading Ratio” [TR]

above 3 … and I doubt the oil inventories report will change any of that, coming at

10:30 AM EST. … a big draw popped crude for a minute or two, but that got faded

quickly, and we’re back in the mud we’ve been in for hours in the mid to upper

77’s, with quick trips to 78 that can’t last … in other words, about a 50 cent range

of a nothingburger … just isn’t enough volume or interest to sustain either breaks

or rallies long enough to matter for price … up a little, down a little ain’t gonna get

it done in crude, simply cuz we got a higher spread wall to climb.

Now, none of this means crude can’t explode at any moment, cuz it can, so it

bares watching, just that for now it can’t get going anywhere … I’ve made this

mistake before with crude, giving up on it too early, only to come back later and

regret that decision … right now, here in the New York afternoon, it’s a “tickle me

Elmo” kind of situation … every time they break it, they walk it back higher inch

by inch … then it’s rinse and repeat, with the red spikes down a particular problem

in thin conditions … nobody can feel comfortable with any kind of position, as

most of the volume in the oil trade is absent … range for the last 5 -6 hours, now

about 75 cents, which is pathetic … TR of about 2.5 not conducive for a trade

… for now the 78 level has been breached to the upside, but the real question is

can it stay above that level going into the close?

We’ve hit the 2 PM EST time frame, and although crude is still adobe $78, this

attempted breakout is so dubious and done on such low volume and interest in

trading in general, I’m not at all confident it means anything … crude isn’t a

market you hang around in for hours so it can go up 20 dents or so … too many

bad things can happen to you for such skimpy returns … I imagine cuz the

“Stock Bellies” are higher today, it might have something to do with crude being

higher … on the other hand FX is a drag as the dollar is generally slightly higher

… in any event, nobody seemed to give a shit about oil today except in the last

hour or two in the Asian session [also pre Europe as well] … take that away,

and we wouldn’t even have a $1 range … go figure.

Basically, we start crude oil trading with Coinexx, which in the past when I traded

there wasn’t too bad … Turnkey is another story altogether, as those idiots could

never seem to get LP’s that could do the job … as readers remember, right before

the merger, I had an oil trade at Turnkey that was atrocious … I don’t ever

remember getting ripped like that at Coinexx when I traded there a few years ago

in oil, so we’ll see … their oil spreads are about the industry norms, and outside

of normal spikes on support / resistance breaks, news items, and general bullshit

from the likes of Vlad & crew and OPEC+ thugs, I don’t see anything out of the

ordinary when it comes to the flow of trading … I sure as Hell hope I’m right, cuz

oil is one of the great markets left that is outside of the FED’s CNTRL-P machine,

and all of the QE bullshit that goes on with the FED and scumbag banks … oil

moves, and moves well … algorithm signals, both buy & sell are excellent when it

moves, but like any market, when things go tapioca and slow down to a crawl,

trading oil gets extremely treacherous … in other words, when the TR goes South,

leave it alone.

It’s easy to look back in retrospect … I should have never left oil to begin with once

I became interested in it from a trading perspective … but then again there was

Turnkey and all the bullshit there, so it is what it was … but now? …  nope cuz I’m

in it to win it!… most of the year in oil has been fantastic, and of course when Vlad

invaded Ukraine it went bat shit crazy [BSC] … well, we all live and learn, even old

dogs like me … looking forward to 2023, I can’t see any other market outperforming

oil on a trading basis, and if China comes back online from the COVID hoax

lockdowns, oil will explode higher as Pacific Rim economies will gear up once

again and demand for oil will move sharply higher … all in all it should be an

interesting and very profitable year … no trades today for the PAMM due to very

lackluster trading conditions … one of the poorest days I’ve seen in oil in a long

while, but again it’s a Holiday week, so not entirely unexpected … onto tomorrow,

and we'll see if conditions can improve some for some oil trades via algorithm

signals.

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!! 

-vegas

A GOOD DAY FOR OIL TO DIE [SO FAR]

“Trade crude oil & Natty Gas! … discover religion!!”

There will be blood, and rest assured every drop will be from specs … today seeing

so far a very choppy, uninspired trade in crude oil with a dog poo range … trading

conditions at Turnkey OK so far, but that doesn’t mean much when oil sits and

basically does nothing … corn spreads are moving faster this morning than oil.

Day over, and not surprisingly a “hurry up & wait” day [tomorrow worse?] for

most markets going into Wednesday’s FED clusterfark … how much oil reacts to

the FED remains to be seen, but with nothing else really moving, oil took the bait

and decided to sit this one out … and while the New York session [7 AM EST -

3 PM EST] 20 Day range MA in Natty Gas is 35.4 cents this week, today comes

right in on schedule at around 30 cents … both Natty Gas & Crude Oil, the ONLY

markets worth a shit when it comes to 1) CONSISTENT VIX, 2) heavy volume &

liquidity in the physical commodity space, and absence of the FED Lounge Lizards

and their QE CNTRL-P machine that manipulates cash settled markets with

ruthless abandon, and most importantly 4) “purer” charts with regard the trading

algorithm, that makes signals eye watering … nothing else has these 4 key

critical components … nothing … not traditional FX, not “Stock Bellies”, and

certainly not gold & silver.

Over the last month during off hours, including the time spent in the hospital, I

have spent a tremendous amount of time analyzing Natty Gas … how it trades, its

“fingerprint”, and how the crude oil trading algorithm relates to this market … and

it’s even better in Natty Gas than crude oil … to be sure, Natty Gas has its

moments of pure bat shit crazy [BSC], especially via weather … no market shows

any of us any favors … but what Natty Gas has that others don’t is “purity” of the

m1 charts, meaning they trend a whole lot more than they chop … enough of a

short term trend so that the algorithm’s scalps and/or day trades are

predominantly profitable to a high probability event … with good futures

volume & liquidity, slippage is minimal most of the time … sell the big red spike

down or buy the big green spike up, and it’s a different story … directly below,

the CME’s Natty Gas Volume & Open Interest table … and below that, the link

to the page.

click on histogram to enlarge

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.volume.html

I simply don’t know of 2 markets that give us more bang for the buck than oil &

Natty Gas, despite today’s shit range in oil [ughhhh! … about $2 in the New York

session, where the New York session 20 Day Range MA is about $2.78 … about

30% off] … Natty Gas, though, put in signals to drool over, and this market does

this just about every single day … I’m rearranging my priorities some, and

starting tonight / tomorrow my first market will be Natty Gas, and then crude oil

secondarily … only if these 2 markets are absolutely “dead in the water” [stick a

fork in him Jim!] will I look to the DOW30 … everything else can “pound sand”, as

they are simply NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH IN TERMS OF VIX to be meaningful

for profitability … sorry, but it’s true … a while back I noticed Natty Gas, but

sidestepped it in favor of crude oil … no more … quite frankly, it’s the single best

market traded on the MT4 and/or MT5 HANDS DOWN … this upcoming Sunday

blog update, I’ll be releasing the PDF manual for the updated trading algorithm

… simple … powerful … easy to comprehend and follow … and it won’t be long

in the tooth … most likely it’ll be under 15 pages, so you can get up and going in

a few minutes … the more volatile the market, the better the profitability from

algorithm signal opportunities.

One more thing … Natty Gas can be traded both long and short via the algorithm

… there is no bias to the algorithm, so both are in play … I’d be careful about

being short crude oil, but Natty Gas is a weather market, so have at it … no

trades today for the PAMM … tomorrow starts a new chapter in a new month

with energy being my focus … I don’t like saying it, but other markets are simply

dog poo … and while I’m somewhat pissed at myself cuz it took this long for me

to make the switch to these 2 markets, we’re here now and it’s time to move

forward and book coin … shiploads of cash are waiting for us, and it’s time to

sail and go get them! … onto tomorrow & screw the FED Lounge Lizards!

… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of  sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!

-vegas