HOW WAS THE BEAR MARKET?

“Ok, which one of you said the word bacon?”

I’m sittin’ here yesterday, trying to figure out where the hell the API crude oil inventory report is @ 10:30 … cuz earlier I know I saw that it was to be reported at that time … lately stocks have closely correlated with crude, and since we were close to critical support where the “Plunge Protection Team” [oil version natch] had come in before to buy oil futures and thus rally stocks, I didn’t want to get caught in something that takes crude down like a $1.50 in 2 seconds, only to see the Dow30 gap lower as well. And like I said yesterday, reporting in crude oil has always been a nightmare, as the industry changes the parameters for reporting [I think], just to piss me off.

And so, in order to 1) keep my cool, and 2) not literally go insane over the stupidity of the oil industry, I said it’s time to think “happy thoughts”… like puppies for instance … and there’s the dog almost immediately sitting right there in front of me … looking up … and basically saying to me, “you said ‘bacon’ didn’t you? I heard somebody say ‘bacon’ … was it you? … Ok, it doesn’t matter … I need “bacon” like right now, OK? … hey, are you listen’ to me”? “And I’m like … did somebody in the oil biz put you up to this”? And just like that, the bear market is over, stocks can erratically move higher, especially into the totally manipulated close, and the dog gets bacon; me? I get butkus.

And my point here isn’t what you think; for practically my entire adult life, which has been in trading [over more years than I care to count], this is what trading is all about … which is screwing up, accepting it, and simply moving on to the next trade or day. It’s easier said than done, cuz in trading there isn’t anything that’s done by “corporate committee” or other such nonsense; you don’t have time to “think” or explore options like you’re sitting in the faculty lounge all secure in your salary and tenure, while pontificating the various world events swirling around you. You got “now”, and a decision has to be made … having said that, most professional traders will straight up admit they are wrong most of the time … that it is dealing with failure that makes them rich and gives them their lifestyle.

However, there come times, when you feel like you are in “The Twilight Zone” cuz paradigms are changing faster than you would like to admit … nonetheless, they are changing, and ignoring or refusing to “see” what is happening versus what you’d like to see will only lead to results nobody is going to like. For over 20 years, not a damn thing changed in the trading world, and you would be very hard pressed to find anybody who has been around as long as I have say they “expected” the changes that have taken place in the last 15 years or so with the advent of electronic trading via the internet. And just when you think you got things figured out, along come more changes that baffle the hell out of you. Well, we’ve finally reached the endgame in this charade.

And this “endgame” is the manipulation of every market traded to some extent by the world’s largest central banks [FED, BOJ, ECB, BOE, & the SNB]. They are the cause and the reason for “Speed of Light Trading … Crickets”, and the world isn’t ever going back to the way it was before unless there is a total revolution in the Western Democracies with blood in the streets. Don’t look for it anytime soon.

Cuz when you look at markets through the prism of manipulation, the only ones that make any sense to trade are the stock indices … everything else [except maybe for crude oil] is a total “flip of a coin”, and to be blunt about it, that’s not good enough for me. I’ll be the very first one to admit, these last months stretching back to 2015 have not been particularly kind to me as a professional trader … that’s the bad news … the good news is twofold; 1) I ain’t been “whacked” Tony Soprano style by any market as the markets changed paradigms, and 2) I’ve adjusted my trading to the manipulation and profits are returning. It’s the reason the PAMM is strictly trading the U.S. stock indices; relatively speaking the manipulations are the easiest to read. All we need to really get going are larger ranges and somewhat higher intraday volatilities; at present they are at 50 year lows, so from my standpoint there isn’t anything but upside here in terms of activity.

Turning to today’s market … “well, did you like that manipulative close yesterday off of inside info on the oil inventory numbers coming 30 minutes later? Think that was a coincidence”? All that did was rob early buying today of firepower. Here in the pre-market [about an hour to the open], we start to see prices rally as traders see the institutional Chipmunks start to place bids for the open … knowing they go in during the first 5 minutes, they’ll see to it they pay top dollar for their stocks. And, 5 minutes after the open the market is right back to where it should have opened without the manipulation from 90 minutes ago. Such is life for the Chipmunks.

First trade of the day after the numbers shenanigans of ISM & ADP, what with straight up and then straight down, and then move up near the high. Not excited about the prospects here cuz the Dow30 is the weakest of the 3 indices, but I want to be long if the opening level breaks to the upside.

When it won’t go, it won’t go, and I bailed simply because the only way this goes higher is a blast by the SP500 through 2420 with conviction, and it doesn’t appear that is happening; when presented with anything above my entry point I liquidate, and just for the record the LP didn’t do us any favors with a little slippage thrown in cuz they can for no reason other than pure greed [I frickin’ hate LP’s] … it is what it is, I’m just sayin’ there was no need for the slippage as the market wasn’t headed down at the time I liquidated. But, it’s useless and counter-productive to bitch and moan to Turnkey about it cuz I know what their response is gonna be; better to save my “bitching ammo” for more opportune times in the future which I hope never come.

“OMG! Somebody call the trading police; the NDX100 is lower on the day … is this legal? Can the markets survive a lower NDX100 day? Something to keep an eye on as the day goes forward, cuz a break below 5762 is gonna set off a total “bat guano storm” of potential sell stops”. So far, unless the SP500 convincingly breaks above 2420, it looks like a chopfest type of day with a bias up.

Here, an hour into trading, with all of the negative economic reports put out today [“don’t worry, though, the clueless Twits at the FED call this “Transitory”, and nothing at all to worry about … even though it’s been like this for over 6 months and counting”.], the market has settled into it’s “sleepytime” phase of “a little up & a little down”, and now it’s time to bore you to death, or chop your account up. Perfect. And, with the manipulative bids from the central banks firmly in place in key stocks, and the “Plunge Protection Team” [crude oil version] in energy at the ready just in case, good luck seeing ±10 Dow30 points anytime soon. “It’s absolutely sickening to me to see markets in this condition; there isn’t anything “free and open” about any of this; all we can do is profit from their actions at the right time. Anything else would be counter-productive”. One of these days, one of these central banks is going start pulling bids during the New York day, and when that happens, it’s gonna get interesting to the downside … not predictin’, just sayin’.

Here a half hour before Noon in New York, and outside of the opening 15 minutes of stupidity, we can’t even get a 3 index point range in the SP500, or about a 25 point range in the Dow30 … like I said before, bids placed and nobody is gonna hit ‘em, and nobody will buy this stuff unless/until the central banks raise their bids and they can be front runned … and so, we sit with no range and no interest cuz there isn’t a trader out there who is willing to sell this stuff “in the hole” and hit bids … been there, done that, and all of ‘em have arrows protruding from their chests … and this is the reason we simply sit here and nothing is happening.

And nothing says manipulation better than watching the SP500 go up 7 full index points while the Dow30 goes … 30 points? No selling whatsoever … no back & forth whatsoever … only reluctant buying straight up, as the great MAY 2017 bear market is over. WTF; you buy this stuff on the rally and get back to me. “And what you are witnessing in real time, not just in the stock indices but every market traded, is the biggest con job ever perpetrated in the history of the world … a gigantic money transfer scheme & wealth creation engine for the elites of corporate globalism. Can’t wait to see how this ends some day when SHTF”.

If you happen to be watching in real time how this stuff trades, notice the total lack of a “market” on both sides; there are only very fast spikes up & equally vicious spikes down, and everything else is a 1, 2 , or 3 point M1 that does nothing until the next round of bids are adjusted and the front runners rush in to fill the void left by the abandoned or raised bid. Is this anybody’s definition of a market? It’s simply a classic manipulation higher until a bid is lowered and somebody panic sells and the process repeats over and over again. Watching the Dow30 rally today, reminds me of the fattest kid in my 6^th grade class climbing a hill … not a pretty picture.

Yesterday, in a response to a post on ZH, I said the squeeze in the hedge fund community for the “gamma shorts” in the June expiration is about to start … get set for the SP500 explosion through 2420 and 2425 … what I didn’t expect was it to come through today’s Chicago Noon hour and blast straight up from 2117 to 2129 without a rest; simply a straight up squeeze with no mercy and no panic. Really, I’m at a loss for words in how these indices are trading right now … the entire afternoon rally didn’t see more than 1 or 2 M1 candlesticks go down more than 2-3 index points on the bid side during the 70+ point move … and like the SP500, no panic, no big spikes up, just a slow squeeze higher that saw nothing but rising prices to the top.

So, here we sit, and out of the blue comes the central bank manipulation “blitz” … no breaks to buy, and I’m sure as hell not buying the rally … nothing to do but be patient and wait for our opportunities. Once again today, we see the “one & done” phenomena as the BTFD-ippers are totally convinced that first break after the open is it and pile into the indices in spades – it’s worked recently, but history suggests to leave it alone. Again, I’m not sitting here to make $2 and change on my way to a million bucks, and the Dow30 along with the rest of the indices are frustrating the hell out of me due to their inability [thank you manipulators] to produce and maintain two-way market action; but I’m not going to chase it and get caught up in something that gets me whacked, counter to what my intentions are.

Today, we had the up blitz come during the Chicago Noon hour, meaning there is a 90%+ probability the market can’t hit a new high during the last 2 hours of trading … it’s the reason I didn’t get long on any of the mini-breaks after the market hit its high … where’s the trade going with a 90%+ probability of it not being the way I want? Somebody tell me where my exit strategy is in a scenario like that, cuz I don’t see a profitable one. Granted, I’m not doing cartwheels cuz I scalped the Dow30 for a point, but I ain’t getting whacked or getting in serious trouble either … however the money gets made, and my philosophy is like the high roller casinos in Las Vegas, who have the penny slot machines in the corner … they’ll take your money any way and in any amount you want to give it to them … they won’t discriminate, I promise you. So, however the market wants to reward us, that’s how we’ll take it without risking anywhere near what others risk to get fractional gains. Like I’ve said before, the PAMM is a Dow30 ETF without the overnight risk and sharply lower prices. We take what the market gives cuz that’s all we can reasonably do.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

Time for the beach! … I’m so outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

POLLING THE INSANE ASYLUM

“Wall Street’s newest spokesman for awesome!”

Once a showman, always a showman and it’s good to see “Baghdad Bob” shilling for Wall Street; of course, he’s with us “in spirit” only cuz he finds the commute to Broad & Wall from the UAE tiresome & problematic, what with traffic and all. When “Bob” spoke during the Iraq war, you really didn’t know whether to laugh or cry, to maybe check the coffee you were drinking to see if somebody had slipped something into it, cuz it was very hard to take anything this assclown had to say seriously; in the end, he became a parody of himself.

And now you know how Wall Street analysts, brokers, Pols, Apparatchiks that shill for Pols, FED Pie Holes, & “talking heads” get through the day; shamelessly shilling for companies, the FED, politicians, and corporate execs who should be in prison somewhere making license plates. Rinse & repeat, erect the same code of behavior for the next day, and hopefully your career or life will be over before the whole system collapses so you can enjoy the crumbs of spoils the system left for you.

And to this end, I note with amusement more “lamentations & cries of grief” from none other than Richie Breslow over at Bloomberg, who in an article posted on Zero Hedge [here’s the link if you need a good chuckle: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-20/breslow-traders-have-been-getting-crucified-when-trying-express-long-term-views ], lays out the jaded view that, “hey, it’s getting really tough to make a buck or two out here … I got expenses … I mean, seriously, you people in D.C. & in the Eccles Building, stop with the flipping & flopping with all this shit and let me make some money”! And when you start to see stuff like this, you know the inmates in the Wall Street asylum have been polled, don’t like much having to think for a living, and would much prefer to feed off of something, anything, for a while so they can eat. Richie speaks for “the Street”, gets a check from Bloomberg, and takes what he hears among the inmates, runs it by “Baghdad Bob” … and voila!! … we got us some news”!

I’ve said it before and I will say it again; “in no other pit or market ever traded do you see on a daily basis what you see in stock indices. One day you can’t get an uptick to save your life if you’re long and when it’s over you’re convinced a new bear market is upon us; the very next day, with very little or no news, you can’t get a downtick to save your life if you’re short and you’re now convinced the bull is back! I think I’m having a nervous breakdown”!

And here we are a few hours before the open, and the news flow says stocks are higher cuz election fears in France eased overnight cuz of a “new” poll. “Wait … what? Seriously, I’m supposed to believe this? Why anybody with any money that could even think about buying stocks would be in France to begin with leaves me LMAO; it doesn’t matter who wins in France if you’ve got money, cuz whoever it is, they’re coming after you. It’s what socialists, communists, progressives, liberals, whatever you want to call them … it’s the ‘free shit crowd’ European version … they’ve convinced enough doofus French Fries that your money is really their money and not only do they deserve it but they’re entitled to it, so they’re gonna take it one way or another. Yea, buy French stocks … sure … maybe in 10 years you can sell them on the Sharia exchange opening soon”.

Enough with France; a place once bestowed with “enlightenment”, chivalry, and a glorious history, now reduced to third world country status by its own making; this is the rot of European socialism on full display.

Turning to today’s trade … as if on cue, we’ve been open in New York about an hour and a half, and outside the mish mash opening clusterfark of institutional buys & sells that punctuate every single day at the open, you can’t find more than 2 consecutive M1 candles that are down. Remember the bear market that started yesterday afternoon when we broke 20430 on the downside? “Yea well, neither does anybody else”!

And so it goes, shorts held over from yesterday [hello Richie Breslow & pals] begging for a break, wondering why the short trading Gods have left them on the battlefield to die; wondering, staring at the trading floor ceiling mumbling to themselves, can’t figure out why we can’t even get a frickin’ downtick in anything; and more than likely it will get worse before it gets better.

Signals? How am I supposed to get a buy signal when the longest M1 down streak stands at “2”, two hours into trading? Outside of 4 M1’s, this stuff hasn’t moved 8 ticks. Still, it’s early yet. “Hooray, the streak ends at 15:17 with 3 now … break out the balloons”.

Like I said, as if on cue … and the shorts are getting crushed off of a French poll; “yea, seriously” [“I wonder if it’s the same polling group that showed Cankles winning the U.S. election a day before she lost”?] … here in the early New York P.M., still no break in price whatsoever from the opening minutes, unless you want to tell me 2 M1’s for 8 index points is now a “break” and that’s somehow a buy signal … people don’t want to believe me when I tell them about stock indices, like somehow I’m full of bat guano or something, or got some spiked egg nog at the old folks home and can’t even remember my name … but, here it is in “living color” [“what a great comedy show from the ‘80’s right”?]; one day straight down, the next straight up. Just your basic 200 point drop followed immediately by a 200 point ramp up on a poll, some “blah blah yada yada” from Mnuchin on taxes, sprinkled with more bad economic news coming out along with Verizon slipping; “what’s not to like? Totally predictable no”?

Of course, what this all means is “zero” ... until Sunday night shows up and we get to see which socialist gets to take France over a cliff in the next few years, everything is pretty much meaningless; last 6 days, 250 index points down, 250 index points up, very few if any signals via the algorithm as people either panic buy or panic sell. Yesterday was the “bear market”; today is the “bull market”. Confused?

And here at 2 P.M. in New York, trading has taken on simply “stupid” conditions; we’ve rallied over 200 points straight up and the panic on the short side is getting serious. I don’t know where this ends, but without some kind of 30 – 50 point break over at least 15 – 20 minutes, there’s no way I’m getting sucked into this crap.

Once again today, we see highs for the day occur during the Chicago Noon hour [officially defined by me as 11:30 A.M. – 1:00 P.M. Chicago time]; as I said yesterday, there’s about a 90% probability that when you see this, there won’t be enough power to propel the market higher after 1 P.M. Chicago time into the close. The buying power got used up too early to have an affect on the close; the other 10% of the time is fireworks. It looks and feels like today’s high will hold, but who knows the way this stuff is acting lately. And again today also, it’s the political Pie Holes [Mnuchin with tax talk, French polls that favor the “establishment” (of course they do!), and Pols talking up health care again] that got the shorts scrambling for cover and taking losses. Since we got our first break of the day shortly before 2 P.M. New York time, signals have broken down due to the fact the market is now going sideways; whatever break there was, if in fact it was going to go another leg up into the close most likely would have started by now. That doesn’t mean it goes lower [although it most certainly could], it just means the most current signals have lost their statistical significance unless we get another leg down.

It’s 1 hour before the close, and I’m pulling the plug on today with no trades, simply because there weren’t any; frustrating beyond belief. Even after all these years of seeing stock indices action, it never ceases to amaze me how sometimes these indices markets can be so one sided one day, and completely 180 degrees opposite the next. If you think it was bad watching it on a computer screen, you have no idea what it was like in a trading pit; this was a day that would have seen more than a couple of fist fights, shoving matches, and general “F bomb” madness beyond belief. However, it is what it is, and days like this come with the territory. What with the French elections coming Sunday [results Sunday night], Friday position squaring, and general chaos on the Korean peninsula going into the weekend, tomorrow should be interesting to say the least. “Some days & weeks, this crap just makes you shake your head”.

PAMM/MAM spreadsheet directly below.

 

Time for the beach! … I’m outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR ‘TURNKEY FOREX’  PAMM/MAM  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!