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Thursday, April 20, 2017

POLLING THE INSANE ASYLUM

“Wall Street’s newest spokesman for awesome!”

Once a showman, always a showman and it’s good to see “Baghdad Bob” shilling for Wall Street; of course, he’s with us “in spirit” only cuz he finds the commute to Broad & Wall from the UAE tiresome & problematic, what with traffic and all. When “Bob” spoke during the Iraq war, you really didn’t know whether to laugh or cry, to maybe check the coffee you were drinking to see if somebody had slipped something into it, cuz it was very hard to take anything this assclown had to say seriously; in the end, he became a parody of himself.

And now you know how Wall Street analysts, brokers, Pols, Apparatchiks that shill for Pols, FED Pie Holes, & “talking heads” get through the day; shamelessly shilling for companies, the FED, politicians, and corporate execs who should be in prison somewhere making license plates. Rinse & repeat, erect the same code of behavior for the next day, and hopefully your career or life will be over before the whole system collapses so you can enjoy the crumbs of spoils the system left for you.

And to this end, I note with amusement more “lamentations & cries of grief” from none other than Richie Breslow over at Bloomberg, who in an article posted on Zero Hedge [here’s the link if you need a good chuckle: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-20/breslow-traders-have-been-getting-crucified-when-trying-express-long-term-views ], lays out the jaded view that, “hey, it’s getting really tough to make a buck or two out here … I got expenses … I mean, seriously, you people in D.C. & in the Eccles Building, stop with the flipping & flopping with all this shit and let me make some money”! And when you start to see stuff like this, you know the inmates in the Wall Street asylum have been polled, don’t like much having to think for a living, and would much prefer to feed off of something, anything, for a while so they can eat. Richie speaks for “the Street”, gets a check from Bloomberg, and takes what he hears among the inmates, runs it by “Baghdad Bob” … and voila!! … we got us some news”!

I’ve said it before and I will say it again; “in no other pit or market ever traded do you see on a daily basis what you see in stock indices. One day you can’t get an uptick to save your life if you’re long and when it’s over you’re convinced a new bear market is upon us; the very next day, with very little or no news, you can’t get a downtick to save your life if you’re short and you’re now convinced the bull is back! I think I’m having a nervous breakdown”!

And here we are a few hours before the open, and the news flow says stocks are higher cuz election fears in France eased overnight cuz of a “new” poll. “Wait … what? Seriously, I’m supposed to believe this? Why anybody with any money that could even think about buying stocks would be in France to begin with leaves me LMAO; it doesn’t matter who wins in France if you’ve got money, cuz whoever it is, they’re coming after you. It’s what socialists, communists, progressives, liberals, whatever you want to call them … it’s the ‘free shit crowd’ European version … they’ve convinced enough doofus French Fries that your money is really their money and not only do they deserve it but they’re entitled to it, so they’re gonna take it one way or another. Yea, buy French stocks … sure … maybe in 10 years you can sell them on the Sharia exchange opening soon”.

Enough with France; a place once bestowed with “enlightenment”, chivalry, and a glorious history, now reduced to third world country status by its own making; this is the rot of European socialism on full display.

Turning to today’s trade … as if on cue, we’ve been open in New York about an hour and a half, and outside the mish mash opening clusterfark of institutional buys & sells that punctuate every single day at the open, you can’t find more than 2 consecutive M1 candles that are down. Remember the bear market that started yesterday afternoon when we broke 20430 on the downside? “Yea well, neither does anybody else”!

And so it goes, shorts held over from yesterday [hello Richie Breslow & pals] begging for a break, wondering why the short trading Gods have left them on the battlefield to die; wondering, staring at the trading floor ceiling mumbling to themselves, can’t figure out why we can’t even get a frickin’ downtick in anything; and more than likely it will get worse before it gets better.

Signals? How am I supposed to get a buy signal when the longest M1 down streak stands at “2”, two hours into trading? Outside of 4 M1’s, this stuff hasn’t moved 8 ticks. Still, it’s early yet. “Hooray, the streak ends at 15:17 with 3 now … break out the balloons”.

Like I said, as if on cue … and the shorts are getting crushed off of a French poll; “yea, seriously” [“I wonder if it’s the same polling group that showed Cankles winning the U.S. election a day before she lost”?] … here in the early New York P.M., still no break in price whatsoever from the opening minutes, unless you want to tell me 2 M1’s for 8 index points is now a “break” and that’s somehow a buy signal … people don’t want to believe me when I tell them about stock indices, like somehow I’m full of bat guano or something, or got some spiked egg nog at the old folks home and can’t even remember my name … but, here it is in “living color” [“what a great comedy show from the ‘80’s right”?]; one day straight down, the next straight up. Just your basic 200 point drop followed immediately by a 200 point ramp up on a poll, some “blah blah yada yada” from Mnuchin on taxes, sprinkled with more bad economic news coming out along with Verizon slipping; “what’s not to like? Totally predictable no”?

Of course, what this all means is “zero” ... until Sunday night shows up and we get to see which socialist gets to take France over a cliff in the next few years, everything is pretty much meaningless; last 6 days, 250 index points down, 250 index points up, very few if any signals via the algorithm as people either panic buy or panic sell. Yesterday was the “bear market”; today is the “bull market”. Confused?

And here at 2 P.M. in New York, trading has taken on simply “stupid” conditions; we’ve rallied over 200 points straight up and the panic on the short side is getting serious. I don’t know where this ends, but without some kind of 30 – 50 point break over at least 15 – 20 minutes, there’s no way I’m getting sucked into this crap.

Once again today, we see highs for the day occur during the Chicago Noon hour [officially defined by me as 11:30 A.M. – 1:00 P.M. Chicago time]; as I said yesterday, there’s about a 90% probability that when you see this, there won’t be enough power to propel the market higher after 1 P.M. Chicago time into the close. The buying power got used up too early to have an affect on the close; the other 10% of the time is fireworks. It looks and feels like today’s high will hold, but who knows the way this stuff is acting lately. And again today also, it’s the political Pie Holes [Mnuchin with tax talk, French polls that favor the “establishment” (of course they do!), and Pols talking up health care again] that got the shorts scrambling for cover and taking losses. Since we got our first break of the day shortly before 2 P.M. New York time, signals have broken down due to the fact the market is now going sideways; whatever break there was, if in fact it was going to go another leg up into the close most likely would have started by now. That doesn’t mean it goes lower [although it most certainly could], it just means the most current signals have lost their statistical significance unless we get another leg down.

It’s 1 hour before the close, and I’m pulling the plug on today with no trades, simply because there weren’t any; frustrating beyond belief. Even after all these years of seeing stock indices action, it never ceases to amaze me how sometimes these indices markets can be so one sided one day, and completely 180 degrees opposite the next. If you think it was bad watching it on a computer screen, you have no idea what it was like in a trading pit; this was a day that would have seen more than a couple of fist fights, shoving matches, and general “F bomb” madness beyond belief. However, it is what it is, and days like this come with the territory. What with the French elections coming Sunday [results Sunday night], Friday position squaring, and general chaos on the Korean peninsula going into the weekend, tomorrow should be interesting to say the least. “Some days & weeks, this crap just makes you shake your head”.

PAMM/MAM spreadsheet directly below.
 





Time for the beach! … I’m outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!
-vegas
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