website header 2

website header 2

Tuesday, April 4, 2017


“Life / trading: all that matters is ultimately winning on your terms!”

Six dollar range at Noon in New York, with a new high, then a new low, back to the 50% retracement line, and for 2 hours we’ve been sitting in “chop” where some M1’s are less than a dime in scope; “Good God, what have they done to this once great trading market”? But first things first.

Those “pesky” Chuckleheads last night; first they take it lower, and then they take it slightly higher, and now we’re sitting right near the 50% retracement line to start the New York day here at 8 A.M. Key support for USDJPY down around the 110.11 – 110 level keeping a lid on gold for now; if that level of USDJPY gives way today or in the next couple of days it could get ugly on the upside for gold shorts.

Still, 10th day in a row we come into the New York session with an HVALUE < $5 per Oz., sitting at $4.58 as we start the trading day. Looking at today, USDJPY is the “driver” of this school bus today, and at the moment right here before we start the trading day in New York, the last 13 of 15 HR4 candlesticks in USDJPY are on the downside; and while that certainly doesn’t mean it can’t end up 15 out of 17 at the end of the day, there is room for a nasty upside surprise should the Yen buyers go on strike at these levels; that in turn, could lead to some unwelcome downdrafts in gold to the SDEV [standard deviation] lines on the M1. Like yesterday, today feels “slow”, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see another $9 or $10 range today, given the “fun” the rest of the week starts tomorrow with the FED Pie Holes and their useless minutes.

Market goes bid above 1261 on Yen strength [USDJPY WEAKNESS], but a very quick rebound in the pair has seen gold slip; again, with the changes I have made to the algorithm, there isn’t anything different in the fact our goal is not to pick tops & bottoms. This is a “fool’s errand”, for the very simple reason [using today as a “prime” example], if you sell up here with a stop above, you are setting yourself up for a potentially nasty fill on a buy stop through 1266 that could very easily see a fill in the low 1270’s; what you think is a couple of bucks risk ends up being over $10 per Oz., and it isn’t a question of “if” it will ever happen to you, it’s a question of “when”.

Here in the first half hour, gold broke right down to the 50% retracement line for the day [on 17 PIP USDJPY rally] @ 1258.22; this is no mistake nor is it an accident, simply the “obvious” support area on any potential move down. Our aqua open line today is at 1260.40, so we need to see gold above 1262.40 for buying, and 1258.40 for selling; depending on what USDJPY does and whether or not it can hold that critical support level at 110 – 110.11 area, will tell us ultimately where gold ends up the day before our “3 day funfest” starts in earnest tomorrow.

And with that above in mind, and the daily looking very much “doji like” as we head towards the afternoon, I still haven’t made a trade simply because there isn’t any trade to make, and second even if there was a signal I don’t want to be basing trade decisions off of 7 cent M1’s. I dunno, tell me where I’m wrong here, cuz I’m not seein’ anything but serious “chop” and bullion dealer stop hunts with pretty much zero activity in price change. With the way the electronic gold market is structured via XAUUSD, unless you simply want to go “coin flipping” for results, there isn’t any way you can make money with 1) a reversal, 2) the “Flying Wedge of Death”, and 3) very little trading activity inside a $6 - $6.50 range for the day. Between the spread, RT commissions, and most importantly slippage, go ahead and let me know how that scalping for 30 cents goes after your fills and/or stops on “mystery ticks” appears. “Thanks … no thanks”.

So, unless this crap does another very late afternoon “mystery move”, we’re staring at the 10th day in a row of pure crapola; very possible another daily doji in the works or at least something very much looking like it. But rest assured, according to the “talking heads”, starting tomorrow with the Fed minutes and then going into Friday … blah blah, yada yada … heard this BS before; simply put, don’t count on it!

I sure hope the “talking heads” are right this time, cuz this kind of action I’m looking at is so pathetic on so many levels I don’t even know where to start; now you know why I have never charged a “management fee” on funds I manage. Right now I’m not managing anything, just sitting here and watching markets die; sure, a little melodramatic statement to wake everyone up, but in all seriousness, I can’t remember the last time markets [all of them] were this bad in terms of overall volatility.

Ok, nothing really to say about today that hasn’t been said; a $7 & change day with one quick move up, and one quick move down, and then back to the middle for the infamous “Flying Wedge of Death” that very slow “doji like” days are known for that many trader’s end up losing a fortune. Let’s hope tomorrow is better … we’ll see what the FED Pie Holes come up with at 2 PM New York time, as they mightily try and placate everyone for maximum confusion. No trades today.

PAMM/MAM Spreadsheet directly below.

Beach beckons … I’m outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great weekend everybody!

No comments:

Post a Comment