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Thursday, June 1, 2017

HOW WAS THE BEAR MARKET?

“Ok, which one of you said the word bacon?”

I’m sittin’ here yesterday, trying to figure out where the hell the API crude oil inventory report is @ 10:30 … cuz earlier I know I saw that it was to be reported at that time … lately stocks have closely correlated with crude, and since we were close to critical support where the “Plunge Protection Team” [oil version natch] had come in before to buy oil futures and thus rally stocks, I didn’t want to get caught in something that takes crude down like a $1.50 in 2 seconds, only to see the Dow30 gap lower as well. And like I said yesterday, reporting in crude oil has always been a nightmare, as the industry changes the parameters for reporting [I think], just to piss me off.

And so, in order to 1) keep my cool, and 2) not literally go insane over the stupidity of the oil industry, I said it’s time to think “happy thoughts”… like puppies for instance … and there’s the dog almost immediately sitting right there in front of me … looking up … and basically saying to me, “you said ‘bacon’ didn’t you? I heard somebody say ‘bacon’ … was it you? … Ok, it doesn’t matter … I need “bacon” like right now, OK? … hey, are you listen’ to me”? “And I’m like … did somebody in the oil biz put you up to this”? And just like that, the bear market is over, stocks can erratically move higher, especially into the totally manipulated close, and the dog gets bacon; me? I get butkus.

And my point here isn’t what you think; for practically my entire adult life, which has been in trading [over more years than I care to count], this is what trading is all about … which is screwing up, accepting it, and simply moving on to the next trade or day. It’s easier said than done, cuz in trading there isn’t anything that’s done by “corporate committee” or other such nonsense; you don’t have time to “think” or explore options like you’re sitting in the faculty lounge all secure in your salary and tenure, while pontificating the various world events swirling around you. You got “now”, and a decision has to be made … having said that, most professional traders will straight up admit they are wrong most of the time … that it is dealing with failure that makes them rich and gives them their lifestyle.

However, there come times, when you feel like you are in “The Twilight Zone” cuz paradigms are changing faster than you would like to admit … nonetheless, they are changing, and ignoring or refusing to “see” what is happening versus what you’d like to see will only lead to results nobody is going to like. For over 20 years, not a damn thing changed in the trading world, and you would be very hard pressed to find anybody who has been around as long as I have say they “expected” the changes that have taken place in the last 15 years or so with the advent of electronic trading via the internet. And just when you think you got things figured out, along come more changes that baffle the hell out of you. Well, we’ve finally reached the endgame in this charade.

And this “endgame” is the manipulation of every market traded to some extent by the world’s largest central banks [FED, BOJ, ECB, BOE, & the SNB]. They are the cause and the reason for “Speed of Light Trading … Crickets”, and the world isn’t ever going back to the way it was before unless there is a total revolution in the Western Democracies with blood in the streets. Don’t look for it anytime soon.

Cuz when you look at markets through the prism of manipulation, the only ones that make any sense to trade are the stock indices … everything else [except maybe for crude oil] is a total “flip of a coin”, and to be blunt about it, that’s not good enough for me. I’ll be the very first one to admit, these last months stretching back to 2015 have not been particularly kind to me as a professional trader … that’s the bad news … the good news is twofold; 1) I ain’t been “whacked” Tony Soprano style by any market as the markets changed paradigms, and 2) I’ve adjusted my trading to the manipulation and profits are returning. It’s the reason the PAMM is strictly trading the U.S. stock indices; relatively speaking the manipulations are the easiest to read. All we need to really get going are larger ranges and somewhat higher intraday volatilities; at present they are at 50 year lows, so from my standpoint there isn’t anything but upside here in terms of activity.

Turning to today’s market … “well, did you like that manipulative close yesterday off of inside info on the oil inventory numbers coming 30 minutes later? Think that was a coincidence”? All that did was rob early buying today of firepower. Here in the pre-market [about an hour to the open], we start to see prices rally as traders see the institutional Chipmunks start to place bids for the open … knowing they go in during the first 5 minutes, they’ll see to it they pay top dollar for their stocks. And, 5 minutes after the open the market is right back to where it should have opened without the manipulation from 90 minutes ago. Such is life for the Chipmunks.

First trade of the day after the numbers shenanigans of ISM & ADP, what with straight up and then straight down, and then move up near the high. Not excited about the prospects here cuz the Dow30 is the weakest of the 3 indices, but I want to be long if the opening level breaks to the upside.


When it won’t go, it won’t go, and I bailed simply because the only way this goes higher is a blast by the SP500 through 2420 with conviction, and it doesn’t appear that is happening; when presented with anything above my entry point I liquidate, and just for the record the LP didn’t do us any favors with a little slippage thrown in cuz they can for no reason other than pure greed [I frickin’ hate LP’s] … it is what it is, I’m just sayin’ there was no need for the slippage as the market wasn’t headed down at the time I liquidated. But, it’s useless and counter-productive to bitch and moan to Turnkey about it cuz I know what their response is gonna be; better to save my “bitching ammo” for more opportune times in the future which I hope never come.

“OMG! Somebody call the trading police; the NDX100 is lower on the day … is this legal? Can the markets survive a lower NDX100 day? Something to keep an eye on as the day goes forward, cuz a break below 5762 is gonna set off a total “bat guano storm” of potential sell stops”. So far, unless the SP500 convincingly breaks above 2420, it looks like a chopfest type of day with a bias up.

Here, an hour into trading, with all of the negative economic reports put out today [“don’t worry, though, the clueless Twits at the FED call this “Transitory”, and nothing at all to worry about … even though it’s been like this for over 6 months and counting”.], the market has settled into it’s “sleepytime” phase of “a little up & a little down”, and now it’s time to bore you to death, or chop your account up. Perfect. And, with the manipulative bids from the central banks firmly in place in key stocks, and the “Plunge Protection Team” [crude oil version] in energy at the ready just in case, good luck seeing ±10 Dow30 points anytime soon. “It’s absolutely sickening to me to see markets in this condition; there isn’t anything “free and open” about any of this; all we can do is profit from their actions at the right time. Anything else would be counter-productive”. One of these days, one of these central banks is going start pulling bids during the New York day, and when that happens, it’s gonna get interesting to the downside … not predictin’, just sayin’.

Here a half hour before Noon in New York, and outside of the opening 15 minutes of stupidity, we can’t even get a 3 index point range in the SP500, or about a 25 point range in the Dow30 … like I said before, bids placed and nobody is gonna hit ‘em, and nobody will buy this stuff unless/until the central banks raise their bids and they can be front runned … and so, we sit with no range and no interest cuz there isn’t a trader out there who is willing to sell this stuff “in the hole” and hit bids … been there, done that, and all of ‘em have arrows protruding from their chests … and this is the reason we simply sit here and nothing is happening.

And nothing says manipulation better than watching the SP500 go up 7 full index points while the Dow30 goes … 30 points? No selling whatsoever … no back & forth whatsoever … only reluctant buying straight up, as the great MAY 2017 bear market is over. WTF; you buy this stuff on the rally and get back to me. “And what you are witnessing in real time, not just in the stock indices but every market traded, is the biggest con job ever perpetrated in the history of the world … a gigantic money transfer scheme & wealth creation engine for the elites of corporate globalism. Can’t wait to see how this ends some day when SHTF”.

If you happen to be watching in real time how this stuff trades, notice the total lack of a “market” on both sides; there are only very fast spikes up & equally vicious spikes down, and everything else is a 1, 2 , or 3 point M1 that does nothing until the next round of bids are adjusted and the front runners rush in to fill the void left by the abandoned or raised bid. Is this anybody’s definition of a market? It’s simply a classic manipulation higher until a bid is lowered and somebody panic sells and the process repeats over and over again. Watching the Dow30 rally today, reminds me of the fattest kid in my 6th grade class climbing a hill … not a pretty picture.

Yesterday, in a response to a post on ZH, I said the squeeze in the hedge fund community for the “gamma shorts” in the June expiration is about to start … get set for the SP500 explosion through 2420 and 2425 … what I didn’t expect was it to come through today’s Chicago Noon hour and blast straight up from 2117 to 2129 without a rest; simply a straight up squeeze with no mercy and no panic. Really, I’m at a loss for words in how these indices are trading right now … the entire afternoon rally didn’t see more than 1 or 2 M1 candlesticks go down more than 2-3 index points on the bid side during the 70+ point move … and like the SP500, no panic, no big spikes up, just a slow squeeze higher that saw nothing but rising prices to the top.

So, here we sit, and out of the blue comes the central bank manipulation “blitz” … no breaks to buy, and I’m sure as hell not buying the rally … nothing to do but be patient and wait for our opportunities. Once again today, we see the “one & done” phenomena as the BTFD-ippers are totally convinced that first break after the open is it and pile into the indices in spades – it’s worked recently, but history suggests to leave it alone. Again, I’m not sitting here to make $2 and change on my way to a million bucks, and the Dow30 along with the rest of the indices are frustrating the hell out of me due to their inability [thank you manipulators] to produce and maintain two-way market action; but I’m not going to chase it and get caught up in something that gets me whacked, counter to what my intentions are.

Today, we had the up blitz come during the Chicago Noon hour, meaning there is a 90%+ probability the market can’t hit a new high during the last 2 hours of trading … it’s the reason I didn’t get long on any of the mini-breaks after the market hit its high … where’s the trade going with a 90%+ probability of it not being the way I want? Somebody tell me where my exit strategy is in a scenario like that, cuz I don’t see a profitable one. Granted, I’m not doing cartwheels cuz I scalped the Dow30 for a point, but I ain’t getting whacked or getting in serious trouble either … however the money gets made, and my philosophy is like the high roller casinos in Las Vegas, who have the penny slot machines in the corner … they’ll take your money any way and in any amount you want to give it to them … they won’t discriminate, I promise you. So, however the market wants to reward us, that’s how we’ll take it without risking anywhere near what others risk to get fractional gains. Like I’ve said before, the PAMM is a Dow30 ETF without the overnight risk and sharply lower prices. We take what the market gives cuz that’s all we can reasonably do.

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.



Time for the beach! … I’m so outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX  “PAMM/MAM”  IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

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