“Dow30 30,000 by the end of the year!”
And why not, what’s to stop it? If you could print up worthless Yen, Swiss Francs, and Euros every night, and then swap them for dollars with the banks, you got “free money” to buy stock & eventually control any company on Earth; why stop the merry-go-round?
I don’t want to sound like a broken record, and so there is no need for me to repeat the manipulation mantra endlessly every day, but let me simply point out that practically everything gained is happening on very low volume, in the wee hours when nobody is looking, and when prices can easily be manipulated by those wishing to “shove it” in a particular direction, and that for the most part during the New York session, stocks are dull as dishwater. A perfect recipe for manipulation if there ever was one.
So “natch”, it makes perfect sense for the indices to go “orbital” the night before the volatile release of NFP this morning … right? I mean, what could be more sane than ramping the Dow30 up 100 points on “vapor” going into the numbers? Which proves my point that nothing means anything anymore; only what the FED & other central planners “do” really matters, and everything else is bullshit for the masses and talking heads on CNBC that got nothing better to do than endlessly repeat the mantra, “Everything is F-ing Awesome Baby”! So, whatever the NFP number today, it will be spun “positive” for stocks … FED rate hike in June? … positive for stocks cuz the economy can handle it … No FED rate hike in June? … positive for stocks cuz STFU and buy moar!
So, the bids will get placed, the market ramps, and trading dies until sometime this morning the central bank bids get raised again to buy moar Apple and moar Google, and the averages can take off again in 5 seconds and gain another 30 points and bury shorts for the umpteenth millionth time. Rinse & repeat until Jesus comes back, and this is the only paradigm that matters anymore; there won’t be another cuz the central planners won’t allow it … this is it. And when it’s time for a new “bear market” [less than 48 hours to be sure, cuz people just can’t stand the pain], the FED trots out another FED Pie Hole Show Pony [like they did earlier this week] to hit the airwaves and assure the investing public that “all is well”, and to maintain the necessary illusion that markets aren’t rigged, he/she will happily assure you that corrections are “healthy” and there isn’t anything to worry your little investing head about … the FED has got you covered don’tchaknow? And that’s it folks … everything pre-2016 [they learned their lesson from the oil crisis of Jan.-Feb. 2016] means ZERO … charts, patterns, price analysis … it’s all meaningless in the new paradigm of central bank control. Did you know that the BOJ and the ECB have LARGER balance sheets than the FED? Do you have any idea how many multiple trillions of dollars of “assets” these 3 money cartels hold and control and are added to on a daily basis? And this doesn’t even count the Swiss, who some day will be telling Apple and Google how to run their biz cuz they will be [at some point] the biggest shareholder … can you picture that political correctness clusterfark?
The evidence is so overwhelmingly clear of the pattern that has emerged in markets; not just stock indices, but of every market. In the last couple of years, we’ve been treated and allowed to see only a couple of the master manipulators at work. First Barclays in FX and Libor and then Deutsche Bank in gold and silver; and while they were caught “red handed” manipulating everything from interest rates to GBPUSD along with gold and silver and fined hundreds of millions of dollars, nobody got put in jail, and once the scapegoats were figured out and lightly punished, it’s back to business as usual. “Government can’t look to close, cuz if they did, somebody will see their f-ing fingerprints all over everything and then start asking questions the elites don’t want asked and surely will never answer. Something about glass houses and stones comes to mind”.
Which means, there is only one solution to making money in the stock indices; up and until nuclear war starts with N. Korea or some such other catastrophe happens that threatens global corporatism, the only way is up and then up some more. Every dip has to be bought, and the old rules about “two-way” market trading action forgotten cuz it’s a thing of the past. That doesn’t mean there won’t be corrections, but the early ones can be bought and the ones after 2 P.M. can be ignored cuz they only get you into trouble. The central banks are “all in” on the scam cuz they see it as the only way to pursue and achieve their policy objectives … and the dirty little secret is that there isn’t anyone or anything that has more political power or money [the CNTRL-P machine] that can stop them short of a total revolution … so why would anybody expect them to stop? I’m certainly not expecting them to stop … and until I see a valid reason why they might fail, I’m all in with ‘em cuz it’s my job to make money, not figure out why they are doing it.
Turning to today’s market … NFP in couple of hours … trust me, the number won’t matter … nothing in it matters … anything and everything is bullish stocks, and no matter the numbers it will be spun by the talking heads as bullish … cuz that’s their job. Consensus is 185K … actual 138K … not to worry, some FED Pie Hole or other Apparatchik will be on the boob tube telling us it’s a good thing and stocks can go higher.
Ahhh, you can’t beat fun at the old ballpark now can you? Seems the “number” got some folks a little upset and not buying the mantra … not to worry, once they are gone prices can rally once again. Ok, we had an approximate 60 point break now followed by a 30 point rally back; does this first break hold off of the bat guano NFP numbers? Lately, it’s been holding, but quite frankly even with central bank manipulation, it’s hard for me to see how “they” can spin these numbers as positive and get the market back above last night’s “vapor rally” over 21200 … a more likely scenario once the market opens @ 9:30 is for a further selloff taking these convinced BTFD-ippers on the first break and stopping them out. After that, I can see a better buying opportunity either on that 2nd leg down or even a third leg down if it gets to that. Who knows, we’ll see, but nobody is gonna let this stuff freefall without a severe fight at lower levels.
It is becoming increasingly clear to me that the New York session for stock indices is nothing more than a “protection & defense” mechanism for positions put on earlier. If I have the ability to shove the Dow30 50 points in the “wee hours”, then I can use my bidding power to protect and defend my position later in New York; I don’t need to expend money to buy, all I need is a group of orders to scare the hell out of short players. So, here we sit with no action after a nighttime of plenty, and a report that disappoints, with no buying/selling to speak of, and everybody looking around and asking, “Well, WTF now? Cuz we’re sitting here between 21150 – 21165 and doing nothing but chop. The upside looks limited due to the NFP news, and the downside … well, you sell the bids OK? … And so, if I got caught in something, how the hell do I make it back when we can’t move 5 points either way to save my life”?
First trade of the day yielded nothing, cuz if it’s not going I’m bailing.
Frustrating to be sure, but I’m not going to sit in a position exposing myself unless I have profits in it to risk; otherwise, what’s the point? All we can do is sit and wait to see if the market has anything left or that’s it for the day and week.
Ok, about a little over an hour into this mess, and here we go with the glacial drift up; very small M1’s, no trading activity, only bids that get raised and prices quoted higher … simply F-ing unbelievable is all I can say to what we are witnessing… 50/50 shot at new highs on the close on absolutely nothing but rising bids with nobody willing to sell it to ‘em. STOCKS, CANNOT. BE. ALLOWED. TO. GO. DOWN. EVAHHHHHHHHHH!
Here at approximately Noon in New York, it’s the central bank “bid show” against the world and guess who’s winning? In what I can only describe as blatant manipulation, stocks crawl ever higher with no trading, only raised bids. And if there ever was a day to prove to you my premise, this is “that day”, cuz the NFP numbers weren’t just horrible, they were horrible on steroids; not only were there 50K fewer “jobs” [haha, if you want to call them that] created, the Department of Unicorns & Fairy Tales revised sharply lower March and April numbers as well. Add in all the lifeguards, bartenders & waitresses that got hired, and the economy is booming right? And yet, here we go again with new “recorder-er” highs in the SP500, Dow30, & of course the NDX100, where you too can buy $1,000 per share stocks selling at 200 times sales or whatever yardstick you want to use. “As for me. I’m investing in Unicorn meat”. EXIT QUESTION: “Given today’s numbers, who in their right mind would bid stocks to record highs”?
And since the lows were put in right after the open, it’s been nothing but a straight march higher to the high … cuz “Fun-durr-mentals” … And, don’t think for a second I haven’t noticed how this stuff is trading for future reference … I see it, I understand it, but I didn’t think the bat guano numbers would be totally ignored today like they have been … never underestimate the power of government to implement an agenda, and make no mistake, the FED has one.
Here in the early P.M., unbelievably we sit just off record highs for all averages, with almost no trade flow of any kind … all I’m seeing is bids adjusted lower or raised, but I don’t see any trading action; in other words, no buyers and sellers, just strictly buyers that accept offers. The two-way action most traders are used to seeing is D.E.A.D., and it ain’t coming back anytime soon; that would be against FED policy and mess up some big girl panties of some elite somewhere.
Finally, sanity of some sort starts to take hold [except in NDX100 where the “Tulip bulb” trade is in full force] … still, unless you wanna buy some of my Unicorn meat, the SP500 & Dow30 are extremely overbought … and really, what we need to see next week, the sooner the better, is one of these first legs lower rally a little and then get totally clocked to the downside and literally blindside the BTFD-ippers with a 2,3, or 4 minute waterfall that sees prices go at least 40 points or so [the more the better] to the downside. And NDX100? If that market doesn’t cool down, you’re more than likely looking at a “bubble top” where prices crater right after the June futures expiration.
Forget the sanity … new highs in the SP500 & NDX100 … and why not, cuz nothing says buy record high stocks more than a set of adjusted sharply lower and horrible employment numbers in the “bartenders & waiters” economy, right along with no health care reform, no tax reform of any kind, and economic numbers that are simply flashing recession. But hey, the FED says it’s “transitory” so no worries, right? Normally, I could care less what the indices levels they are all at are, but when what they are doing produces no “two-way” trading action, it affects my trading and that’s why I care. Since the after open lows, there just hasn’t been anything other than “flips of a coin”, and that’s not good enough for me.
Quite literally, today I got sucked into the news cycle; it’s not the numbers of the fairy tale NFP, but the fact they were so far off street expectations on the negative side combined with 2 prior month revisions down and stagnant wage growth. Add it all up, and you would think 2 + 2 = 4, but not here and not today, where 2 + 2 = 22 and all that matters is the FED says, “Transitory” and “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby”!, and the institutional chipmunks go ‘gaga” over stocks once again right along with the central banks in their effort to own the corporate world.
Second or third legs down I got no problems giving more room for long positions, but not first legs down which historically have been on the light side and have the potential for problems. The fact that even today we couldn’t get a second leg down [what else is new?] given the severity of the negative economic news tells you how much this stuff is bid on breaks. Quite frankly, I don’t care where the indices go … how high or how low … whether you need your head examined to be long at these levels is immaterial … what matters is 1) the “setup” to the trade, and 2) buying breaks [real breaks, not 2 M1 candlesticks for 8 points]. Given the nature of the market, once you get up on the position with these latter 2 breaks you can usually ride them to very good profits. We’ll do that, if the damn market ever decides to give us the opportunity … today I thought after the number, and the market open, we would see a second break down to the 21100 level and maybe slightly below on sell stops … as it was we didn’t even come close, and it was nothing but a race to the top after the low was set. Trust me, it won’t stay like this.
The PAMM has a very, very good algorithm plan for the Dow30; like I said, given the severity of the expectations miss, I didn’t think the market had any chance to go back over 21190 – 21210 level from which it broke down over the NFP report, and I was only willing to buy on breaks below the first low. There’s no way I’m buying a rally up, and I didn’t think any buys in the 21170’s gave me any room for profit. So, once again it’s a very minimal gain for the day, and I feel like a “1 tick wonder trader”, but it beats losing. Onward & Upward we go.
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Time for the beach! … I’m so outta here … until Monday
Have a great weekend everybody!
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MANAGED MONEY PROGRAM” IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!