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Thursday, June 8, 2017

ASSCLOWN THURSDAY

“It looks like the Senate Intelligence Committee is in session!”

Oh, I can hardly wait … Senate Intelligence Committee [an oxymoron if there ever was one] meets to pander to the cameras … nothing learned, nothing done … what else is new from the world’s biggest collection of hypocrites and liars? … I’m surprised they don’t have Senator uniforms, cuz they then could put all kinds of medals on them and they could parade around like important Twits … “Oh wait … they do that now so what’s the difference”?

Of course, we also got the U.K. general elections, which after the most recent terrorist attacks in Londonistan, makes you seriously wonder how anybody in their right mind could vote for Labor, given the fact the Labor leader Corbyn got spotted at a rally with Jihadi terrorists. I’m sure somewhere, Queen Victoria is rolling her eyes and wondering how the Brits could go from world empire to hapless third world Twits within a 100 years.

Which brings me to Super Mario & the ECB; anybody but me notice a large bank failure in the last 48 hours? “Everything is F-ing Awesome Baby!” has spread to Europe; nothing is “news” unless the central banks say it’s news, and also of course if the sycophants in the financial MSM talk about it; which they won’t unless they get permission from their handlers at the central bank. And what? … you thought only North Korea, Cuba, & Venezuela had official “minders” that kept track of what you say and what you write? Well, if you want a job in the news media, and if you want to keep that job, and you want to be able to interview key players, and most importantly you want a nice fat retirement someday when all the favors are called in, you will STFU and do what you’re told. Just ask any of the “Journo’s” at CNBC or Bloomberg.

When it’s all said and done, the most likely scenario coming from the lips of the financial press will be “Everything Is F-ing Awesome Baby!”, and the various “FED Pie Hole Show Pony” types will infect the airwaves on TV with the standard “Stalin 5-year plan is working” mantra, and giddy lapdogs like Steve Liesman will eat it all up with a spoon and concur … and this is what passes for financial news. “Remember, we have always been at war with East Asia, & chocolate production is UP thanks to the brilliance of “Big Brother”; all animals on the farm are equal, only some are more equal than others”!

Of course, it’s easy to see when using this type of “logic”, why it’s necessary to be long about 150% of the time; only question is when and from what level. Twenty years ago you could have never survived with this kind of “mindset”, but it’s the “Golden Age” of central banks, not twenty years ago, and they completely run the show in more ways than one. The investing and trading public has been so compliant in the transition I hardly noticed; and as long as the main criminals infesting Wall Street [JPM, Squid, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, etc.] get their “cut”, nodoby is gonna say nada, zip, zilch, or zero.

In other news, in the other circus legislative branch, the House Oversight Committee has issued a blistering report concluding that Holder & Obama obstructed justice and flat out lied to the slain border patrol agents family, killed in 2010 by weapons OBAMA supplied to Mexican drug cartels. Below is the link if you missed it.


“Oh wait … I forgot … it doesn’t matter anymore … forget that a border patrol agent was killed; he’s just a pawn and it doesn’t matter to the storytellers in D.C. … it’s not part of the official narrative, that in progressive Amerika anything Obama touches can’t be talked about cuz he’s black, and anything negative obviously means you’re a racist; ditto for that scumbag Eric Holder, who you may remember helped Slick Willy pardon Marc Rich for campaign cash back in the 90’s. But, unless you got an “R” after your name, nothing matters anymore so it’s best to not rattle the hornets nest … right”? And besides, if it’s not positive for stocks, is it really news?

Turning to today’s market … stocks higher in pre-market [of course they are, what else is new?] … only question is Super Mario gonna say or do something stupid to upset the apple cart at 8:30 & 8:45 [presser]? … he certainly is capable of it.  Nope, ECB panders to both the bulls & the bears and says little; typical of a central banker.

Well, institutional Chipmunks gotta be Chipmunks, so what else but a rally off of the open a few points? Again, the “setup” for higher prices not looking very good at the moment, cuz a new low and we’re off to the races yet again. Question is, can a new low produce the kind of sell stop selling to below yesterday’s low and 21100? For me, that’s the $64,000 question and the key to today’s action; it’s way too soon of course to draw any conclusions, simply because we don’t know what the central banks are gonna do with their collective bids. If they start pulling them for a “correction”, where do they “draw the line” for the decline and start aggressively bidding again? Somewhere below 21100 and we’ll have the answer.

An hour into this, and you can clearly see the FWD has once again appeared, and the psychotic behavior the Dow30 is exhibiting versus the SP500. We’ve had 2 attempts at breaking out to a new high, and both times the market quickly rejected the advance; is this from the central banks pulling their bids, or is this somebody on the institution side hitting the bids and forcing them to adjust their bids lower? In any event, a weaker SP500 could be the key to seeing a very rapid selling spree in the Dow30, and sell stops being hit off later. We will certainly see.

Here a little after Noon in New York, nothing says stupidity [on my part, not the market] better than 40 - 60 Dow30 points of buy stops getting clicked off right after I liquidate a long position … some days you’re the pigeon [the other day when I sold the high tick], and other days you’re the statute [today]. In any event, the chart directly below with the day’s first trade and some comments. While I lowered my volume cuz I didn’t get to buy it like I wanted, it also meant I had no room for error when it wouldn’t move up … until that is when I liquidated … seems I was holding the market down … and when the SP500 popped some [not much really, only about 1 ½ index points which should equate with about 15 Dow30 points, but instead produced about 60 Dow30 points], the Dow30 went nuts to the upside. “Excuse me while I wipe pigeon goo off myself”!


And so the stupidity rally continues unabated, just like I said yesterday it would when the clown acts were finished for today… F-ing world could burn down and it wouldn’t make any difference cuz central banks want and demand higher stock prices, and by God we are gonna get ‘em no matter the news. Got it? Anything & everything spun bullish for stocks. Now that the shorts have been taken out back and shot in the head, of course prices go right back down in the SP500, but remain elevated in the Dow30 … cuz “fun-durr-mentals”.

If you’re following along at home and wondering why market “technicals” aren’t working, just cast your eyes on the central banks. As I’ve stated before, it’s a tough act judging when they place and adjust bids in key index component stocks; they are going to be random, and they aren’t going to make much sense when you look at a chart … again, everything before 2016, throw it away cuz it means nothing anymore. Initially, I thought making a new high for the day would be tough cuz the SP500 is a real laggard today versus the Dow30 … and while I figured there were stops above the market, I’m surprised they were that big and also the time when they got hit off … the manipulators could have gotten a much bigger bang for the buck if they had waited to 2 – 2:30 P.M. before setting them off … but hey … they’re manipulators not traders, and they have no understanding of trader psychology and how it affects prices going into the close.

And of course, since the buy stops got ran like the “Pampolona Bulls”, since then there is nothing … if you got caught short in this massacre, you now are staring at losses that can’t be made back cuz there is no intraday volatility for you to trade, only sideways action that makes you shake your head in utter despair. Welcome to manipulated markets, where if you don’t understand how to “manipulate the manipulators” for your benefit, in essence you are SCREWED!   

Again, like yesterday, below is the SP500 M1 candlestick chart during the start of the busiest time of day, and I ask; “when everything is simply price points, and there is no trading, and prices jump from one m1 to another with no trades, how the hell does anybody read the market here for anything relating to momentum or market direction”?


There isn’t anything you can tell me about the market from the above M1 … there isn’t any information there. And the dirty little secret is, that over the last hour, anybody buying the indices looking for that momentum to continue on the upside are getting it shoved up where the sun doesn’t shine … so, first kill the shorts, and then cripple the “Johnny come lately” long types looking for the MoMo play to just keep going … well, it isn’t, cuz the 2nd dirty little secret is the central banks don’t much like traders of any persuasion, and so the easy money you read about from trading books off of moving averages and other oscillators looking to capture momentum, are no longer valid. They belong in the pre-2016 market paradigm that is gone forever. LONG LIVE THE CENTRAL BANKS!

Uh oh … somebody call the authorities, the NDX100 is lower on the day … with the Dow30 blistering the buy stops to the upside and hitting a “recorder-er” new all-time high, and now selling off all the gain and then some since I got long to begin with, suddenly the Dow30 is over 70+ points off the high and only approximately 40 points from a new low; even the FWD demons would call that impressive, and if the low gets taken out cuz sanity & gravity returns to tech stocks selling at 200+ PE’s [or 200X sales cuz they got no earnings] in the NDX100, things have the potential to get a little messy in the next couple of hours. Of course, everything depends on whether or not the central banks are willing to pull their bids and let prices fall some; that only happens if they start getting hit on their bids by some institutions, and come to the conclusion they are being taken advantage of at the poker table. Sooner or later they will have no choice, but when you think you are invincible and have more hubris than brains, anything can and will happen with surprises in store for sure; it’s the law of unintended consequences at work pure and simple.

Maybe now, some of you newbies out there can understand why I get very nervous being long and prices aren’t “punching” through like I want; traders literally have zero time to make a decision … the other day I hit the high perfectly, not cuz I’m somehow the ‘smartest guy in the room”, but simply because I saw the spike and I know on the up spikes I have to sell … F-ing NOW!, if I want the best price from the LP with zero slippage … if I hesitate, I get mauled like a kitten in the dog pound … it’s the only way you can do it and not get completely screwed by the LP. And what looked like “sure fire” profits from being long, now looks like dog food with losses … such is the animal of trading, and it’s why you have to follow the plan and not go by “gut instincts”, and when it’s over easily living with the consequences no matter what. All easier said than done if you’ve been trading less than 5 years.

Now, the SP500 has come back some [up], but the Dow30 hasn’t; there are still traders stuck long from higher prices, and there limit sell orders overhang the market … there only hope is if the central banks come back in and adjust their bids higher; if they don’t, the longs are toast and the central planners know it. And since they hate all traders, I’d say right now they are going to let the longs get hung out to dry going into the close in less than 2 hours … that doesn’t automatically mean lower prices, simply not higher ones.

We’re about an hour and a half from the close, and somebody better get the life jackets ready on the “Minnow” cuz it looks like the boat is about to leak itself under the water; and now, going into the close, with a reversal of this magnitude, maybe we can get some real power lower. We’ll see, but the potential is there believe me.

New low just made @ 18:46; this is the first time in a very long while where we are seeing a new Dow30 low for the day after 2 P.M.; as long time readers / clients know, you don’t buy breaks after 2 P.M. if they are new lows for the day and/or the market is below the New York open. Today both conditions are met, and so the potential exists for some really nasty action on the downside should the central banks pull their bids and let prices adjust … not sayin’ they will, but if they do, any long position you might have on could be met very quickly with a waterfall down and subsequent stop out. So, one of my rules for trading is never to buy breaks after 2 P.M. … you do this and over time you save yourself plenty of heartache, over and above anything you expect to gain from the risk.

Really a rather disappointing trading day … after the new low, nothing really except a little chop; the FWD in full control for the second day in a row, and like I said yesterday, staying away from the “Flying Wedge of Death” is a top priority if you want to avoid stinging losses. Again, it looks like the close is going to be very close to where the Dow30 opened New York 6 ½ hours ago [maybe]. Central bank bids are back in place, and all that happened this afternoon is that the central banks messed with some longs who had to liquidate and suckered some new shorts into the market on the new low, and then showed back up to screw with everyone that took them on and decided it was a “good idea”. [Hint: It wasn’t, for either side; and quite frankly why I sat on my hands.] Now a light pop to the upside, just to show here before the close who is in charge and who controls the action … and don’t damn well forget it! The simple fact is … and they are letting everyone know it right now … is that they aren’t going to let prices go lower by any measure of significance.

The hype surrounding today didn’t meet the expectations of the news stories happening in real time. I’m somewhat irked the market decided to wait for my liquidation to blast off within seconds, but it is what it is and I’d do the same thing again if the circumstances warrant it. All-in-all a little profit for the day, but nothing like what I’m looking for; back at it tomorrow, and it’s Upward & Onward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Time for the beach! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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