“It looks like the Senate
Intelligence Committee is in session!”
Oh,
I can hardly wait … Senate Intelligence Committee [an oxymoron if there ever
was one] meets to pander to the cameras … nothing learned, nothing done … what
else is new from the world’s biggest collection of hypocrites and liars? … I’m
surprised they don’t have Senator uniforms, cuz they then could put all kinds
of medals on them and they could parade around like important Twits … “Oh wait … they do that now so what’s the
difference”?
Of
course, we also got the U.K. general elections, which after the most recent
terrorist attacks in Londonistan, makes you seriously wonder how anybody in
their right mind could vote for Labor, given the fact the Labor leader Corbyn
got spotted at a rally with Jihadi terrorists. I’m sure somewhere, Queen Victoria
is rolling her eyes and wondering how the Brits could go from world empire to
hapless third world Twits within a 100 years.
Which
brings me to Super Mario & the ECB; anybody but me notice a large bank
failure in the last 48 hours? “Everything
is F-ing Awesome Baby!” has spread to Europe; nothing is “news” unless the
central banks say it’s news, and also of course if the sycophants in the
financial MSM talk about it; which they won’t unless they get permission from
their handlers at the central bank. And what? … you thought only North Korea, Cuba,
& Venezuela had official “minders” that kept track of what you say and what
you write? Well, if you want a job in the news media, and if you want to keep
that job, and you want to be able to interview key players, and most
importantly you want a nice fat retirement someday when all the favors are
called in, you will STFU and do what you’re told. Just ask any of the “Journo’s”
at CNBC or Bloomberg.
When
it’s all said and done, the most likely scenario coming from the lips of the
financial press will be “Everything Is
F-ing Awesome Baby!”, and the various “FED Pie Hole Show Pony” types will
infect the airwaves on TV with the standard “Stalin 5-year plan is working”
mantra, and giddy lapdogs like Steve Liesman will eat it all up with a spoon
and concur … and this is what passes for financial news. “Remember, we have always been at war with East Asia, & chocolate
production is UP thanks to the brilliance of “Big Brother”; all animals on the
farm are equal, only some are more equal than others”!
Of
course, it’s easy to see when using this type of “logic”, why it’s necessary to
be long about 150% of the time; only question is when and from what level.
Twenty years ago you could have never survived with this kind of “mindset”, but
it’s the “Golden Age” of central banks, not twenty years ago, and they
completely run the show in more ways than one. The investing and trading public
has been so compliant in the transition I hardly noticed; and as long as the
main criminals infesting Wall Street [JPM, Squid, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Morgan
Stanley, etc.] get their “cut”, nodoby is gonna say nada, zip, zilch, or zero.
In
other news, in the other circus legislative branch, the House Oversight Committee
has issued a blistering report concluding that Holder & Obama obstructed
justice and flat out lied to the slain border patrol agents family, killed in
2010 by weapons OBAMA supplied to Mexican drug cartels. Below is the link if
you missed it.
“Oh wait … I forgot … it
doesn’t matter anymore … forget that a border patrol agent was killed; he’s
just a pawn and it doesn’t matter to the storytellers in D.C. … it’s not part
of the official narrative, that in progressive Amerika anything Obama touches
can’t be talked about cuz he’s black, and anything negative obviously means you’re
a racist; ditto for that scumbag Eric Holder, who you may remember helped Slick
Willy pardon Marc Rich for campaign cash back in the 90’s. But, unless you got
an “R” after your name, nothing matters anymore so it’s best to not rattle the
hornets nest … right”? And
besides, if it’s not positive for stocks, is it really news?
Turning
to today’s market … stocks higher in pre-market [of course they are, what else
is new?] … only question is Super Mario gonna say or do something stupid to
upset the apple cart at 8:30 & 8:45 [presser]? … he certainly is capable of
it. Nope, ECB panders to both the bulls
& the bears and says little; typical of a central banker.
Well,
institutional Chipmunks gotta be Chipmunks, so what else but a rally off of the
open a few points? Again, the “setup” for higher prices not looking very good at
the moment, cuz a new low and we’re off to the races yet again. Question is,
can a new low produce the kind of sell stop selling to below yesterday’s low
and 21100? For me, that’s the $64,000 question and the key to today’s action;
it’s way too soon of course to draw any conclusions, simply because we don’t
know what the central banks are gonna do with their collective bids. If they
start pulling them for a “correction”, where do they “draw the line” for the
decline and start aggressively bidding again? Somewhere below 21100 and we’ll
have the answer.
An
hour into this, and you can clearly see the FWD has once again appeared, and
the psychotic behavior the Dow30 is exhibiting versus the SP500. We’ve had 2
attempts at breaking out to a new high, and both times the market quickly
rejected the advance; is this from the central banks pulling their bids, or is
this somebody on the institution side hitting the bids and forcing them to
adjust their bids lower? In any event, a weaker SP500 could be the key to
seeing a very rapid selling spree in the Dow30, and sell stops being hit off
later. We will certainly see.
Here
a little after Noon in New York, nothing says stupidity [on my part, not the
market] better than 40 - 60 Dow30 points of buy stops getting clicked off right
after I liquidate a long position … some days you’re the pigeon [the other day
when I sold the high tick], and other days you’re the statute [today]. In any
event, the chart directly below with the day’s first trade and some comments.
While I lowered my volume cuz I didn’t get to buy it like I wanted, it also
meant I had no room for error when it wouldn’t move up … until that is when I
liquidated … seems I was holding the market down … and when the SP500 popped
some [not much really, only about 1 ½ index points which should equate with
about 15 Dow30 points, but instead produced about 60 Dow30 points], the Dow30
went nuts to the upside. “Excuse me while
I wipe pigeon goo off myself”!
And
so the stupidity rally continues unabated, just like I said yesterday it would
when the clown acts were finished for today… F-ing world could burn down and it
wouldn’t make any difference cuz central banks want and demand higher stock
prices, and by God we are gonna get ‘em no matter the news. Got it? Anything
& everything spun bullish for stocks. Now that the shorts have been taken
out back and shot in the head, of course prices go right back down in the
SP500, but remain elevated in the Dow30 … cuz “fun-durr-mentals”.
If
you’re following along at home and wondering why market “technicals” aren’t
working, just cast your eyes on the central banks. As I’ve stated before, it’s
a tough act judging when they place and adjust bids in key index component stocks;
they are going to be random, and they aren’t going to make much sense when you
look at a chart … again, everything before 2016, throw it away cuz it means
nothing anymore. Initially, I thought making a new high for the day would be
tough cuz the SP500 is a real laggard today versus the Dow30 … and while I
figured there were stops above the market, I’m surprised they were that big and
also the time when they got hit off … the manipulators could have gotten a much
bigger bang for the buck if they had waited to 2 – 2:30 P.M. before setting
them off … but hey … they’re manipulators not traders, and they have no
understanding of trader psychology and how it affects prices going into the close.
And
of course, since the buy stops got ran like the “Pampolona Bulls”, since then
there is nothing … if you got caught short in this massacre, you now are
staring at losses that can’t be made back cuz there is no intraday volatility
for you to trade, only sideways action that makes you shake your head in utter despair.
Welcome to manipulated markets, where if you don’t understand how to “manipulate
the manipulators” for your benefit, in essence you are SCREWED!
Again,
like yesterday, below is the SP500 M1 candlestick chart during the start of the
busiest time of day, and I ask; “when
everything is simply price points, and there is no trading, and prices jump
from one m1 to another with no trades, how the hell does anybody read the
market here for anything relating to momentum or market direction”?
There
isn’t anything you can tell me about the market from the above M1 … there isn’t
any information there. And the dirty little secret is, that over the last hour,
anybody buying the indices looking for that momentum to continue on the upside are
getting it shoved up where the sun doesn’t shine … so, first kill the shorts,
and then cripple the “Johnny come lately” long types looking for the MoMo play to
just keep going … well, it isn’t, cuz the 2nd dirty little secret is
the central banks don’t much like traders of any persuasion, and so the easy
money you read about from trading books off of moving averages and other
oscillators looking to capture momentum, are no longer valid. They belong in
the pre-2016 market paradigm that is gone forever. LONG LIVE THE CENTRAL BANKS!
Uh
oh … somebody call the authorities, the NDX100 is lower on the day … with the
Dow30 blistering the buy stops to the upside and hitting a “recorder-er” new
all-time high, and now selling off all the gain and then some since I got long
to begin with, suddenly the Dow30 is over 70+ points off the high and only
approximately 40 points from a new low; even the FWD demons would call that
impressive, and if the low gets taken out cuz sanity & gravity returns to
tech stocks selling at 200+ PE’s [or 200X sales cuz they got no earnings] in
the NDX100, things have the potential to get a little messy in the next couple
of hours. Of course, everything depends on whether or not the central banks are
willing to pull their bids and let prices fall some; that only happens if they
start getting hit on their bids by some institutions, and come to the
conclusion they are being taken advantage of at the poker table. Sooner or
later they will have no choice, but when you think you are invincible and have
more hubris than brains, anything can and will happen with surprises in store
for sure; it’s the law of unintended consequences at work pure and simple.
Maybe
now, some of you newbies out there can understand why I get very nervous being
long and prices aren’t “punching” through like I want; traders literally have
zero time to make a decision … the other day I hit the high perfectly, not cuz
I’m somehow the ‘smartest guy in the room”, but simply because I saw the spike
and I know on the up spikes I have to sell … F-ing NOW!, if I want the best
price from the LP with zero slippage … if I hesitate, I get mauled like a
kitten in the dog pound … it’s the only way you can do it and not get
completely screwed by the LP. And what looked like “sure fire” profits from
being long, now looks like dog food with losses … such is the animal of
trading, and it’s why you have to follow the plan and not go by “gut instincts”,
and when it’s over easily living with the consequences no matter what. All
easier said than done if you’ve been trading less than 5 years.
Now,
the SP500 has come back some [up], but the Dow30 hasn’t; there are still
traders stuck long from higher prices, and there limit sell orders overhang the
market … there only hope is if the central banks come back in and adjust their
bids higher; if they don’t, the longs are toast and the central planners know
it. And since they hate all traders, I’d say right now they are going to let
the longs get hung out to dry going into the close in less than 2 hours … that doesn’t
automatically mean lower prices, simply not higher ones.
We’re
about an hour and a half from the close, and somebody better get the
life jackets ready on the “Minnow” cuz it looks like the boat is about to leak
itself under the water; and now, going into the close, with a reversal of this
magnitude, maybe we can get some real power lower. We’ll see, but the potential
is there believe me.
New
low just made @ 18:46; this is the first time in a very long while where we are
seeing a new Dow30 low for the day after 2 P.M.; as long time readers / clients
know, you don’t buy breaks after 2 P.M. if they are new lows for the day and/or
the market is below the New York open. Today both conditions are met, and so
the potential exists for some really nasty action on the downside should the
central banks pull their bids and let prices adjust … not sayin’ they will, but
if they do, any long position you might have on could be met very quickly with
a waterfall down and subsequent stop out. So, one of my rules for trading is
never to buy breaks after 2 P.M. … you do this and over time you save yourself plenty
of heartache, over and above anything you expect to gain from the risk.
Really
a rather disappointing trading day … after the new low, nothing really except a
little chop; the FWD in full control for the second day in a row, and like I
said yesterday, staying away from the “Flying Wedge of Death” is a top priority
if you want to avoid stinging losses. Again, it looks like the close is going
to be very close to where the Dow30 opened New York 6 ½ hours ago [maybe].
Central bank bids are back in place, and all that happened this afternoon is
that the central banks messed with some longs who had to liquidate and suckered
some new shorts into the market on the new low, and then showed back up to
screw with everyone that took them on and decided it was a “good idea”. [Hint:
It wasn’t, for either side; and quite frankly why I sat on my hands.] Now a light
pop to the upside, just to show here before the close who is in charge and who
controls the action … and don’t damn well forget it! The simple fact is … and
they are letting everyone know it right now … is that they aren’t going to let
prices go lower by any measure of significance.
The
hype surrounding today didn’t meet the expectations of the news stories
happening in real time. I’m somewhat irked the market decided to wait for my
liquidation to blast off within seconds, but it is what it is and I’d do the
same thing again if the circumstances warrant it. All-in-all a little profit
for the day, but nothing like what I’m looking for; back at it tomorrow, and it’s
Upward & Onward!
PAMM
spreadsheet directly below.
Time
for the beach! … the dog and I are outta here … until tomorrow.
Have
a great day everybody!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM”
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