“I ask him where are my notes … he goes and gets ice cream!”
It’s so hard to find good help these days; I send the dog to get something … and he comes back with ice cream in his ears! It’s probably going to take me about 2 weeks from this weekend to get it done and published, but the outline for the version 4 volatility trading algorithm has been completed, and this weekend I’m going to start writing the text.
The reason it moves to version 4, is that in addition to everything that is in the current version, I’m adding significant new material to take advantage of what I call “The Central Bank Paradigm Shift”; make no mistake about it, this is the last trading paradigm shift we will ever see in MT4 electronic trading, up and until/when/if ever a complete revolution in Western democracies [if you can call them that] takes place and the central bank money cartel’s power & control over creating money via the CNTRL-P machine ends. Up until then, what we see now will be in place until Jesus returns … and I know some of you think I’m probably exaggerating a little here, but I can assure you I am not.
With that in mind, I’m literally required to adjust my approach and method to trading the stock indices [particularly the Dow30, which currently offers the best of 1) lowest “net cost” of doing business (spread + RT commission = 2.2 Dow30 index points), 2) best ranges (meaning higher), and 3) easiest market to escape the spread)] and to implement strategies that can consistently make money and slaughter the benchmark averages over time. All the old rules from “back-in-the-day” are toast; ditto the usefulness of any pre-2016 chart, econometric or financial, that attempts to extrapolate the past into the future; and most importantly, anything and everything emanating from the financial MSM [Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business News, etc.] and/or the FED is completely useless and counter-productive. It’s important to note, however, that the current M1 signals [when they occur] are still operative and effective; the problem isn’t one of effectiveness, but of daily frequency. In the new era we find ourselves in, the central bank planners and manipulators don’t have much use for charts; all they watch is “order flow”, which we have no handle on, and their manipulations destroys the natural order of things as regards to market psychology in a free trading market. Make no mistake, they favor neither longs or shorts, and simply hate retail spec trading accounts with a passion; their goal isn’t to make you money, it’s to 1) punish those that attempt to push the indices lower, and 2) maintain steady upwards price gains into the future cuz their money masters demand it. Because of this, normal market psychology is distorted, and we aren’t getting M1 signals nearly as often as in the past … exactly the way they want it. Everything must appear random and without meaning to be useful and to deflect attention away from their manipulations.
As I will lay out in the new manual, I start out by showing you proof of the manipulations and offer concrete evidence. Of course, it’s circumstantial, since nobody at the FED is gonna send me an email and say, “hey, you got us figured out … congrats!”, but all price action makes perfect sense when seen in the larger scope of the premise that I lay out before you; not simply in the stock indices, but in everything else as well. The simple fact is, the stock indices are the primary beneficiary of central bank manipulation [along with Treasuries of course, but you don’t see U.S. Treasury CFD’s offered for trading] and are the easiest of markets to take advantage in a relative sense.
It’s important for me to do this, cuz you need to be convinced I’m right on the money with my analysis … not simply for the satisfaction of “figuring it out”, but for the necessity of you to know the truth so that you can make money; cuz if you don’t believe it, you won’t follow it, and you won’t make money trading your own stuff. Trust me, nobody knows how hard it is to follow an algorithm or trading method more than me; I’ve detailed on the blog before my struggles at the beginning of my career to follow “the plan” and not resort to my brain or gut feelings, and how it took me a full 3 months to “get my bat excrement together” or go out into the “Pudding Business”. So, I lay out the rationale for the manipulation to better educate you and give you some kind of foundation upon which to trade your own account.
It’s going to be a lengthy introduction, filled with a lot of new material you’ve never seen before or even thought about, but I will attempt to “link it all” in a coherent manner and prove my point that the U.S. 3 major stock indices [SP500, Dow30, & NDX100] will never be allowed to go significantly lower again [more than 3% - 5%] WITHOUT explicit permission from the FED. Of course, “never” is a long time, and especially the risk of geo-political events makes the probability of “surprise” moves down linked to nuclear war, political assassinations, and/or major epidemics are something the FED and the rest of their merry band of central bank followers will have to deal with, but their modus operandi isn’t to “soak up” selling, it’s to let you sell and then punish the living bat excrement out of you by bidding it back up after you’re done, and in the process making you look and feel like a complete idiot.
After the introduction, I will get into the “specifics” of some new rules and trading procedures, which if followed, are profitable damn near 100% of the time; and, I’ll include many more recent examples than in past manuals to make my point, and thus give you the exact blueprint for profits.
As in every mathematical and/or trading system, there must always be inherent limitations; i.e., where does it fail and how would that happen, and more importantly [which I nor anybody else can know] what is it I don’t know that I need to know, in order to avoid situational losses? “Well, if I knew that, I wouldn’t need to ask the question, but it’s always something that you don’t know that has the potential to ruin the party”. False logic will tell you there’s nothing wrong with buying a “7 sigma” [7 standard deviation] event on the downside cuz it almost never happens; reality will then tell you that you were an idiot buying there cuz on it’s way down “36 sigma” [crash of ‘87] you made the mistake of thinking you knew where it had to stop, and that’s where you went wrong and then got buried. As best as I can tell, there is only 1 market event that can lead to losses, and at this point it is theoretical in nature and not practical; that doesn’t mean it can’t become practical and happen, it simply means it isn’t now.
I’ll wrap the whole thing up with some conclusions and observations about retail spec trading habits and how best to prepare to implement the algorithm. More than ever before, it takes discipline & patience to consistently win in trading, and since everybody can get these for free if they want them, it then boils down to trading the very best market for profit with every “home field” advantage you can get for yourself. In today’s trading environment, that’s the stock indices; nothing else even come close.
So, look for it in about 2 weeks [3 weekends from now] … I’ll post about my progress and then announce when it will be available for online viewing and/or download in PDF from a link over in “Download Links” section of the website [right hand column], from my shared files section at box.com. As always, it’s free to everybody … you don’t need to be a PAMM client … simply an interested reader or visitor to the website who wants quality research and/or trading direction from a professional trader over many decades.
Turning to today’s market … options expiration on the open with more than $1 trillion in SP500 & NDX100 options expiring at the CME … explains the very tight and slow day so far to the open … expect some crazy price action ± 15 minutes from the open at 9:30; after that, who knows cuz it’s a Friday.
Options expiration a complete dud … Amazon buying out Whole Foods has caused carnage in the food sector … thought early on we could see prices below 21300 in the Dow30, but despite all the selling, here we are at NOON NY time at 21380’ish on the Dow30 … Plunge Protection Team busy at work in everything … stocks must never be allowed to go lower.
First trade of the day, and I bought 57 and then exactly … and I mean exactly … as the Dow up ticked from 21361 to 21363 [which was @ 13:54:16] I hit the close position button … AND GOT F-ING FILLED @ 21356 … to say I’m a little “hot under the collar” about this is an understatement … and believe me, Turnkey at every management level has heard from me today … 7 point slippage on the downside as the market ticks up 2 points to its high … somebody tell or explain to me how the hell this happens if the LP isn’t a complete crook [which, of course they are]? … the high bid for the 13:54 M1 according to the MT4 Turnkey server is 21363 and the low for the minute is 21356 … so, 14 seconds into the minute with the bid price sitting on the high bid, I get filed at the low bid for the minute with 44 seconds to go until a new M1 … that means the crooked, thieving LP had plenty of time to get out of, or hedge, the bullshit price to us in the PAMM and make more money for themselves at our expense … and so, I guess that also means that these scumbag LP’s are in fact not utilizing ECN / STP processing but trading against customer accounts with their own proprietary account? … Isn’t this what FXCM was busted for in FX a couple of months ago and banned from the business?
I have plenty of questions for Turnkey that I have already expressed with emails to management as well as chat conversations; of course, it’s Friday, and nobody anywhere [brokerage house and/or bank] wants to deal with it, so it has to wait for next week, but trust me, I’m not letting go of this because the stench of this is way, way too strong for me to handle. As I have said repeatedly in the past, the brokerage house community and especially the LP banks view your money as “Muppet money”, and theirs for the taking when they can get away with it. I’m not trying to be a whiny little trading bitch who complains about every single fill, but today’s thievery crosses the line, and I’m not going to stand for it. I want to know who the LP was, and if something isn’t done, I’m considering lodging a formal complaint with the appropriate regulator.
What they did with this first trade is no different than me going into a 7-11 and some guy puts a gun in my face and says, “Gimme the money in your pocket, NOW”!, and I give him $70 that I had, and he then turns around and walks out the door. That’s the feeling I got in my gut right now … of having been robbed for no particularly good reason whatsoever by a scumbag POS.
Second trade was a scalp also, and made back the loss plus commissions lost to the LP thieves in the first trade. Seriously folks, this pisses me off greatly, cuz I did everything right … sold the spike up on the high; not 1 second after the high, but instantly [like 1/10th of a second] cuz I had everything ready to go to liquidate with my finger on the mouse when the uptick occurred… and then to get a 56 fill? … excuse me while I hit something [pit trader feelings coming back into me, and I don’t really want them back]. And simply as an aside, because most likely the LP in the Dow30 is the same one in the SP500, the spread today in the SP500 at Turnkey raised by 33% for no damn reason other than dealer greed; it has gone from 0.3 to 0.4, and I guess you aren’t supposed to notice your cost to trade just went up. They think you are simply idiots folks … truly … that you won’t notice or care, and that we’re just supposed to STFU and eat the bat excrement sandwich every time they serve it up. This kind of crap is why I trade the Dow30 over the SP500, where truth be told the spread should always be 0.3 index points with no commissions, and while I’m not going to war over $2 / 100,000 notional value for a RT commission, that’s what it should be but isn’t; so, when they raise it 33% for no reason and simply keep it there, WHY SHOULD ANYBODY TRUST THEM? WHY?
Looking at the trading action today [minus the thieving of the scumbag LP banks], once again it’s the same old story; everything anybody throws at this market gets gobbled up and prices go higher, whether it’s a glacial drift up or spiking M1’s. Again today, the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] comes into play with the 1) open near the high, 2) go to a low, rally hard, 3) go to another low, and then 4) rally up near the high. How many days in a row have we seen this type of unusual trading action; and in the past how frequent was this?
Well, as I’ve said before, the past doesn’t matter anymore, cuz all that matters now is that the central banks control the show, and they don’t particularly care for charts, ranges, or anything else except order flow; and when the selling from anywhere dries up, they come in and bid the shit out of everything and it goes right back up. In the past FWD’s were very rare in the stock indices; maybe a few times a year … maybe. We’ve seen them almost every day the last 2 weeks … how do you explain this without central bank intervention and/or manipulation?
What has really annoyed me more than anything these past weeks, is the fact that the New York cash session for the Dow30 has become nothing more than a price protection scheme for price movements that happen overnight when everybody is asleep in the U.S. or Caribbean; ranges in the New York session have become ridiculously small, anywhere from 30 -60 points and that’s it. Hell, pre-2016 when the Dow was 5,000 points LOWER, the index had weeks where it would go ± 1,000 points and nobody got their “big girl panties” bunched up at all. Now, the Dow30 isn’t even allowed by its money master central banks to go 100 lower without the Plunge Protection Team showing up and making a spectacle of ramping the market up on spikes to teach the shorts a “lesson”. WTF! And as we all know, get on the wrong side of one of these moves, and it could be “one & done” for the day since nothing happens for approximately 75% of the day … it’s an insult to “chop” for cryin’ out loud.
Here, with about 2 ½ hours to go to the close, after the shorts have been buried again for the umpteenth millionth time in the last few months [seriously, are there any shorts left who still have money to trade?] on a couple of blasts off the low earlier all the way up to 21397, some drifting lower price action has set in and we now see the market around the 21365 - 70 area. Really, the Dow30 may just … are you ready for this? … may just close lower today!! OMG! Somebody call 911 and have this reported.
All-in-all, a disappointing day made worse by Turnkey’s LP bank in the Dow30, who apparently thought we needed non-consensual sex at about 10 A.M. this morning, and we had to pay for it. “Yea, it’s what they do … it’s who they are … and we aren’t the only ones they’re doing it to either”. Once we got that burst off the bottom, there weren’t but a few trades worth taking, and I ended up with very minimal gain for the effort, but at least it was profitable. As I stated earlier, everything is compounded by a lack of decent daily New York session ranges [not the daily range]; today in the Dow30 about 70 points, but it’s open at a high, go to a new low, then to a new session high, then back to the middle, type of trading scenario [in other words, the FWD in all its glory]. And what these very tight ranges mean, of course, is that your “trading room” for error just got way smaller, and that has the effect of chopping you up into pieces. And, of course, just to prove my point, here at the close a “vapors” ramp up to the low 90’s to close the Dow30 green, cuz as we all know, if the Dow30 is anywhere near unchanged on the day [like 50 points or less], the manipulators will ramp it on the close. What more evidence do you need than what we’ve witnessed this week?
As we move to the close of another week of trading, I hope everybody can see the blatant manipulation taking place in U.S. asset markets, especially bonds and the stock indices. We can’t trade U.S. Treasuries, cuz no offshore brokerage house that accepts U.S. clients has them in CFD format; that would simply piss off the CME and start a firestorm with the Treasury Dept., and we can’t have that. And while the NDX100 has taken on some heartburn & indigestion, the SP500 and the Dow30 remain firmly on their upward trajectories; what it’s gonna take to get them lower I have no idea, but as we have seen this week, every single time without fail the market goes down an inch, central banks and the PPT are there to end it and force prices higher. It’s the new paradigm; the “Central Bank Trading Paradigm”, and the new manual coming up here shortly is going to tell you how to trade it for MAX profit.
The evidence is abundantly clear for everybody to see, and I will admit the new rules for buying and liquidating will be hard to implement for some people cuz their guts will be screaming “NO” at the exact moment the truth of the matter is “YES”. But, it’s simply what you have to do to be consistently profitable. In the PAMM trading, I will implement the new algorithm starting Monday, June 19, even though you won’t get a copy of it until finished; you will see higher volumes and more trading along with better consistent profitability. Outside of what’s in the current version, there are other buy criteria to take advantage in the Dow30. I’ve seen enough evidence over the last month or two to convince me it’s the proper way to trade and make money every day given the new paradigm we find ourselves in whether we like it or not.
Seriously, I don’t think I’ll ever have to write another manual cuz I don’t see central banks giving up control of asset markets worldwide anytime soon; why would they, they got all the power and money, so who’s gonna stop them? My intent, here at the start, is to be as thorough with charts and examples as I can possibly be without over doing it so people get bored, and to that end the manual may be quite a few pages in length. But, not to worry, cuz I will include a short one page printable summary that you can use to make things easy. Within a couple of days you won’t even need it if you trade your own account, it’s that easy. I really think you are going to like it. Onward & Upward my fellow travelers!
PAMM spreadsheet directly below.
Beach in 10 minutes, if the dog can get his face out of the ice cream box which he is convinced has more in there somewhere … we are so outta here … until Monday.
Have a great weekend everybody!
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