I thought yesterday was ridiculous … it pales in comparison to today … once
again, bombs drop, markets go “speed of light”, and the Asian session
dominates, as Kuroda raises the ceiling on YEN Yield Curve control, and the
10 YR. JGB has a new limit of 0.50%, up from 0.25% … cue the broken record
… “WTF, do I have to move to frickin’ Thailand to get some decent trading
action?” … once a rhetorical question, now not so much.
So the YEN flies, people’s accounts die, the EURUSD is dead, Cable moving
some but not that well, just another bank scam, and the “Stock Bellies”
wondering where the bottom is … 2023 not looking so hot once we get there
… ranges suck, trading action is worse than bad, and then we got “Slippage
FX” [Coinexx + Turnkey] handing out bullshit off the market fills in FX that
would make Vito Corleone blush … quite frankly, I can’t take this horseshit in
FX from these Asshats any longer.
Quite frankly, there are only 2 markets worth trading, and it just depends on your
priorities, and whether you prefer cash settled or an actual phyz market … that
would be the DOW30 and.or crude oil [WTI and/or Brent, it makes very little
difference … little bit more liquidity in WTI] … they are the only 2 that have
enough CONSISTENT VIX for the trading algorithm … everything else is “hit or
miss”, where some days [few and far between] it’s OK, but mostly it isn’t good
enough, and leads to much higher false positives, and therefore losses on
trades … sadly FX falls into this space, and what we’ve seen these last months
is disappointing given the news flow … only USDJPY really moves but it has
problems with spikes and stops.
We’re close enough to the start of 2023, and I’m gonna transition NOW over to
crude oil … granted, things may or may not be slow until January comes, but who
cares, anything is better than the slop of FX and the bullshit there … if crude
stays subdued during the Holiday period, then so be it … as long as “SLIPPAGE
FX” KEEPS THE SPREAD REASONABLE [a big “if”], we’ll be OK, as the ratio of
the spread to the 20 Day Range MA stays right around 1%, give or take
depending … that’s in line with all the other markets, so it isn’t as bad as it seems
… in addition, the spread in the futures market isn’t 1 cent most of the time, it
varies usually between 2 - 3 cents … quite frankly, if crude dies and slows down,
I don’t even care anymore … it won’t of course, so I don’t think there’s much
chance it slows to the level of FX, or any other market … given the level of
trading in crude, where a 1 lot volume = 1,000 barrels, this market is much better
than the DOW30 when it comes to volumes & liquidity … and if you look at the
past 2 years of crude trading, it is by far the best market to trade and the
most volatile.
A lot of water has gone under the bridge when it comes to crude trading … quite
frankly, I feel like I’ve missed the boat, sticking with markets that are shit in terms
of VIX compared to crude … that’s my fault … not any longer, as I’m gonna stick
with crude going forward, cuz I know it’s the place to be versus other markets
… multiple trades today for the PAMM in Cable … PAMM DOWN A LITTLE MORE
THAN 0.2% … FX just won’t go … and then reverses with a vengeance on spikes
… add in horrendous fills, and while it would be nice to compliment “SLIPPAGE
FX”, that’s gonna happen only about once in a “blue moon” … and while I’m a
little pissed off at myself for wandering into Cable today on bullshit conditions,
why should I be surprised that false positives are sharply higher on these
conditions? … stupid, just plain stupid … I’ll be hitting crude hard, doing higher
volumes and not necessarily scalping it, but attempting to give it more time on
positions when appropriate … we should do very well, and I very much want to
get away from this “up slightly, down slightly” bullshit … full speed ahead in
crude!
A somewhat subdued crude trade today, as we find ourselves in the second day
in a row of inside days on the daily chart … breakouts very much in play in crude,
and something to pay attention to, more so than other markets … the downtrend
in crude still very much in play on weakening demand … but supplies are very
tight, so it’s a dynamic situation that changes often … price needs to vault past
78 and then 83 to establish a good uptrend … $70 looks like solid support, but if
broken, there will be long liquidations.
Time to make money … onto tomorrow!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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