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Monday, August 7, 2017


“Dude … like Whoa! … WTF is goin’ on man?”

“Suck everybody in, then kill ‘em … rinse, repeat … mission accomplished.” This seems to be the current “mantra” every market faces [except of course the Dow30 & SP500, which have their very own “manipulative mantra” of only being allowed to go up], and explains the worst trading conditions I’ve ever seen in the trading business … “the Golden Rule firmly in place”.

And that rule is simple: “them that has the gold makes the rules”. Doesn’t matter the market, if you got the money to shove it around, you’re going to … why? … cuz the central bankers encourage large TBTF banks [think JPM, Citi, Squid, etc.] to “run the show” with no ramifications for criminal behavior … if they get caught, they offer up some “sacrificial lamb” from a junior trading desk, get fined “paper clip” money, biz as usual is preserved and protected, and go hire the next sap for the next future fall from grace; all the while the “connected” folks behind the curtain remain firmly in place with their “shocked” denials. Pick the market; gold, silver, oil, grains, FX, and the lesser stock indices in Europe, it makes no difference, cuz they are all being actively manipulated by the large banks trading desks.

Am I the only one to notice, that outside the machinations of the Dow30 & SP500, there isn’t … and hasn’t been for a while … any market that has “legs” for either bulls or bears? If there is, name one, cuz I don’t see it … certainly in the other major markets there is only one thing present … “CHOP”, and plenty of it … which begs another question, “who benefits from chop”? EASY PEEZEE Skippy, the damn TBTF banks, which just happen to be out friends the LP’s [Liquidity Providers]. If you’re a gold trader, or grains trader, energy trader, throw in livestock as well, I don’t know how you make a living trading these markets; you risk tons and receive ounces. What sense does this make?

Which begs the question; “Is American “big money”, having been slapped around by the central bank manipulators who won’t let them have their way with stops and other chicanery in the Dow30 & SP500, moved their money offshore and are now at play in markets like the DAX30”? Cuz seriously, how much would it take to shove the DAX30 up 50 points or so, fill the buy stops by selling everything you can get your hands on, and then run it the other way into sell stops later? Would $100 million do the trick? Based on volume & open interest figures from EUREX, for the DAX30 futures contract, I’d have to say “yes” it can be done, and rather easily. EXIT QUESTION: “If it could be determined it was being done, would the German regulators do anything about it, or simply take the usual money under the table to STFU and go watch porn on their office computers”? Cuz with the entire world on fire, markets should be jumping up/down everywhere … and they most definitely are not … volatility in almost everything at the lower boundaries of sanity.

As most all of you know, I’m working on the “Version 4 Volatility Algorithm”, and spending most of my free time over the weekend working on it; it’s voluminous and packed full of examples … by no means is the “Quick Guide” the whole “enchilada” … which got me to thinking Saturday night as I’m feeding the “Ice Cream King” his daily allotment of about a pound of soft serve vanilla from DQ [made with yogurt so it’s “healthy” … yea, right.] … why not break up the manual for the 3 markets into their own individual manuals specific to that market? This way, you can read the one [or all] you’re interested in, and don’t have to slog through the rest for nothing.

So, after thinking about it yesterday, I’ve decided to do it that way cuz it makes the most sense, and each manual can focus on that particular market with rules and examples. Having said that, the first one due here shortly will be the DAX30 manual, followed by the “Anti-DAX30” [a/k/a EURJPY], and then the Dow30.

Turning to today’s markets … Dow30 slightly higher, so what else is new? … the DAX30 on a “yo-yo”, hammering people unmercifully on either side of 12300 & 12100 for the last few weeks, and EURJPY not doing much of anything after Friday’s sell stop bloodbath in EURUSD. What concerns me now, with the entire trading world totally oblivious, asleep at the switch, and basically unconcerned is the Dow30 and what will [not if] happen to other markets when the proverbial rug is pulled out from underneath price and way too many people hit the “exit gate” at the same time … don’t kid yourself, it’s gonna happen, and the $64,000 question is how does the DAX30 react? … what about EURJPY? … and more importantly, where’s the bottom for the stop selling, and is it confined to one wave or are there more after the first wave? “Right now, with things awfully quiet [too quiet], if you get this “wrong”, you gonna have a severe case of butthurt”!

About 90 minutes into this total clusterfark Monday, and we got the DAX30 going in the same direction as EURJPY, with the same “fun & games” you’d expect via stop hunts that go nowhere. EURJPY with a very small range, the DAX30 with a moderate range based on the weekly numbers, however the DAX30 trading like a psychotic teenager; and what I mean by that are the spikes [up & down] that come out of nowhere … take stops out … and then turn around with a vengeance the other way and do it to the other side … then it’s back to the middle … sound familiar, cuz outside of a day or two these last weeks, that’s all we are being fed for the moment. The Dow30 for its part? Sick and getting sicker by the day … really unbelievable what is happening to U.S. markets, cuz they are being starved to death. Is the VIX at 3 yet?

You want to see what the future holds for U.S. markets, if the idiot Twits at the FED don’t stop the manipulations and let this stuff breath? Directly below the WEEKLY ... YES, WEEKLY chart of the Nikkei 225; take a look at “now” versus the past. The BOJ now owns over 50% of all shares outstanding in Japan … you think they are going to suddenly “let go”?

“This is what you get with blatant, overt, & systemic manipulation!”

And now that Europe is closing in the DAX30 cash market, here at 11:30, throw in a small stop hunt on the upside for “giggles” … and the beat goes on, with reversals, “Flying Wedges of Death” [FWD], doji’s, and general “Golden Rule” trading. Where do I sign up to get a piece of this action? Oh, and in case nobody noticed, gold [XAUUSD] has an approximate $3.30 range today. Wait … what? That’s right, the central planners have absolutely ruined the gold market to a complete shell of its former trading self; 5 years ago COMEX futures in gold traded upwards of 500,000 contracts a day, with some days seeing spikes up to and exceeding a million contracts. Today? Try 100,000 and change … this is what happens when markets are manipulated. So, is the world a better place thanks to the manipulators?

Here in mid-afternoon, and ranges in pretty much everything except the DAX30, on the very tight side; and what that means, is that any little squiggle can set stops off as we attempt to go either to a high or a low … and it’s a total crapshoot as to whether it can go through … we’ve made several attempts at both the high and low in EURJPY, the market holding a very tight 20 – 25 PIP range since the European open 7 – 8 hours ago. As for the U.S. markets, let me just say that the SP500 had bigger index point ranges when it was trading in the 200’s, some 30 years ago, than it does today 12X higher in price!! … if that doesn’t convince you how pitiful things have become, nothing ever will.

For those of you “new” to financial trading; I’m talking about less than 5 – 7 years of trading experience, and no just because you hear the DJIA closing bell price on the radio doesn’t make you a trader with experience. But for those lacking in trading experience, it’s difficult some days for me to express the financial trading scene from my eyes to you; it’s difficult to translate just how BAD trading conditions have deteriorated into from as little as 2 years ago. Remember that weekly chart above from Japan? Go ask anybody who still attempts to trade the Nikkei 222 how it’s going … if you can find anybody, that is. There is no point in trading a market that won’t / can’t move, but I can predict with confidence how it ends, and whenever that date in the future is, hide the kids cuz it won’t be pretty. And then suddenly everybody wakes up and asks the same question; “how come I didn’t sell when I had the chance”? Cuz what it’s goin’ to boil down to, is one of my axioms of trading you can take to the bank and deposit; “he who panics first gets to panic again later”!

With an hour to go to the close … and I’ll never get this exciting hour back in my life … there isn’t anything to do but simply wait; none of the 3 markets really did anything, although the DAX30 put in a somewhat normal range at about 115 points. When it was rallying to the high, I kept waiting for EURJPY to break [it didn’t]; when it started making new lows, I kept waiting for EURJPY to rally [it didn’t] … and what all of this told me was, there’s a very high probability nothing is going to last; not up or down, cuz when you got a day that sees EURJPY have only a 20 – 25 PIP range, it literally means everything is on a raft out on the ocean drifting. Over the last couple of weeks, the DAX30 has gone nowhere … we’re gonna close today at almost the exact same price as on July 24th … since then, it’s been nothing but a very nasty trap to any trader holding any position for longer than about 10 minutes … as I said before, FWD’s, doji’s, reversals, stop hunts up and down at the speed of light, and yet, where are we? I’ll tell you where we’re at; “we’re at the corner of “screw you” & “thanks for donating Chump” if you’ve been actively trading the DAX30 looking for any breakout. Every day is a treacherous reversal at the speed of light … sometimes two, three, or even four trips in the FWD before it’s over … in other words, nothing can be sustained that anybody can hang their hat on for a position, with any degree of confidence greater than a coin flip. Sure, the algorithm has had a couple of scalps that could have gotten us a few points today … if I was quick, got good prices & suffered no significant slippage … on the other side is much higher risk, an LP that wants to hand out slippage, and a market that wants you to buy on the way up and sell on the way down to feed the system its meat … sorry, we ain’t gonna do that Mr. Market”.

Just a few minutes to the close, and I honestly can’t remember a worse trading day spread over all markets.  No trades today, obviously, and all I [we] can do is wait for tomorrow. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

“I gave the market a few minutes … here’s my response!”

Well, now that the dog is up … we’re outta here to the beach … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!



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