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Tuesday, August 1, 2017

GROUNDHOG DAY

“Don’t trade angry!”

The alarm goes off … I get up and look out the window … yup, the ocean is still there; yup, the faithful dog is here; of course, the lovely & gracious Mrs. slumbering peacefully, and more “yup”, I turn on the computer and see the Dow30 is up 50 – 100 points on “vapors” yet again … I am trapped inside the same trading day, helpless to escape. And the manipulators continue with the “on again” / “off again” ramping of prices while nobody is around … any bets on what this day is gonna look like almost 100 higher on the New York open in 4 hours? Anybody wanna bet it won’t be a total piece of up/down garbage, with ± 15 points after the first 20 minutes or so, with mindless drifting action that could only be more pleasant if you traded while visiting the DMV for renewal. And that 15 points? Yea,, think 10 if you’re lucky.

In my dreams, all I could see was the recruiter for the circus … begging me to apply, where I could be a groomer for the “bearded lady”, a clown [which by the way, every member of my family says I am eminently qualified and would give a solid recommendation if asked], and/or shovel some unwanted products in the engineering maintenance department [is math required?].

 “Trader? … No man, we ain’t got no room for stinkin’ traders!”

But alas, I wake up in a cold sweat, rejected … cuz apparently, they need someone with higher qualifications to shovel elephant dung than a “trader”. Well, I suddenly realize down at the end of the bed sits “The Ice Cream King”, and he’s givin’ me looks and thoughts … “don’t even think about takin’ that stupid job … I need you here to service my desires in ice cream, bacon, & deli meats … got it”? … And I find myself just sittin’ there, nodding my head in agreement like a total doofus. Then I get up and see the Dow30 and again want to scream … “if a trader screams in an empty trading pit, and nobody is there, can he get a fill”? … I dunno, but I do know this: this manipulative BS is killing the U.S. financial system … you won’t hear people bitch & moan while their 401(k)’s and/or portfolios go ever higher, but when the inevitable crash comes … it will be a wailing & gnashing of teeth, and you can place the blame squarely at the feet of the FED, who by the way will look to blame anybody and everybody else they can.

Meanwhile, the U.S. financial system “melts”; losing trading, clearing, innovation, job talent, and just about everything else to overseas ventures and places; and why not, what’s in the U.S. besides the highest taxes in the world, burdensome regulations, a hostile regulatory environment, and a nuclear toxic federal government where everybody is simply an un-indicted felon for the moment. “Show me a man, and I’ll find some crime”! If things don’t improve soon, within 5 – 10 years, you won’t even recognize the landscape you’ve wandered into and wished you hadn’t.

Turning to today’s trading … if I hear this “strong earnings” BS anymore from the “talking heads”, my head is gonna explode … “how f-ing hard is it to have strong EPS, when you keep buying back your own stock and cutting the float of shares? Unless your company is literally going bankrupt, EPS must grow, despite the shit conditions for employees, and in most cases your revenues and sales figures stink. So, forgive me if I’m not a corporate America cheerleader”. When do U.S. equity markets escape from this trading nightmare of government corruption, malfeasance, and manipulation?

Meanwhile, today the DAX30 has taken on the personality of a teenager on meth … one day you can’t get an uptick to save your life, and the next [today] it’s a 100% complete reversal, where down ticks and corrections are very rare indeed … and “out-of-the-blue”, here goes the DAX30 on a 200 point romp, all the while the EURUSD is in the midst of one of its lowest daily ranges of the last few months, with a 35 PIP range [eventually about 50] “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], which apparently stock index traders in Germany and the EU in general think means the Euro run is over, at least for now … really? Why? The last week especially, the DAX30 has been correlating almost tick-for-tick with EURUSD, with every uptick correlating into the DAX30 going down … not today.

But as I have said repeatedly on the blog posts, stock indices have a way of making you think there is never gonna be another uptick [yesterday] on its waterfall drop below 12100, and today it makes you think there isn’t ever gonna be another down tick on its killer [to the shorts] run higher, taking out buy stops with abandon and filling them 20 – 30 points higher. And in the midst of all this, your feelings on a “yo-yo” rollercoaster.

A couple of really good algorithm signals in the DAX30 today … one thing I wanted to bring up yesterday but forgot … the reason I am now posting DAX30 “Average Daily Range for the Week” and “Average Median” on Sunday night, good for every day of the upcoming week, is that these are the most probable ranges for the upcoming Monday through Friday trading sessions. They are an important guide so you can make intelligent decisions away from the market about how likely a market may move on any given day. For example, if the weekly average is 120 and the Median is 115, that’s close enough that you know there isn’t a big outlier in the data “skewing” the data. So, when you are looking to make an algorithm trade, if the day’s range is 125, you may want a perfect setup, cuz the data says it most likely has no place to go and expand the range for the day. However, if you get the same signal and the day’s range is 65, you can figure on either a loss or good winning trade as the range expands. This is how I use the data, and for every one time you’re wrong and the market blows up 200+ points [like today], there are 20 other trading days where this calculation saved you from doing “stupid shit” and getting disappointed in the fact the day’s range couldn’t expand.

Here in early afternoon, again I don’t have words for the action in the Dow30 & SP500 it is so bad … after what used to be called a “normal opening”, both have died on the vine and are limping along comatose to the rest of the world. Even the slightest tiniest dips are being bought aggressively [10 – 20+ points], making it very difficult to be in the market with everybody else, and then fighting for some kind of decent fill on the way out. I don’t see how this can continue without a very bad ending; one that comes suddenly and without warning and hurts many a trader. As I’ve said on numerous occasions, it’s so bad in the Dow30, that the DAX30 cash market, when it’s closed in Germany [11:30 A.M. in New York], but the CFD’s still trade cuz the stocks trade OTC and/or in New York… it has more activity, larger ranges, and a tighter spread than the Dow30 when it’s open. Truly pathetic, and today is no different.

Early on, the action in the DAX30 was very chaotic … I mean, it was moving rapidly all over the place. With the market correlating closely with the EURUSD in European trading, it didn’t appear there was much of a trend that was going to develop … all previous attempts at a rally yesterday met with very tough conditions and rapid price declines … today, though, somebody got “spooked” and started pushing the buy button in earnest, cuz when we took off, the market never looked back … 2nd day in a row, where the train left the station quickly and left most behind on the platform. But, 2 trades today in the DAX30, both scalps, as what looked good when the algo signal was given, didn’t look so hot minutes later when I had the chance to liquidate with profit. In hindsight, I should have seen the deteriorating correlation between the EURUSD & the DAX30, and when the Euro rallied and the DAX30 didn’t break, that was the overriding clue to get long and stay long … “it’s the dog … yea, I’m blaming him when I woke up from my circus dream and he’s given me smack … that’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it”!

Here in the last hour until New York closes, I’m trying to figure what the difference would be if it never opened … it’s simply a “protect & defend” operation for the manipulators anyway, so what’s the point? Outside the open, when the Chipmunks got to be fed, there isn’t any trading, any range, any movement … all it does is sit and stare at you on the screen and laugh at you for being here. Better yet, just let government price things … they’re doin’ it now, so what would the difference be if it was out in the open? Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


“Wait … what? …  I’m supposed to get you and your date drinks? … Sure thing Ice Cream King, and Daisy, you are looking marvelous!”

No beach today, as I’m chaperoning the dog and his date above … give him an inch, and he takes a mile …  I’m so outta here … until tomorrow.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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