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Friday, August 4, 2017

FX BULLS GET CRUSHED

“A synopsis of FX through the day!”

Well, that escalated quickly didn’t it … amazing what 26,000 part time, excess over consensus, jobs can do to a $7 trillion dollar a day FX market when “the trade” is caught flat-footed the wrong way and traders hit the exit gates at the same time.

Nonetheless, the DAX30 today never going below the M1 “Kumo Cloud” from the time of the NFP report until 13 minutes before the close of cash trading; an almost full  3 hours … unbelievable really, especially for a market that has been so adept at running stops on both sides lately.

The Dow30 & SP500 are nothing less than a trading joke at the moment . Today of all days, where FX and everything else is flying around and putting in some big moves, these two simply sit … no up, no down, and from about 20 minutes after the open in New York, you’re lucky if you can get the Dow30 outside of the spread … and then BOOM!! Down 30 points in 1 minute, and then manipulators come in and it’s been a manipulative drift up since then … totally pathetic … things need to change here if the FED’s want this market to stay alive, cuz the way things are going, these 2 equity markets are losing traders to foreign markets because they won’t trade … there’s only risk, with no reward, and who’s gonna accept that?

Turning to the “Anti-DAX30” market [a/k/a EURJPY], what a stop run that saw the EURUSD get creamed, and USDJPY skyrocket, and of course saw EURJPY go down. Two charts below of the action from approximately 9:00 A.M. NY time [13:00 server time] to about 15:00 for chart 1, and the second chart goes from about 15:00 to roughly 16:30. These 3 ½ hours basically condensed the entire day thanks to the NFP … trading up to then had been dormant. Take a close look at each chart and the commentary inside.



Taking a look at 1) the time underneath the “Kumo Cloud” [one boxed number to the next], i.e., the start and end of the move high to low, 2) the price move differentials between high and low, and 3) starting over @ 1 when the market peeked for a minute above the “Kumo Cloud” and then started the process all over again. These are the 3 areas I want to concentrate on in EURJPY. Directly below, the boxed numbers of time moves, and numbers of lengths of the moves in price, on both charts in black circles on Gann’s ‘Square of Nine’ so you can see how they line up from today’s heaviest action.


My point in bringing this to you is to show you the power of the version 4 algorithm, which is predicated on Gann’s ‘Square of Nine”, and the fact that the cloud does a very good job of modeling the probability of time spent over or under the “Kumo Cloud”, and once you’ve done that, taking the starting points of each move and mapping price to see the overall fit. The good news, is that the algo is all “visual”, so unless you want to, there isn’t any need for number crunching in real time; simply watch the screen.

Today, I messed up in the “Anti-DAX30” and my first trade got me in too early; granted, it was off the lower SDEV line [which is a buy], but I got my stop run on the heavy EURUSD sell stops … for a second or two it looked great, and then plummeted quickly. My second trade should have been my first, and although if I had gotten in a second quicker I would have received a much better fill, it was still a profitable trade. Overall, though, cuz of the first one, collectively we lost about $125, which isn’t terrible, but I should’ve known better. Blame this first loss on me, not the algorithm, cuz it wasn’t the algo’s fault. In my defense, the very tiny break of the Dow30, and then subsequent rally, I thought meant the EURUSD selling was over … it wasn’t, there was one more down leg to go, however brief, but that was enough when panic is in the air. In any event, just sayin’.

The DAX30 was disappointing today because there were zero signals to get long … a few times it came within about 5 -7 points, but that evaporated quickly as the EURUSD got slaughtered and the market rallied. As for the Dow30 & SP500, I’m simply at a loss to explain the total pathetic trading action in either market. It just doesn’t move … simple as that. All we get in the Dow30 is “vapors” during the night, and then “protect & defend” during the New York session; today was no different, even with the NFP. If I didn’t know better, I’d say nobody in the Dow30 cared about whatever jobs number came out … it could be anything, and they wouldn’t care … it just lurches higher … dies for a while … then lurches higher again … rinse, repeat, see ya later. And it’s been like that for months, as the manipulators will not let up in their determination to never let stock prices go lower again. And if you think I’ve got just a touch of hyperbole in this, I’ve got a chart to show you different.

And to make matters worse, this is the 12th day in a row the SP500 has not moved 0.50% from the high to the low of the entire 12 days! In the 90 year history of the SP500, going back to 1927, when it came into existence, the market has never seen this … ever. So yea, tell me again this stuff isn’t being overtly manipulated and a free market exists.

Here in late afternoon, just doing some looking at EURJPY, and the last move of the day directly below with commentary. I mean, seriously, how good is the “Kumo Cloud” along with the ‘Square of Nine’? Can’t wait for next week, cuz if the traditional stock indices don’t get their donkeys in gear, the “Anti-DAX30” [a/k/a EURJPY] will be a killer for us. Onward & Upward!


PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.



Time for the beach … the dog and I are out the door … until Monday mi amigos!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

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