“Dude,
whaddaya call that?”
Well,
for starters, I don’t call it much of a market … 10+ hours and counting of
solid “bat guano” on a stick … “can I
warm that up for you”? From the European open, a total “chopfest” of
monumental proportions, with a “20 something” PIP range over 8 hours [and
growing], that makes going to the dentist a treat in comparison. “I dunno where to start with this EURUSD
POS, it’s so bad … how many times can you buy 29’s and sell 24’s or sell 24’s
and buy 29’s, looking for some kind of breakout, where on the M30 candlestick,
it all looks like somebody smudged a pencil mark it’s so small? This is
seriously ugly trading action”.
And
just like that, where last week you couldn’t get a downtick to save your life,
this week so far, it’s the exact opposite … “did
somebody flip a switch? Did the scumbag LP’s get an email from “Super Mario” at
the ECB telling them to “sell Mortimer, sell”? … cuz I checked my email, and I
got zip”! Perhaps, the change in tone, has something to do with two articles
today on ZH; the links directly below.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-08/bond-market-breaks-above-key-inflation-threshold-what-next
Cuz
if rates are about to take off, and the FED, under a new ringmaster, start aggressively
hiking rates due to an exploding economy along with inflation, you can kiss EURUSD
and the 1.21 area “goodbye”; 2 months from now, we could be sub 1.15 … and who
knows, it could go DOWN a lot faster & farther than that. “Cuz I gotta tell ya, not being able to even
hold an 8 – 15 PIP rally, after getting drubbed over 150 PIPS since the NFP
report does not bear well for EURUSD down the road”. Of course, bond yields
could back up, inflation expectations could die down, and both could be wildly
wrong … if that’s the case, then EURUSD will catch a bid again … but until
then, even if both these articles are even half right, it’s gonna be a very tough
trade on the upside. I’m a trader, not an analyst, but I know and can recognize
any market that has either “bullish” or “bearish” tones and fingerprints …
until EURUSD breaks the 1.1850 area on the downside, you have to give the “benefit
of the doubt” right now to the bulls … but beware, things can change quickly
and trap the unwary. And if true, market tone could change drastically in very
short order, and rates, both FED rate hikes & the 10YR treasury yield,
could go “north” much faster than anybody anticipates.
Still,
today’s trading action is an insult to the word “pathetic”; “good grief, we can’t even get out of the 20’s
for a range? … and as I have stated before many times, it’s this kind of
modified “Flying Wedge of Death”, where the market just moves “almost” to a new
8-hour session high, and then hits a new low [5 times by tenths of a PIP to 2
PIPS], and then rapidly rallying off that low to trap shorts … rinse, repeat
about 10 times today, and that pretty much recaps the whole day, where you can
get bloodied very badly looking for the intraday volatility breakout that never
comes”. “Oy” is an element best to be avoided!
I
had planned on commenting on the “Volatility Summary Table” today, but upon
some Homer “deep thoughts”, I’ll post my comments this weekend when I post the
raw data for “The Magnificent Seven”.
One
legit trade today, and one “screw up” … the screw up came from the volume box
changing as I entered the order to buy; instead of 200,000, I did 5,000 … this
is the second time this has happened to me, and only happens on my laptop with
the mouse-pad, and not using a regular mouse on the desktop … anyway, when I recognized
the incorrect volume, I got out of it, and then got long 200,000 like I originally
wanted. And while I got up on the trade, again it came back and I was forced to
liquidate with a tiny profit. “Ok, now prove
to me you can go somewhere, otherwise I’m not coming back into this slop again
today”. [I think I hurt the market’s feelings.]
Like
yesterday, this type of market action with restricted ranges is frustrating …
not the least of which is sitting here watching paint dry. There simply are no
trades worth taking once it becomes apparent you’re in this kind of “bizarro world” trading environment …
anything you do, is likely to be down PIPS immediately, and then it’s a hope
and a prayer it comes back … at some point it doesn’t, and that’s where the
real trouble starts … no thanks. I’m not trying to make all of you millionaires
via the “29 cents a day plan”, but it most certainly doesn’t improve things to
get whacked either. In any event, back at it tomorrow … I’m outta here … Onward
& Upward!!
PAMM
spreadsheet directly below.
Have
a great day everybody!
-vegas
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