IT STARTS

 

“Listen! … I’m the ECB & EURUSD is not to go higher … get it?”

Well, whaddaya gonna do with the Chuckleheads, when they scream EURUSD higher to over 1.23 in the first hour of the Asian session, with no discernible news whatsoever? EASY PEEZEE: You trot out the usual suspects from the ECB for some “choice comments”. And here they are from last night via ZH: “the ECB have continued to sound the alarm over the strengthening currency with Vice-President Constancio and Austrian Central Bank Governor Nowotny both echoing comments made yesterday by France’s Villeroy. Constancio said he is concerned about sudden movements that do not reflect fundamentals while Nowotny said the strengthening Euro is not helpful.” If only somebody, somewhere, could have predicted this.

Ok then, who’s up for watching Mrs. Wantanabe & “gal pals” puke EURUSD over a 100+ PIPS into the European open? “Hey, I tried to warn them the other day to “leave it alone”, but do they ever listen? … Nope … Is there anything you trade that actually “works out”, or are you like politicians [especially Libtards], in that everything you touch turns to “bat guano” in seconds? And with Bitcoin now below 10K and in freefall, I’m wondering how much Japan GDP falls this quarter … go to a casino, but leave FX alone”.

But aside from the insanity of the traders in Asia, who by the way have never seen a market they don’t love to “shove” higher [and lose money] … especially gold & Bitcoin … there are 2 things on the horizon that should make EURUSD bulls hesitant; 1) CFTC COT in EURUSD at “record-er-er” levels, and 2) next Thursday’s ECB meeting & Super Mario presser.

Directly below, the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders [COT] for EURUSD, since the inception of the pair in 1999.

 

Record level of long positions in EURUSD futures by all spec accounts; well, that means scumbag LP banks are record short. EXIT QUESTION: “Who do you think wins, when it’s the scumbag LP’s against all the specs? To ask the question is to answer it”.

And while I’m not looking for any big moves lower, it very much appears to me the ECB has drawn the proverbial “line in the sand” at the 1.23000 level for EURUSD; any attempts to go higher here, in the short term, are going to be met with harsher language … and, I’m going on record right now, in saying that Super Mario, next Thursday, the 25^th of January, 2018, is gonna try and completely burst the EURUSD bull bubble … I’m not predictin’, just sayin’, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see EURUSD have a 200 – 300+ PIP range next Thursday. Make no mistake, the ECB does not welcome the rise in EURUSD this far, this fast, and last nights trio of ECB Pie Holes is a clear warning to the big money trade and the market in general, which is, “proceed higher at this too fast of a pace at your heightened risk”!

Consider, that the last ECB meeting was in mid-December; EURUSD was between 1.15 – 1.16, and the 10YR. benchmark German Bund was yielding right around 0.25%. It’s now the end of January, EURUSD is stubbornly above 1.22, and the 10 YR. Bund is around 0.55%. The market has already tightened rates in the E.U. by over 25 bps [basis points], and in the process scared the daylights of Apparatchiks all over the E.U. that this rise could halt whatever anemic growth the E.U. is experiencing … “and I will be shocked, if Super Mario doesn’t give the most dovish outlook for rates and easing of QE you’ve ever heard, and blow EURUSD RIGHT OUT OF THE WATER” … especially if by next Thursday EURUSD is above 1.23!”

Turning to today’s action … not much to do when the range is over 110 PIPS from Asia … all it means is most likely vicious chop … and what in fact did the first 8 hours of the trading day produce? Why of course, the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], with the M5 candlestick detailing the ugly action directly below.

 

In essence, thanks to the “setup” of the day from the Asian session, the day is ruined for any decent trading … of course, if you want to close your eyes and risk 20 to make 2, then have at it.

The sloppy action I’m seeing today, along with the support at 1.21950 – 1.22000 in EURUSD, and subsequent rally back, tells me next time down be very careful about getting long with a stop sub 1.21950 … there’s a decent probability your sell stop gets mauled and the fill isn’t anywhere near your stop price … adding insult to injury, within seconds it comes right back up to the 1.21900 area and NOW WHAT?

Today’s low [so far] looked more like a low, than the “can’t we just give everybody a chance to buy the low”? BS we’ve seen lately. The problem with today are the spikes; you got longs liquidating and at the same time shorts in panic mode, and it is the reason one up spike is followed by a brutal move to the downside. Quite frankly, from 08:00 server time, taking a look and surveying the landscape of the trade, I don’t want to be on either side, cuz whatever you’re up in a trade, blink your eyes and there’s the very real possibility your stop is getting filled … it’s that kind of day.

Only one trade today for a tiny profit … got up quickly on the trade, but it came back, and in this market today, I’m not hanging around to see what happens next. If the market can go below 1.21950 and take out yesterday’s low, I’ll be buying on the breaks down, and covering on the subsequent rally … unfortunately, we haven’t seen that, as the day is nothing more than an FWD best avoided and forgotten. Here, almost 10 hours after the European open, from that open M5 range of 17 – 28, we’ve seen 2 new highs and 4 new lows, and currently I’m showing price at 39 … big whoop, and you can thank the Chuckleheads in Asia for the action … “Will somebody please take the laptop away from Mrs. Wantanabe and her “gal pals” before the entire country of Japan goes suddenly bankrupt”.

Everybody and their brother is buying the dips down to 1.22, and along with already “record-er-er” long positions in futures and the ECB showing up, longs had better be careful above 1.22400 … of course, with the moronic Chuckleheads in Asia bailing out longs every night, there hasn’t been much caution as of yet … I’m thinkin’ that’s about to change, but who knows, I take it one day at a time and evaluate accordingly; that drastically reduces risk and allows for profitable trades … some days are better than others obviously, but profitability comes from brutally controlling risk, not taking shots that make no sense for reward/risk. We’ll see what happens tomorrow … I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

  

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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