WHEN EVERY MOVE IS “PANIC CITY”

 

“He who panics first, gets to panic again later.”

Well, wasn’t that a “gift” to the scumbag LP banks yesterday, late afternoon in New York after stocks had closed? It was either scumbag LP bank coordinated, or done on behalf of the FED, for their collective benefit, via one of their “dummy” offshore accounts that they use for the “Plunge Protection Team” [buy stocks], “Rally Protection Team” [sell gold], or FX manipulations. In any event, the financial MSM need to find a “reason” … understand, it can be anything handy … car sales in New Zealand “unexpectedly” lower, so sell EURUSD, but they picked up on the Apple repatriation and the $35 billion in tax they will pay … that will be in USD from offshore, but there’s just one problem with the logic here … Apple is doing it over the next 5 years, not tomorrow or next week … well whoops!

And remember what I have said in the past … “1) the scumbag LP banks will FIND A WAY; through stops, via mystery ticks, odd-hour shenanigans, begging the FED for help … whatever. And when it comes down to specs versus the scumbag LP banks, the banks will win every damn time, and 2) the entire world is long EURUSD, and for the 7^th day in a row, have tried to muster it higher regardless the PIE HOLES at the ECB warning otherwise, and “record-er-er” long futures positions”. And guess what? They found their way late yesterday afternoon.

Asia last night was dull; “I’m only guessing, but I assume the Chuckleheads need some checks to clear the bank before they can continue their nighttime losing ways”. Coming into the European session, it took almost 4 hours to rally 15 PIPS … and then it started to get extremely vicious. “Buy Mortimer buy!!” … wait, the M1 is turning red; “Sell Mortimer sell!!! … every new high by a fraction got sold off immediately hard, diddled for a few minutes, and then sky rocketed higher on some really wicked up spikes … rinse, repeat about 30 times, and you have the entire day. One of the worst “up day” action trading days I think I’ve ever seen, cuz the only way you made money today … the only way, if you didn’t just get long and close your eyes and risk 40 PIPS … was to be extremely quick on liquidation longs, and buy before the spikes … other than that, I’m betting you had a really rough time or got “monkey hammered”.

And yes, I know EURUSD is in a current bull market … however, what I’m most concerned about is what you see directly below coming “out of the blue”.

   

 

How does 19 minutes taking out 6 hours of up action sound? … no warning, no nada … just open the trapdoor and have at it. So why? Remember the Pie Holes at the ECB, and I’m pretty sure they have “whispered” to the scumbag LP banks that they got their collective backs, and that EURUSD simply ain’t going over 1.23 … and so, they’ll let you bid it up, and when you’re done with the foolishness, they slap the hell out of you. “This is FX, this is how the game is played”!

Quite frankly, ever since my first trade in the 30’s, I was not comfortable at all being long today … didn’t want to be short, but with what happened yesterday, opening higher and going higher seemed like a longshot, with at the very least some very nasty drops thrown in just to remind you “what’s what”.

I want to bring up another important factor in trading, cuz today it made a real difference; I trade via Turnkey Forex, and the spread most of the time during the European & U.S. sessions is 1/10^th of a PIP … throw in RT commissions of $2 per 100,000 notional, and no matter what I do, if I’m long and ERUSD is 3/10ths of a PIP higher on the bid side for me to sell, I’m in a profit position. Believe it or not, there are still plenty of offshore brokerage houses, where the spread is 1 – 2 PIPS … now, given the nature of today’s trade, how the hell do you make money with that? “And, in case you hadn’t thought of it, that’s precisely the point … you aren’t”!

The entire “setup” for today’s trade was all wrong … open higher and go higher all day after yesterday’s drubbing? And not only that, a bearish engulfing pattern reversal off a 3 year+ high on the daily candlestick chart… “oh yea, sign me up for the train ride, where can I buy a ticket”? And as the above chart shows, all those spikes up, all the “herky-jerky” upside action that has traders convinced there ain’t ever gonna be another down day evahhhh; all that taken away in 19 minutes, which accounted for practically the entire U.S. day.

So, ever since EURUSD went through 1.2223 – 25, and the higher it went, the more cautious I became, cuz I know it would be very unlikely … very small probability … that EURUSD can go up and go past 1.2170 – 1.2180 and completely wipe out yesterday’s downside “gift” to the scumbag LP banks. In essence, what you see above in that chart in the blue rectangle, is what I was hoping to see at some point in early Europe … well, here we are in the afternoon of New York; now, if you’re long, you don’t want to see this late, cuz very soon, any longs still long above 1.2130 – 1.2140 or higher are gonna have to start pushing the panic button due to time considerations … and if they get this stuff under 1.22 again today in New York, it has the potential to be … “ugly”.

Today’s trading from the get-go, offered only one reward/risk scenario … risk potentially 10 – 15 PIPS right now on spikes down, to make 1 or 2 PIPS. I knew almost from the beginning, this was NOT a “hold on cuz we’re going a lot higher” kind of day … more to the point, if you get up and it comes back, be quick, don’t hesitate, and click the liquidate button before the others put you in with “Thelma & Louise” for the ride down … and that’s not a place I want to be.

Two trades today, and the only reason we are up money today are 1) my paranoid aversion to risk, and knowing what kind of day this was/is, and more importantly 2) the lowest spread & RT commissions on the planet … if we were someplace else, after these 2 trades, we’d be down money. One thing of note; this is the 7^th day in a row of complete & total upside action during the European session and about 99% of New York; take away yesterday’s very late in the day downdraft, and you’d be hard pressed to find another 7 days in the history books on EURUSD, where so much has been gained in price on so very little hard data … other than the benchmark 10 YR. Bund going up about 31 bps in the last month, and tightening for the E.U. by the market, there isn’t a lot of evidence Super Mario and his gang of Twits are ready to “pull the trigger” and actually do anything. My guess is, right now, Super Mario hasn’t a clue what he’s gonna say at next Thursday’s presser … depends on where EURUSD is trading … if it’s above 1.22, and especially if we are above 1.23, I’m really thinkin’ he’s gonna carpet bomb EURUSD into oblivion with very dovish comments … if we can fall down into the low to mid 1.21’s, he might tone it down a bit. Remember, though, Super Mario has a history of contentious ECB pressers, and if we’re in the 1.22’s or higher, and it appears to the market he’s OK with this, then upper 1.20’s here we come … all the while stabbing the scumbag LP banks in the back [“not a bad thing actually”!]. I don’t think he would do this, but you never know with him.

As I’ve said before, trees don’t grow to the sky, and what EURUSD really needs, unless they want to see a really “butt ugly” collapse come next Thursday, is some downside action that “shakes out” some of these “Johnny come lately” long position holders … from there, we can see some nice rallies, but this isn’t the DOW30 or SP500, where central banks are manipulating the market from going down, this is EURUSD, and make no mistake, the ECB is not happy right now, and I think that has a very high probability of capping EURUSD in the days ahead to next Thursday with that high at 1.23231. Let’s hope we can see Asia & then Europe early go lower for a change, and end this mindless BTFD without a care in the world, the market seems to be obsessed with right now … and nothing will change that attitude better than an early move lower in Europe. We’ll see of course, and it is what it is, and I trade it accordingly … I’m so outta here … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

 

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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