WE ARE ALL CENTRAL BANK HOSTAGES

 

“A public service message from your central bank!”

I’m running out of adjectives to describe just how pathetic trading action has become … after about 9 ½ hours, it’s nothing but spikes & stops getting filled … all-in-all it’s the same old story of “hurry up & wait” for Thursday, and news coming out of the most dysfunctional place God ever created, Washington, D.C. Another worthless Monday, the focus on whether the U.S. government stays shut … who cares? … and of course, Thursday’s ECB meeting. For the 9^th day in a row, EURUSD only sees any down moves after up moves … currently, we’re stuck within a very tight 50 PIP range … 1.2225 to 75 pretty much is the yo-yo the trade is embarked upon, and we are in the 6^th day in a row of this crap.

Here at midday, a brief dollar surge as Libtards blink and reopen the government … move down to 1.22250, but that’s it … again, still stuck in “FX mud”. At the European open @08:00 server time, EURUSD has an M1 of 1.22360 – 1.22420; now at the start of 18:00, current bid in EURUSD is 1.22430 … 10 hours and counting of literally nothing of any substance. We’ve been up to the mid 60”s, and down to the mid 20’s on news the U.S. government shutdown is over … big whoop … and now we simply drift, with spikes up & spikes down and who knows where this stuff is headed, cuz there simply is no kind of trend showing up here so far today, and the day as a trading opportunity is a complete joke.

Cuz here’s the problem, encapsulated perfectly by the M1 chart directly below; I have repeatedly stated, that trading success is not dependent on you predicting where any market goes, that it is “risk” that you have to concentrate your efforts. Even if you accept the premise that the trading day is a “chopfest” [which I almost never do], you can scalp your way through the day, and then … BOOM! … and as the chart below shows, all your previous profitable scalps go “buh bye” within 3 or 4 minutes [sometimes 1], and now you take a “hit” … how are you going to make it back now? … Where’s the next 20 PIP move on a day like this?

 

 

What most traders don’t realize, is that “chopfest” days provide some of the worst spikes, both up and down, you’ll see outside of news, and the market is going nowhere. Pretty much everything gets violated; support lines, resistance lines, double tops, double bottoms, you name it and the chart books will lead you astray, all the while the scumbag LP’s are playing you like a violin … you end up buying highs and selling lows, and don’t even know why. It is simply a “logical fallacy” to assume you can sidestep the “trapdoors” the scumbag LP’s set for retail specs; they happen too fast, and they freeze most traders like a deer in headlights. The fact is, on most days, this isn’t the case … until Thursday, we might see more of this.

No trades today, as this “doji” like daily candlestick day is nothing but trouble and high risk with very little reward; there is no reason to wander into a mess like this when the reward/risk is “lose 10 make 1”. I’m hoping Tuesday and Wednesday see some long liquidation, but we’ll see … good solid support at the 1.2150 area down to 1.2125. I doubt seriously if, before the ECB meeting & presser, if this support can be challenged without news of some kind, and by the same token, the 1.23000 level looks and feels insurmountable until Thursday. Without some kind of long liquidation before then, Thursday has the potential to be a bloodbath on the downside, and if Super Mario is believed to be OK with the 1.23000 level, an almost certain “melt-up” most likely will occur … it’s gonna be a very tight needle to thread to keep markets stable … don’t count on it. Hopefully tomorrow sees better trading conditions … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

 

 

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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