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Tuesday, July 11, 2017

HURRY UP & WAIT: JULY EDITION

“I see you’re waiting for the FED!”

Zzzzzzz … oh wait, markets are trading … some traders suggesting the world is watching Wimbleton tennis instead; “ummm no Skippy, the world isn’t the Hamptons”. Anyway, it’s likely to be a snoozer today simply because ChairSatan Yellen gives congressional testimony tomorrow at 10, giving the assclowns in Congress a chance to “grandstand” for a sound bite in the ’18 midterms; nothing like showing the Sheeple back home that you got their interests firmly in your mind, even though you don’t and could care less.

Turning to today’s market … boring to “that escalated quickly didn’t it”? If you haven’t been keeping up with my posts [naughty boy… girls are always naughty so it makes no diff], let me be the first to say that I’ve been talking and writing about “speed of light … crickets” trading for months on end … the fact that Pols & their various Apparatchiks have taken over markets; not just the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT], but spokesman for the FED, congress, the White House, and a host of others with inside connections to various government institutions. They come out of the blue and can either rocket markets higher or set off an avalanche; today we get the avalanche from President Trump’s kid.

In a sane world not inhabited by lunatic Libtards, where under every rock lies a Russian conspiracy, these emails are a “nothing burger”; to die hard “Trump haters” [and you know who you are] it means impeachment in 5 minutes. Fact is, it reminds me of the 1950’s McCarthy hearings where Sen. McCarthy of Wisconsin was unearthing communists in government … yeah, he got some, but he also smeared a hell of a lot of people and ruined careers with unsubstantiated innuendo and false logic … just cuz you know a Libtard, and talked to one once, doesn’t make you a Libtard. I went to Alabama once; does that make me a Confederate soldier?

Of course, the Dow30 plunged today on the email news; I’m sitting here and see the carnage, and know better than to blindly just say, “oh, the Dow30 just has to stop here … as it goes another 30-50 lower in seconds”. You simply can’t do that; and you got to find out what the selloff was all about … it’s one thing to run stops for 10-20 points, it’s another to go on a 150 point 20 minute grand slam lower. Fact is, until it was over, I had no idea what happened … at first glance I thought it might be FED related to tomorrow’s Yellen testimony in front of Congress, or with earnings season upon us, a “hush hush” secret bombshell negative surprise was coming forth. “Seriously, these Trump Jr.  emails? You’re tellin’ me after reading this crap it means anything? Christ, what a nothing burger of crap … if emails mattered, Cankles Clinton would be in prison already serving life sentences, for crap far worse than talking to Russians for 20 minutes… and while I’m on the subject, how come Obama isn’t in front of a Grand Jury right this instance for telling Medvedev, while he thought the mic was off, “tell Vladimir I’ll have more flexibility with nuclear weapons once the election is out of the way” bullshit? … oh wait … my mistake … Obama is black and a DEM … never mind, it isn’t important that he sells the U.S. down the “F-ing river” to the Ruskies! … nah, move along Sheeple, nothing to see here …Hells bells, no wonder the market rebounded after the longs got crucified on sell stops and we’re back up to where we started this charade!”

But, for the record, and in case you missed the “message” from the friendly PPT, who came into the market 3 times after the carnage and sent the Dow30 all the way back to the high of the day, it’s this: “sell at your peril … cuz when you’re done with the sell stupidity [from our viewpoint], we’re gonna ram the market up you donkey so far you’ll develop a migraine headache! … have a nice day”. Get it?

Well, now that we got ourselves another FWD in the making, somebody enlighten me as to what the daily candlestick is most likely to look like come the end of the day at 8 P.M.; that’s right another frickin’ “Doji” … a trader’s worst enemy … remember I have said, they come in “clusters”, and if things stay the way they are now to the close, this will be the 2nd Doji in a row on the Daily Candlestick chart. And why shouldn’t it, with ChairSatan Yellen testifying tomorrow, with the heightened probability she “steps in it” somehow and either sets off rockets or “Thelma & Louise”; but tomorrow, we all know she’s coming … we are expecting it … today? Who the hell knew? … like I said, when you got no idea why prices are plummeting, and cascading M1’s look like a parabolic curve on the downside, it’s easy to look back in hindsight and say, “umm yea, a good place to buy [while your finger is on the bottom of the move]”. In real time, you don’t have that luxury; I’m not unhappy about not participating in it, cuz I literally had no idea what the hell was going on; I don’t watch the “news”, I watch “setups”, cuz it’s the only thing that matters … nothing else does cuz the “setup” is always the same regardless of the news, so who needs it?

Coming into today, I thought maybe … maybe with Yellen tomorrow and the world waiting … we could get some “position squaring” that could lead to a trade or two … no way I saw this clusterfark exploding … a perfect excuse for a sizeable rally tomorrow if Yellen “threads the needle” and makes the Street happy with her bullshit, simply because the longs got crucified today … again, the setup provides the opportunity for some major upside rockets tomorrow if she can avoid saying something totally stupid and inane. Not predictin’, just sayin’.

Meanwhile, before the carnage, I got in one trade for a profitable scratch scalp … really wasn’t looking for anything on the upside in terms of a “pony ride” … the Trump Jr. carnage in the stock indices caught me by surprise, especially when I read the emails to gain whether or not this had “legs” … when it didn’t, I’m kind of wondering about the solid negative reaction of the Dow30 and why traders panicked, but put in context with Yellen’s testimony tomorrow, it makes perfect sense to run the sell stops, get the retail longs out of the market, and when tomorrow comes and she delivers, everybody can then sell back to the folks who will be rushing in to get long again … in other words, it all makes sense.

Here we are about 40 minutes from the close, and the market is about 10 index points in the Dow30 from where I originally liquidated my long position. If you had knocked me out right after the trade, and then woken me up just a minute ago without telling me what transpired today, and then told me the Dow30 is 10 points from my liquidation, I would tell you thanks for letting me take a nap for 3 – 4 hours while this crap did nothing waiting for Yellen tomorrow.

From a strict version 4 algo standpoint, after the first green M1 from hitting the yellow SDEV line, would have been a great buy; from a logistical & trading standpoint, we got to deal with scumbag LP’s who 1) widen the spread, 2) hand out slippage to everyone no matter whether you are buying or selling, and 3) are thrashing the Dow30 around in 5-10 point increments. Push the button to do anything, and you better well be damn right about it, cuz if you aren’t, you’re looking at 30-40 points of headache almost immediately if you are wrong. Do this 2 or even 3 times in a row, and you won’t be available when it’s time to make the right trade. From this perspective, I don’t see the imperative in risk/reward. Since the bottom of the carnage, the PPT has been in 3 times … after each, scroll the M1 and what do you see? … do you see any trading? … cuz what I see is a market going sideways that can’t even get out of a 2 point spread … then BOOM!, here they come gain for another 40-50 point mini-melt up in 3 or 4 minutes straight up the elevator … rinse & repeat. When you get right down to it, pretty much everybody is waiting for Yellen tomorrow, cuz outside the PPT shenanigans & the “Trump Dump, Part Deux” [the first one being May 17th I believe], that got longs to puke, nothing has happened … welcome to the new normal.

And don’t you just love the BS shenanigans pulled again in the last half hour of trading with a PPT thrust of 25 points in less than 2 minutes to a new high for the day, thus doing 2 things; 1) setting off retail buy stops and putting another nail in the coffin of short players, and 2) reminding you again for the 4th time, “go ahead and sell it … we will be waiting for you”. Onward & Upward!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Time for the DQ, where the “ice cream King” dog has found teenage girls to feed him in the late afternoon … I’ve created a monster … and after that, the beach awaits … we’re outta here … until tomorrow’s wonderful excursion into Fedspeak with Grandma Yellen.

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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