You have to know who you are psychologically and how you want to trade … the
cost here is you have to be honest with yourself … you have to be disciplined and
show patience … you can’t care about the money, cuz it’s about the trade … and
you attempt to stay emotionally on an even keel, never getting giddy when
winning and never crying in your beer after a loss … at the end of the day, if you
lost money, it’s a very simple equation … did my algorithm or trading model fuck
me up, or was it me doing stupid shit … 99/1 says it was stupid shit … never get
mad at yourself for not seeing a move, only that you didn’t do what you were
supposed to do … these are some of the “costs to trade” … master them and
your life will change … ignore them or think I’m full of shit, keep score and let me
know how it goes.
Markets, no matter which one you want to concentrate and trade, ARE NEVER
ABOUT FACTS; PRICE IS DETERMINED BY “PERCEPTIONS”! … perceptions by
banker Elites to the financial MSM and large scumbag bank analysts everywhere
… the goalposts are ever shifting and the narrative always changes … one day it’s
the inflation bogeyman, and the next it’s something else … and ever since
January 2015, when we had the great “Swiss Debacle” in EURCHF, FX markets
have changed dramatically … outside of USDJPY, which cuz of insane central
bankstas, it gets tougher and tougher to find any long term trend for position
traders … it’s become a “traders market group”, where each and every day is its
own bull or bear market … granted, it’s never been cheaper in terms of cost to
trade anything in FX, where EURUSD @ IQCENT leads the way with a total cost
to trade EURUSD of 0.2 PIPS, and how beautiful is that?!
If I’m making money, call me anything you want … if I’m not, color me “wrong!”
… but the undeniable fact is, the longer your time horizon for trading, the more
that WILL GO WRONG, and the larger your loss parameters have to be inside
your trading model … there’s simply no way around this … why do you think
people used to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to come to the floor to
trade? … cuz they liked Chicago or New York? … Hell no, it was to get the “edge”
and enjoy the cheapest, lowest cost on the planet to trade … well, we got that
now and it’s FREE! … and to have the mentality of “scalping” just makes sense
to me cuz it gives me the MAX FLEXIBILITY, and always has … and if it ain’t
broke, don’t fix it!
The “key to success” always has been, and always will be dependent on 2
factors … 1) getting the very best trading conditions that exist [lowest spread,
lowest commissions, and a house where LP’s don’t fuck you every chance they
get via slippage and are in bed with brokerage house management … not an easy
task!], and 2) each & every day finding the relatively easiest side of the trading
ledger to trade on, knowing it could be a 50/50 proposition or only slightly tilted
to one side or the other … but also knowing that no matter what, you got to be
disciplined and show patience in your trades … the market you’re trading doesn’t
give a shit you promised your pet rabbit that you’d go to Cancun for vacation
next month and you need to make money, or that your Porsche needs to get
tuned up … think about those things and you’re doomed!
Of course, it’s way easier to find the right market today than it was years and
decades ago, simply cuz you could only stand in one pit, while you can surf your
trading screen and change markets in 2 seconds … but regardless, the costs
never shift, and they’re always there.
I laid out yesterday how to use the m15 in conjunction with the m1 for trading
… by default, I put RM=2 and RM=3 on the m15 chart … if conditions warrant, I
can always change very quickly [on the fly in 2 seconds] the RM=2 and make it
RM=4 if volatility increases … in more than 98%+ of all time periods, you won’t
have to make that change, but news events especially can easily change the
course of volatility … in most cases, I would start taking long entry scalp signals
if the m15 hits the RM=2 zone, and definitely if it hits the RM=3 zone … of course,
you need to be aware of the news, cuz usually that’s what it takes to get an RM=3
OR RM=4 reading, and judge whether or not to do this … and if not, that’s OK, just
wait for normal signals … by scrolling back in time over the history of any market
with the m15 on the MT4, and you can go back quite a ways (1 to 2 years easy),
you can get a very good idea how that market reacts to past volatility changes and
how you should trade them … this historical perspective can be very beneficial for
your trading, so take some time and do it! … and after you do it, you’ll see that the
RM levels are very accurate, ESPECIALLY IN THE “STOCK BELLIES” COMPLEX,
and should leave you in “shock & awe” they work so well … “if you can find
anything better, please let me know!”
Turning to today’s “Slots-A-Rama” inside the world’s most corrupt casino, the
ChiComs are thinking about “helicopter money” for the masses to get domestic
demand stimulated … right, like that’s ever worked … housing bullshit and FED
Lounge Lizard minutes in the afternoon highlight the trading day ahead of us,
which if overnight is any indication, it will be horribly slow … as always, cuz
we’re ALL interest rate traders now in case you just landed from Mars, the “fun &
games” in the 10 YR. will determine where everything goes … and of course, we
got a new “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] in rates, and their job is yield curve
control [YCC] … the new “bogeyman” on the horizon going forward will be the
literal explosion of the FED balance sheet, as they will gobble up Treasury fiat
like it’s turkey on Thanksgiving Day … how long will that scam work?
Well, it’s 7:30 AM EST in “Biden’s Gulag” [New York], and is it time to go to bed
yet? … slow? … no, completely comatose! … but don’t worry, the scumbag banks
will soon enough turn their attention to fleecing specs via fading order flow
… just remember, they need YOUR liquidity to get the best price for themselves
… don’t give it to ‘em!
USDJPY up 8 days in a row … the BOJ seems to make this easy don’t they?
… many things I don’t like about USDJPY, but you can’t deny its movement
relative to other FX pairs … more so than any other pair, USDJPY IS SUPER
HYPER SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN U.S. RATES … the 10 YR. especially, since
that’s the benchmark for BOJ yield curve control [YCC] … this market tends to
get over positioned [take your pick, long / short] cuz of its importance as the
denominator of world non dollar crosses, as it by far has the largest positions
… I’ll trade it if I have to, and others I’m sure have differing opinions about this
pair, but if you do trade it versus EURUSD or GBPUSD, it can be a lot more
vicious in its spikes and run on stops … and if you can get the total cost down to
about 0.6 or 0.7 PIPS, EURJPY AND/OR GBPJPY can be good alternatives for
scalping … at IQCENT, only the dollar pairs make the cut, although AUDJPY is
an intriguing FX pair cuz they trade that at only the 2 decimal level, instead of
3 decimal … bid / offer spread is 0.01 with no commissions.
As we head into the London Fix, this must be some kind of joke, right? … yea,
it’s August, so you can make that excuse, but this action is worse than pathetic
… or pathetic-er … it’s pathetic-er-er-er! … what little movement in rates today
has seen almost nothing from FX, in terms of its usual volatility … good news
on the CPI front from Cable, and it’s holding up well … EURUSD just can’t do
Mr. Jack “Diddly” Squat, with less than a 40 PIP range for the entire day … 1.09
support holding so far, but it’s all about the 10 YR. and what happens next.
“Stock Bellies” finally starting to puke … a long way to go on the downside to fair
value IMHO, but what do I know? … the love affair with tech darlings shows no end
in sight [so far] … but that can change in a hurry … we need to see lower prices in
the AM, and then when Europe closes a strong rally … so far, it’s been the
opposite almost every day, with BTFD-ers buying from the NYSE open, and when
that’s over everything rolls over to new lows in a few hours … that dynamic has to
change.
Looking at FX pairs, the clear VIX winner today, like most days is USDCNH … a
good 3 PIP TOTAL COST [spread, no commission] at IQCENT from about 8 PM
EST - 9PM EST - next day’s London Fix at NOON in “Biden’s Gulag” … from there
to the NYSE close it most likely will go to 4 PIPS total cost, so be prepared … this
is the best LOWEST COST in USDCNH out there, and given the implosion in the
ChiCom economy and defaults all over the place by gigantic real estate
developers, it doesn’t look to me like the 400+ PIP 20 Day Range MA is gonna be
going lower anytime soon … just today a major PBOC news mouthpiece has
stated that the VIX we’re seeing now in USDCNH is “normal”, and nothing for the
government to worry about … TRANSLATION: It’s gonna get even more volatile
in the days / weeks / months ahead …and from my research, it’s about a 50/50
split between the Asian session on the one hand, and the European + U.S.
session on the other for range … bottom line is no matter when you come to
trade it, the algorithm signals and moves will be there!
Directly below, a screenshot from today of the m15 on the left, and the m1 on the
right with algorithm up and running … m15 has RM=2 & RM=3 … m1 HAS RM=1 &
RM=2 running … some great signals and some good trades.
Here a little after NOON EST, the range [so far] in USDCNH ~ 300 pips, so it’s
running a little below normal in terms of total range … still, the action is good
and on days when EUR, GBP, & JPY do nothing but chop around in tiny chunks
of bullshit, or even as a main trading pair, this is a good pair to trade … just
follow the algorithm … you can follow directions, right?
Once the London Fix comes, here comes a new high in the 10 YR. yield today
… you just have to wonder how long “Stock Bellies” can hold up before an eye
watering meltdown comes … and with increased Treasury borrowings coming,
and the need for the Chicoms to raise Trillions of Yuan for their pet monkey
projects, how the Hell do rates go lower without an economic DEPRESSION?
… but hey, maybe it’s what they want … remember, “never let a crisis go to
waste!”
No trades today for the PAMM … whaddaya want me to do with a 7 hour 20
PIP-ish range? … then it breaks mildly after the London Fix … OK, whatever
… for “The Syndicate” @ IQCENT, multiple trades in USDCNH and we’re UP
APPROXIMATELY 0.7% … some decent, good signals despite a lackluster range
… onto tomorrow!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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