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Sunday, August 27, 2023

SUNDAY UPDATE: PARADIGM SHIFT COMPLETED & IN PLACE

 

“Wake up traders! … shake off the denial! … the truth is HERE!!”

The latest, and perhaps the last allowed before the revolution, has been

implemented and is in full practice around the globe … it’s taken the scumbags

known as central bankers a few years since that fateful day in January 2015 when

EURCHF almost brought down the entire global FX structure, but 2023 proves

beyond a shadow of a doubt that what existed before 2015 and what has

transpired since, are 2 completely different species of FX trading … and outside

of the COVID HOAX perpetrated on Sheeple all over the world, it’s moved along

quietly in other markets like “Stock Bellies” & crude oil as well … gone are the

days when anything resembling “fun-durr-mentals” mattered, where TBTF

[Too Big To Fail] & TBTJ [Too Big To Jail] scumbag banks were simply

“participants” in the trading process on behalf of clients … today, they’ve

morphed like a virus into placing themselves in the MIDDLE OF EVERY SINGLE

TRANSACTION, and if need be, enlist the help of scumbag central bank

Apparatchiks that will walk to a microphone, say a few words, and wouldn’t

you know it by some weird coincidence, price always goes in the direction of

bank profitability 100% of the time, specs get crushed like bugs on a

windshield, and thanks for playing!


Neither you nor I trade against some fuzzy concept known as a “market” … that’s

propaganda spewed out from Goebbels TV cable, most notably North Korean

state run CNBC and Dumbberg, as well as B-Schools whose only purpose is to

produce “worker bees” … they will never tell the truth cuz to do so would be the

end of your cushy TV gig, or “Ivory Tower” slot … anybody ever hear of Kathleen

Hayes from CNBC from years ago? … asked the wrong questions at a presser to

then Grand Head Lounge Lizard “The Bernank” and persisted with inconvenient

follow up questions, that clearly pissed him off … the next day she was gone

from CNBC.


Looking at the “Big 3” dollar pairs for proof, only EURUSD can be analyzed, since

both GBPUSD & USDJPY have special conditions that make analysis unavailable

… in the case of GBPUSD [Cable] there are 2 factors that must be considered

… 1) their central bank is “broke” … as in “dead broke” … they sold off all their

gold in the 1990’s at around an average price of $300 / OZ. [nice move Idiots!] to

pay for welfare to the “Free Shit Army” … 2) BREXIT, to one degree or another, was

a 5 - 7 year clusterfark of “Scumbaggery & Fuckery” by every POL & Apparatchik

looking to fill their mistress funds, and price action of Cable reflected it way more

often than it should have … in the case of USDJPY, again we have 2 factors that

need to be examined to understand its price behavior … 1) it’s the “carry

denominator” for non dollar crosses, and by far & away YEN crosses dominate

the “carry trade” … 2) USDJPY is hyper sensitive to the differentials between

Japanese rates versus U.S. rates, especially the 2 YR & then the 10 YR

government paper. 


Insane monetary policy by the BOJ, with their idiotic yield curve control [YCC],

have led to this market condition, and the only 2 things that matter to USDJPY in

terms of price are 1) is the BOJ gonna intervene anytime soon, either with

“words” [jawboning] or actual cash on the line, and 2) what was the last tick

up/down in the yield of either the 2 YR or 10 YR U.S. T-Note? … and while the

BOJ has called the bluff of an even bigger bunch of Dopes at the FED, their bond

market is the biggest in the world … so when YEN catches cold, every other

central banker notices, cuz the implications of their actions matter … in other

words, markets interpret this as “risk on / risk off” [RORO], something the

ChiComs understand all too well in their manipulations for state profit.


Bottom line is simple … only EURUSD can be analyzed in isolation for the effects

of FX manipulation, although all of ‘em participate in it, cuz the ECB is locked at

the frickin’ hip with the FED, while the BOE & BOJ ain’t … directly below, the first

chart is monthly EURUSD from 2003 - 2014, with commentary … the second

monthly EURUSD FROM 2015 - present, with commentary … please study these

2 charts, and pay particular attention to the blue box, which is EQUAL for both

time periods.


click on any chart to enlarge


And unless you’re blind or in total denial [no, it ain’t a river in Egypt!], you can

clearly see the vast shrinkage in volatility [VIX] since January 15, 2015 … right

on cue, right to the day / week / month, of their obsessive & total manipulation of

FX prices going forward … also notice the difference between the individual

monthly ranges … before 2015, they were “bigly & yuge” … since then, not even

close! … in 8 ½ years [2015 - PRESENT], EURUSD has 103 MONTHLY CANDLES,

and during that time 90 of those monthly candles have been LESS THAN 1500 PIP

range, basically 1.05 - 1.20 … that’s over 90% of the time! … only 13 of those

monthly candles fell outside of this pathetic range, and even then by not that

much … that represents LESS THAN 10% of the time! … manipulation can’t work

ALL THE TIME, but IMHO having it work 90%+ is pretty “Hoover Dam” good.


So, if the EURCHF debacle didn’t start the era of a new paradigm, somebody

explain to me why going forward why VIX has collapsed versus pre 2015

conditions? … if it’s not central bank intervention via their BFF scumbag TBTF &

TBTJ bank LP’s, then WTF is it? … it certainly can’t be cuz the world is more

predictable, less uncertain, less violent, or has less economic chaos … argue

that, and I’ll have the guys from the “rubber room” pay you a visit!

… “Psst!, You Awake!? … wake the fuck up and smell the coffee!”


And when “fun-durr-mentals” no longer matter, and it becomes a fucking daily

casino for the educated, something has to drive it … and there are 2 key critical

components of this driving force … 1) institutional & spec order flow, and

2) front running execution of orders by their ILLEGAL prop trading accounts

located in tax haven jurisdictions.


Scumbag banks, obviously, won’t share proprietary market data on customer /

client order flow … who’s doing what? / how big is it? / where are their stops at?

… we get useless “total volume” stats, but those aren’t valuable at all in FX

… and before any / maybe all who knows, orders get skewered by a trader on a

bank trading desk, you can bet your last dollar on the fact he/she is talking [most

likely on a burner phone bought by some teenager, or chat app that is encrypted

and will expire in 30 seconds after the message] to the prop traders who run the

offshore account [“Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel”, remember?] … if the

bank trading desk Jockey is buying for a client, and knows he’s gonna take

EUR / Cable / YEN up or down at least 5+ PIPS, he tells his opposite colleague

who immediately jumps in front of the order … once the offshore Asshat sees the

PIP move he/she liquidates … thank you, come again … rinse / repeat about

1000 times a day! … on the bank trading desk books, there’s nothing for anybody

to see, expect filling a client order … “what’s the problem officer?” … however,

the offshore prop account, which was setup via a tax haven law firm, and nobody

but nobody knows who the beneficiaries of this IBC [International Business

Company] or PIF [Private Interest Foundation] really belongs to, and which will

never be known as courts EVERYWHERE have refused to violate corporate or

foundation privacy, anonymity, & secrecy laws, gets all of the "skim" profit.


This profit is the ILLEGAL, off the books, booty that goes to the crypto accounts

of POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators EVERYWHERE … the rest goes to bank

honchos, including the bonuses of those running the offshore trades … it can be

laundered easily cuz nobody at the said bank has any clue who, or what, this firm

is doing since it’s totally off the books and away from anything the bank did filling

the order … compliance and/or regulators haven’t a clue! … and if you think I’m

full of shit, I direct your attention to a blog post from a few days ago, in which I

had the link to an almost $7 million dollar fine blueblood firm Morgan Stanley [MS]

paid cuz their energy traders got caught doing just this!! … here’s the link again,

in case you need your memory refreshed.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uk-fines-morgan-stanley-energy-traders-

using-private-whatsapp-messages


Although they caught ‘em in the act, they got fined $6.8 million dollars for not

keeping & maintaining the records of the chats … a nice way to say, “Hey, we

didn’t get our cut from energy trading! … WTF is the deal with that?!” … actually

having the proof they were scamming the market or a particular client, would

mean criminal prosecution, and nobody wants that cuz it might mean they can’t

trade anymore, and how would we get our cut then? 


Hopefully, the bluebloods at MS hire smarter traders, or maybe they need a class

in “diversity” … only, don’t just sit there and tell me this shit doesn’t take place in

every market 24/5/365, cuz I know it does! … saw it in spades on the trading floor,

and nothing has changed now that we’re in electronic trading, other than the

convenient fact that crypto exists now and doesn’t require the need for suitcases

full of Benji’s.


The new paradigm is quite simple … we’re in the “bank trading” paradigm, where

everything is a short term trade with the bank at the center of every single trade

… all markets, not just FX … CFD’s or futures it doesn’t matter, simply cuz one

way or another the bank either takes the other side of the spec trade, or is the

beneficiary of a hedge from one side of the trade … either way, they make

themselves part of EVERY SINGLE TRANSACTION … this is why, outside of a

few exceptions, notably USDJPY going skyward and crude oil during the COVID

HOAX, nothing ever trends for position holders [long or short] without getting

stopped out first or having to sit through horrendous losses for weeks / months

… and since 2015, it’s all pre-planned chop to have the bank take your money

away from you! … but, and this is a very big “but”, v3.1 of the trading algorithm

allows the bank to work for you instead of against you.


I’ll have the official pdf manual ready next weekend, but the only change is to

replace the VIDYA on the m1 with “SuperTrend” [ST], which is over in

“Download Links” for download and install onto the MT4 m1 chart … on the

m1, in “INPUTS” of SuperTrend, Nbr_Periods = 5, & Multiplier = 1.5 … I use Aqua

color for uptrend and White color for downtrend … on the m15. In “INPUTS” of

SuperTrend, Nbr_Periods =4, & Multiplier = 1.5 … again, I use same colors as

the m1 … the “Multiplier” in SuperTrend is simply the volatility factor … in

analyzing most markets I looked at [FX, “Stock Bellies”, crude oil, gold], 1.5

appears to be a really good fit … simply change and experiment for your

particular market if you want the trend to be tighter or looser, while realizing

“tighter” means more “false positives”, and “looser” means missing more

moves off the bottom or top … remember, you don’t get somethin' for nothin’

in trading!


I use the “UniFisher Transform” [UFT] in conjunction with the m1 ST … when the

m15 is Aqua on the ST, the m1 is in “buy mode”, when the m15 is White on the ST,

the m1 is in “sell mode” … I keep ALL market RM’s on the m15 at RM=2 AND RM=3

by default, and if need be I can change the RM=1 to RM=4 if things get really bat

shit crazy [BSC] … whenever the price hits the upper RM=3, the market goes into

“sell mode” on the m1 … whenever the price hits the lower RM=3, the market

goes into “buy mode” on the m1 … this is the only exception to override ST.


“Buy [LONG] scalps” come when 1) m15 ST is Aqua or hits lower RM=3], 2) m1 ST

is Aqua, and 3) UFT has either just crossed LIME OVER RED or is already LIME

OVER RED … use any pullback or corrective activity and look for another

crossover of LIME OVER RED on the UFT … DO NOT TAKE ANY BUY POSITIONS

WHEN THE UFT CROSSOVER IS OVER THE “2” LEVEL ON THE UFT

OSCILLATOR.


“Sell [SHORT] scalps” come when 1) m15 ST is White or hits upper RM=3], 2) m1

ST is White, and 3) UFT has either just crossed LIME UNDER RED or is already

LIME UNDER RED … use any rally or corrective activity and look for another

crossover of LIME UNDER RED on the UFT … DO NOT TAKE ANY SELL

POSITIONS WHEN THE UFT CROSSUNDER IS UNDER THE “-2” LEVEL ON THE

UFT OSCILLATOR.


If on the m15 chart, PRICE GOES TO THE LOWER RM=3 AND.OR RM=4 LEVEL

FOR PRICE, I NEED TO SEE AN M15 PRICE CLOSE ABOVE [FOR LONGS] THE

RM=3 LEVEL, AND IF PRICE GOES TO THE UPPER RM=3 AND/OR RM=4 FOR

PRICE, I NEED TO SEE AN M15 PRICE CLOSE UNDER [FOR SHORTS] THE RM=3

LEVEL, in order for me to switch on the m1 for either “buy mode” or “sell mode”

… most often times, being early to an m15 RM=3 and/or RM=4 move, and

switching sides will result in losses … price is at these levels for a reason, and it

takes some time for the market to absorb and work off excess bull or bear moves

on longer chart periods.


Use spikes in your profit direction to liquidate your position, or look for an

amount of PIPS [e.g., 2 or 3, or maybe 5, whatever, just make sure it’s realistic

and not fantasy land] … stops are subjective, and you can make them as tight or

as loose as your risk profile … I would, however, draw my line in the sand at a

color change on the m1 that goes against my profit direction … don’t let a tiny

loss turn into a bloodbath cuz you got stubborn … whatever you decide, stick

with it!


Also over in “Download Links” is a special mql4 code file for using the v3.1

algorithm to trade GBPJPY … using the normal FX code version for support /

resistance when price gets volatile will put the lines past RM=4, and that doesn’t

do anybody any good at all … I’ve simply expanded the “Gann Square of Nine”

[So9 and gone to higher energy levels cuz of the inherent volatility GBPJPY can

go to when things go a little BSC … if you trade GBPJPY, use the new GBPJPY

code for superior results, and for this pair ONLY ON THE M15, USE RM=1 &

RM=2 AS DEFAULT SETTINGS, and what you use for RM=3 & RM+4 for other

markets, use RM=1 & RM=2 for GBPJPY … I would also recommend for those

that trade GBPJPY, to scroll back to August 23, 2023 from about 10:00 - 14:00

server time [3 AM EST - 7 AM EST] and observe the m15 with the vegas mq4

code for GBPJPY … it took 4 hours, until about 14:00 to work off the plunge

lower and start the move higher … longs taken in this 4 hour period would have

been tough to navigate … at around 14:00 [14:30 candle to be exact on the m15],

GBPJPY had its first close over the RM=1 support level. 


From there, it never looked back going higher … it took ST another 4 hours to go

from White to Aqua … directly below, the split screenshot of the m15 on the left

with GBPJPY vegas mq4 code, and the m1 on the right WITH THE M1 STILL

USING THE REGULAR FX VEGAS CODE [the new code is only for the m15] … the

screenshot starts on the m1 right at 14:30, and from here on out the ST when

Aqua has NOTHING BUT PROFITABLE TRADES UNTIL THE ST GOES AQUA ON

THE M15 AT 18:30, SOME 4 HOURS LATER!


click on any chart to enlarge

I’ll be highlighting these types of scenarios in the upcoming Adobe pdf manual, in

GBPJPY, as well as other markets, utilizing 1) ST, 2) UFT, & 3) the vegas mq4 code

… bottom line from the change from  VIDYA to ST, is the fact that when VIX slows

you can get color changes rather easily in the VIDYA, that won’t change the ST

… this reduces chop and confusion … at the same time, when VIX picks its ass off

the floor and does anything, the differences in the VIDYA and ST are practically

nonexistent … quite frankly, IMHO it’s a tradeoff worth the effort to make the

switch.


Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets … for traditional

financial markets, I’ve included ALL OF THEM into 2 categories … 1) Daily 20 Day

Range MA, and 2) New York session 20 Day range MA … this essentially splits the

day into 2 equal parts … 00:00 - 12:00, and then 12:00 - 24:00 [00:00] … granted,

most of the time the last few hours are a waste going into late afternoon in New

York, but it allows you the trader to see which half of the day is more important

… this difference in the 2 halves is quite interesting, so take the time to observe

your particular markets you trade … I would note, though, I didn’t do this for

crypto or DAX30/40.


click on table to enlarge

A busy week, especially the back half with my favorite, NFP Idiocy, as well as

other shit hitting the revolving fan of obnoxiousness here in the last week of

August … J-Hole out of the way, so you people in Wyoming can relax now that

the Elites have fled, and Hookers & blow can go back to normal pricing levels

… onto the week! 


…  OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,

and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!


-vegas















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