A couple of metrics I want to mention today to help traders determine VIX during
the trading day … the first I’ve incorporated into the trading algorithm, and
traders can read all about it when the manual is released here in the near future
… the second is more immediate, and simply consists of creating on your MT4
an M1 chart with 2 SMA’s [simple moving average], period 60, one SMA from the
high and the other from the low … subtract the difference, and this is a floating
60 minute MA of the range of the m1’s … determine the bid/offer spread of your
trading pair and add whatever slippage is usually appropriate … the range of the
m1’s should be AT A MINIMUM at least 1 ½X - 2X the spread + slippage … if it’s
lower than that, you’re in a LOW VIX environment, and if it’s higher than that it’s
ideal for scalping or day trading, cuz at least it’s normal VIX or higher.
For example, earlier today in the European session gold was around 50 - 55 cents
for m1 range … earlier in Asia it was closer to 70 - 75 cents … now into New York
and the first couple of hours show around 70 cents … given Simple FX with a
spread around 30 cents and no commissions, even with a few pennies of slippage
the ratio is above 1 ½ … Turnkey a different story cuz of greater slippage and
slightly higher spread, and it puts the ratio UNDER 1 ½ … and if you get to the
point where that ratio gets under 1, look for something else to trade or don’t trade
the pair, it’s as simple as that.
And although it’s early yet, it feels like we’re headed for another sub 20 Day Range
MA kind of day … we’ve already had one reversal earlier, can it go for the double
reversal by hitting a new low? … dunno yet, but all the “gurus” infecting Wall
Street keep mentioning that “peak inflation” is here and it’s downhill from these
40 year high levels … Vampire Squid the latest entry spouting this mantra, and
more than likely it’s creating some heartburn for long positioned gold traders who
are being forced out of their positions via sell stops every $10 - $15 lower gold
moves … and of course, the scumbag bullion bank dealers are only too willing to
help you get that sell stop fill, with them on the other side … natch, it’s the natural
order of things from their perspective! … how far it goes is anybody’s guess, but I
certainly don’t see it falling anywhere near the level the CBR [Central Bank of
Russia] has for buying all gold from all those dumb enough to sell to ‘em … but
hey, panic is a fickle thing, and judging it when “Thelma & Louise” show up is very
tricky … it never hurts until it hits bottom … and while gold is “due” for some
corrective activity, given the coming depression from “Taliban Joe” and the
Lounge Lizards at the FED via higher rates [so they say], I don’t see many people
having any faith in either of the two to come close to solving even the easiest of
problems facing the “U.S. of China” … IN FACT, THEY MAKE PROBLEMS WORSE,
and the next depression brings QE FOREVER, and then wait & watch for the gold
fireworks to take place!
So far today, gold has been a tale of two cities … good m1 VIX, & shit M1 VIX,
all coming at the flick of a light switch … price driven by 1) faded spec order flow
by scumbag bullion banks, 2) long liquidation by long position holders, and to
some extent changes in the 10 YR Treasury Note rate earlier today it came within
a hair of 3%, and now sits at 2.89% as I write … all within a fairly narrow range
so far.
London Fix time, and as far as I’m concerned, this day is over … can’t extend a
piss poor range and m1 ranges running about 60 cents … yea, this sucks, and I
doubt it gets better in the New York afternoon … the daily chart looking like a doji
is gonna get put in … what utter horseshit for a trading day … did get one
algorithm buy signal early this AM … TURNKEY PAMM UP SLIGHTLY … horrible
slippage fill on entry, A+ on liquidation, so I guess it evens out … really though,
simply not a very good trading action day for gold … some BTC trades for “The
Syndicate”, and it’s up fractionally, as BTC didn’t do Mr. Jack Squat today
… about an $800 range since Europe opened, with ugly action on both sides
… not very good by BTC standards … so, onto tomorrow.
… outta here early today before my head explodes … “The future’s so bright I
need sunglasses”!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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