A perfect night for “Taliban Joe” … as he’s lying his way through another
bumbled speech of propaganda bullshit, a bird shits on his lapel … alas, does
this bird know his stuff or what?!
I got to my trading screen just before 5 AM EST, and some last minute Asian
session FOMO from the usual suspects lifted gold slightly … all in all, the Asian
session was completely dead, and when I saw that my immediate thought was
that traders have hit the exit gate for gold for the Easter Holiday … Friday
markets are closed, and Asia & Europe are closed Monday for, you guessed it,
Easter Monday … this happens every year almost without fail, although I was
hoping today would be “fun filled” and gold tomorrow would be dead … not so,
and since I have come in, gold has about a $5 range to show for 6+ hours of
trading, inside a very tiny “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], where we’ve been to
both sides of the tips about 5 times via m1 spikes from Hell.
And while there have been algorithm buy signals, what’s lacking in spades is any
kind of acceptable VIX that would make the signal statistically significant, rather
than the “coin flip” syndrome when VIX is dead … cuz when VIX is as bad as it’s
been since I came in today, signals don’t mean shit, and the “false positives”
climb exponentially … that doesn’t mean you need large corrective activity,
simply conditions where gold’s “fingerprint” is frequented actively throughout the
day … and this is absent, right along with any kind of buy fuel where the scumbag
bullion banks can work for us … there ain’t no buy fuel cuz there ain’t no trading,
so in this environment after you get a signal, more often than not price just sits
there and it’s Mr. Jack Squat wondering why the Hell it can’t move … it can’t
move cuz there’s no buy fuel … over the years and decades, more people have
lost money trading gold than all other markets combined, and one of the main
drivers of this is not understanding how VIX subtly changes and affects your
algorithm or trading model, no matter how simplistic and/or complicated it is
… cuz change it, it will sometimes dramatically … trading the edges of the FWD
and fading the tiny range is suicide, cuz at some point it blows up on you … not
“if” but “when”! … and then there’s no way to recover … this should be intuitive
for traders, but you’d be surprised how often it’s ignored.
Now into the New York afternoon, and this day is done as far as I’m concerned
… nothing here but dealer trouble in a very, very tiny range since Europe started
some 9+ hours ago … tomorrow probably the same, but who knows, it could be
active … we’ve been up 6 days in a row for about $60, so there’s that to consider,
along with resistance above 1980 that stretches all the way to 2000 … in a thin
market with no volume, good luck getting this to stretch … all this mind you with
a 20 Day Range MA = about $28, so we’re about 50% of that, indicating just how
bad trading action is today … in other words, the Easter Holiday started today for
the gold market.
A light rally in BTC today, but no great shakes, as that market continues to see
subdued trading action … it looks like this market is in Holiday mode as well
… no trades today in anything … not for want, but simply lack of any kind of
trading action with even low VIX … how about no VIX? … meh, it happens every
Easter … onto tomorrow … not expecting much, but we’ll see.
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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