SUNDAY UPDATE: OUTSMARTING THE CASINO

 

“That moment when the entire financial system finally made sense!”

Back in the “good old days”, before the 2008 financial crash, there were very few

that challenged the orthodoxy of a “free market” premise … today, I don’t know

anybody who’s serious about trading that doesn’t believe [with ample empirical

evidence to back it up] financial markets are heavily manipulated by government

Apparatchiks … Japan the most onerous & obvious case, but the “Plunge

Protection Team” [PPT] for “Stonks” and most importantly the major “Stock

Bellies” indices in the U.S. aren’t far behind … at its heart, the “Casino Game” is

played & ruled by central bank Apparatchiks, POLS, and the scumbag TBTF &

TBTJ major banks against everybody else … and all that matters is the “skim”

the banks can steal from traders to feed the POLS & Apparatchiks.

So what is it we have to do to defeat these Assclowns? … they have

instantaneous access to order flow, and we don’t … they have the FED backing

them up & giving them cover when needed, along with unlimited amounts of

capital they can borrow at almost ZERO cost … our capital against theirs is

miniscule by comparison … and they have vastly more powerful and faster

communications networks than you can imagine … if you think you can beat the

bank or HFT to the order, you are sadly delusional and mistaken … our only

chance is twofold … 1) only trade markets that have CONSISTENT above

average volatility [VIX] on a daily basis, thus giving a high probability of market

movement alone that helps us, and 2) beat them to the punch so they work for

us when screwing others that are late … we aren’t gonna beat them, but we’ll

beat the Hell out of others that are “deer in headlights” … throw in good risk

management, and it’s the formula for scalping and/or day trading success.

When first designing, and then implementing a trading model to accurately model

price behavior, it isn’t enough to concentrate on simple variables and expect

victory … trading is simple, it ain’t easy! … over these last weeks, I have spent

considerable time & effort to 1) scope markets in REAL TIME to gauge the

“scumbaggery & fuckery” of liquidity providers [LP’s] … not really an issue at a

brokerage house like “SIMPLE FX”, but a huge issue at a place like Turnkey … the

only markets at Turnkey that can be traded without getting screwed are EURUSD,

USDJPY, sometimes spot gold [XAUUSD], and sometimes WTI Crude Oil

… everything else, no matter what they say or tell you is gonna result in horrific

fills via slippage … SIMPLE FX shines in world stock indices, including the U.S.

majors, gold, & WTI Crude Oil … and 2) coming to understand & comprehend the

true nature of how complex trading manipulations behave via VIX, and the

inherent complexities of the psychology it has on traders caught on the wrong

side of any move … most days, both gold & crude oil are whipsawed around

exacerbated by those scared shitless if they don’t move and cut losses … things

can get ugly very quickly … and that shapes wrong attitudes of both bulls & bears

that get traders in deep, deep trouble.

At the heart of everything then, is first understanding what makes a move happen,

taking the position at the most optimal time, and then letting the banks or HFT

run with it and screw specs royally … and on the blast, we provide the liquidity

and give ‘em what they want … in addition, if the whole trading world can see the

trade, it ain’t happening … meaning simple variables following simple rules ain’t

gonna get r done … what you need is psychology turned into math, BEFORE

OTHERS SEE IT … yup, it’s complicated, but that doesn’t mean the

implementation of signals has to be … those are extremely SIMPLE.

Then there’s crypto & BTC … ain’t trading like it used to, that’s for sure! … well, at

least not consistently, where more often than not it’s dead rather than bat shit

crazy [BSC] … I’ll be back trading for “The Syndicate” this week in BTC.

Over the last week, I’ve made a minor change in one of the trading algorithm’s

components … in theory, it should get us to a trade slightly quicker and cut

drastically the times we get a signal that’s blown through … it’s why you always

challenge a trading model or algorithm in REAL TIME, and not simply look at past

data and assume everything is roses … depending on Turnkey spreads, we have

2 markets to trade … we’ll see how it goes.

Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected pairs this week.

click on table to enlarge

… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need sunglasses”!! 😎😎

… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas