“The world as a probability wave function of 0’s & 1’s!”
Although I mentioned it briefly in yesterday’s blog post, I should have pointed
out that today is another NFP Friday … oh joy, oh fun … and, as a result
trading should be rather subdued in Asia & Europe going into the 8:30 AM
EST. report. History as teacher shows “don’t look for much” until the report
… “well, the Asian session proved to be a dud, with gold putting in a sub $4
range, and there are only two conclusions to be drawn; 1) either the checks from
the “Chuckleheads” & Mrs. Wantanabe & Gal Pals have not cleared yet, or 2) it’s
NFP Friday and everyone is in “wait & see” mode”.
This is probably one of the least important jobs numbers this year … given the
elections on Tuesday, the meltdown & recovery in stocks, geopolitical
problems everywhere, and gold’s psychotic reaction to all of it this week, the
only thing out of the fairy tale report that matters is wage growth … “and if
history is any guide, we’ll get 5 minutes of blistering bullshit from the dealers,
where spikes from hell will appear, mystery ticks abound, the slippage circus is in
full swing, and in the final analysis it’s just another “let’s allow the banks to fuck
the public blind, and make a whole bunch of money from nothing”, like we do
every month, and then move on to the weekend” … 30 minutes after it’s over,
and markets die everywhere, as traders start to hit the exit gates … could be
wrong, but we’ll see.
So, in my haste yesterday to rip New York, I momentarily forgot to mention
that the Asian session & early Europe today, was more than likely, in fact
highly likely, to be a total bust … and after what we’ve seen this week, it’s not
a surprise to assume a lot of traders in Asia wanted no part of Friday.
That overnight volatility slowed markedly, was not a surprise to me … in fact,
given today is Friday, a pretty much useless NFP report is due and traders will
wait, then the weekend, and more than likely a dull Monday, which by the way
is what usually happens the Monday after an NFP report, are the major factors
in closing my C2 options trades yesterday, after the final push higher in gold
failed. “If volatility is going to fall off, cuz Friday is rather dull, then we got the
weekend, and Monday is boring as hell, followed by a Tuesday waiting for election
results, why would I want to be in a volatility position in options and lose 5 days of
time value, where my LONG high delta calls & puts evaporate like ice cubes on a
sidewalk in Summer, meanwhile my SHORT lower delta calls & puts that are
OTM [Out of the Money], lose less? … So, take the money and run, and liquidate
before the crowd realizes what is about to happen”.
Options have been, and always will be an extremely important tool for me in
“investing” … I didn’t say “trading”, cuz that’s a different dynamic. Of
course, you can wrap both up together if you wish, and use the underlying spot
and/or futures market and combo the two … but in reality, there’s no need to
do that and 1) force yourself with higher margins for positions, 2) pay “vig” for
no reason, and 3) not get any more protection for the effort in reducing risk
… “you simply create “synthetic” positions via options, that have the same effect
as being long/short spot or futures”.
The options trades that I had on in the C2 advisory signals service, allowed me
300 OZ. of exposure to gold, where my theoretical MAX RISK to expiration,
which was 12/21/2018 [about 7 weeks from now], was a little over $600. The
positions I had on, it didn’t matter which way the market moved … market
goes up, I make money … market goes down, I make money … all the market
can’t do is sit there and do nothing, day after day, week after week. So, in
essence, my cash risk on the positions was theoretically slightly over $600
… in reality it was a lot less, cuz if it’s not working, why would you just sit
there and watch money evaporate? … over a week or two, there probably was
around $100 - $150 of risk, if the market sat there and did nothing.
Well, we know the first 4 days of this week were anything but dull and boring
affairs … not that New York helped, cuz they didn’t do Mr. Jack Squat … in
any event, gold moved … and when it moved, I locked in profits by selling
premium in OTM options, that just became a helluva lot more expensive,
without adding a penny of risk … this allowed me to keep the other side on,
simply cuz I had no risk! … and bingo, bango, BOOM! … I get up the next
day and see gold $12+ higher on a long position in calls where I got zero risk
of loss … so again, I sell OTM calls higher than from where I’m long … later,
like I said before, when the party's over from the long side, I liquidated
everything.
Now, on the overall C2 portfolio value of about $10K, the gain from this trade
was $217 … not a fortune by any means, about a 2% gain … but on what was
“risked” in the trade, it comes to about a 35% gain … and this is the
important point, cuz in “trading”, you can’t get this total reduction in risk, like
in options, cuz you’re trading spot and/or futures, and you’re subject to
scumbag dealers, slippage, mystery ticks from hell, and stop hunts. “If you had
$600 in a trading account, what size trade would you need to generate that $217
gain? … and could you do it without blowing the account up, and maybe even
more”? … the answer, of course, is that you can’t do it, unless you consider
“hope” a trading strategy.
I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today … “if you don’t know options, it’s
time you got up off your ass and learned” … at its most basic level, it’s the
universe of probability wave functions, separating the 0’s & 1’s and making
sense of it all in an investment landscape … and to that end, I’m here to do two
[2] mighty important things; 1) educate you with helpful information if you
need/want it, and 2) make positioning options trades inside your investment
portfolio, via gold exposure, as easy for you as humanly possible by
introducing you to the C2 signals service.
I encourage everybody to read the “Information Tutorial”, along with “Options
Basics” & “30 Most Popular Strategies”, over in “Download Links”, in the right
hand column. All of these are short, to the point, and can bring any investor
“up to speed” quickly.
For those that want/need more, today I’m posting the “Options Directory” file
folder, over in “Download Links” … these books on options I highly
recommend for advanced investors, as they will “fill in the information gaps”
the 3 short files do not address … read online or download, they are all in
Adobe PDF. Enjoy!
My goal in establishing the C2 signals service, and abandoning the trading side
of gold futures is simple; “there are a helluva lot more investors utilizing options
in their portfolios than futures traders, it takes far fewer dollars with less risk in
options than futures, we have an ideal situation utilizing the ETF “GLD” for
options, rather than futures options, and C2 brokerage offers FREE options
commissions trading”.
I wanted to make the C2 signals service so cheap [$18/month, or 60 cents a
frickin’ day], everybody but a homeless person could afford it, AND give
people THREE [3] MONTHS FREE OPTION SIGNALS, to give them time to
bring themselves up to speed … either to set accounts up, follow the trades in
real time, and/or learn more about these investment derivatives in gold via
GLD … “three months FREE … how much time do you need? … even the dog
has signed up”! I’ll have more on this in Sunday’s blog update.
Turning to today’s gold market … overnight very quiet, & Europe as well
… some short sellers still getting somewhat squeezed from yesterday, but when
their buying is over the market drops some … range so far is tiny … everybody
waiting for the NFP report to be done and over at 8:30 AM EST. Here early, it
looks like the day’s range will be under $6, when the NFP report hits … a
perfect storm for scumbag bullion dealers to wipe the order books clean with
stops, maybe both sides, who knows … only sure thing is “there will be blood”.
Stocks open, and wasn’t that a “yawner”? … with all that’s going on around
the world, and here at home with elections coming up, it would’ve taken a
gigantic sigma miss one way or the other for this NFP report to move gold
… all we got was a little dealer “scumbaggery”, a new low by a couple of
pennies, and some very light stops hit off … 10 minutes after the NYSE open,
and markets everywhere, and in everything, are dead … all you really need to
know about today, can be summed up with my closing of my C2 options trades
yesterday … I saw it coming and took advantage while I could get better
liquidation prices.
Sunday night sees us open the week one hour behind New York, here in the
Caribbean … that makes it easier for me to trade XAUUSD in Asia and early
Europe, get some shut eye, and still be able to catch the NYSE open at 10:30
A.M., Paradise Island Time, and if need be, either trade more and/or place
some options trades on via the C2 signals service.
From where I’m sittin’ now, it looks 20 minutes into the NYSE day, like it’s
already over for gold … all I see are spikes from hell, followed by nothing
… I’m gonna give it to the European close to do something, but I’m not
hanging around for an afternoon “sleepfest” that sees nothing but bullion
dealer bullshit on a worthless Friday … after yesterday two things are evident;
1) order books got wiped out again, and 2) the “Great Bullion Wall of Selling”
is still there in the upper 1230’s to 1243 [the high from 10/26] … maybe
somebody can do it, but I’m skeptical today, and it doesn’t look like the
market has anywhere to go but to “chop” around yesterday’s close of about
1233 … we’ll see here shortly, but with a $6.71 range for the day, and Europe
closing in about 2 hours, it doesn’t look promising for any movement.
Europe’s closing now, and while the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] puts in
another performance, any and all new highs and/or lows for the day are
nothing more than dealer stop hunts … once the stops are out of the way, it’s a
straight ticket to hell the other direction … sadly, this is what New York has
become on so many trading days, I can’t count them all … truly a bucket
of shit.
One trade buy signal early today … PAMM up some bucks.
With the range as tight as it was, Asia & Europe didn’t have much room to
navigate … buy signal was good, it’s just that it refused to extend the range
higher and came back where I liquidated … that’s been it, and since the NFP
report at 8:30AM EST, gold has hit a new low, then went to a new high, and is
now threatening a new low again … all inside a $6 range, with the
accompanying spikes from hell both up/down … screw the longs, screw the
shorts, blow some stops out, and never really go anywhere in the process
… “oh, but the bullion dealers make out OK, and that’s all that matters
… right”?
No options advisory signals today on C2 … the C2 signals spreadsheet directly
below.
click to enlarge
Onto next week, where I’ll be starting to trade XAUUSD in Asia through early
to mid Europe … being an hour ahead of New York will most definitely help
the sleep schedule … how can it be any worse than the bullshit we’ve put up
with from New York? … ranges have been bigger with better volumes and
price action, so what’s not to like?
I’m outta here early today … price action sucks, and there is very little
volume, no liquidity, and it’s nothing but dealers and stops … want no part of
this on a Friday afternoon, cuz if you get caught in one of those spikes, there’s
no way to make it back without doing “stupid shit”. Until Sunday night, where
I’ll have a special blog post update … until then mi amigos
… Onward & Upward!!
PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.
click to enlarge
Have a great weekend everybody!!
-vegas
OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL, AS WELL AS OUR C2 OPTIONS ADVISORY
SERVICE. DETAILS IN “DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN
RIGHT HAND COLUMN. START YOUR JOURNEY FROM
WHERE YOU ARE AT TO “ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!
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