website header 2

website header 2

Friday, June 1, 2018

TWO “SURPRISE” MARKETS & MORE OIL!

“Just when you think all markets hold no more surprises!”

Has anybody seen the “Rally Protection Team” [RPT] slinking around the 
precious metals lately? More specifically, has anyone seen them since President 
Trump has been elected and taken office & Grandma Yellen has left the FED? 
“Bueller? … Bueller?” … how come with the gigantic U.S. dollar rally we’ve 
seen lately that has taken EURUSD, GBPUSD, and to a lesser extent the Yen, 
massively lower, we haven’t seen gold & silver get clubbed like baby seals 
during a Japanese whale hunt? You don’t read anymore on ZeroHedge [ZH] 
of a “mysterious” fat finger that came in and sold 30,000 - 100,000 gold futures 
contracts at the market and saw the gold price dump $15 - $50 within a second 
do you? Where has that BIS and/or FED shell company disappeared to?

Well, the answer is simple: “since 2012, both the Ruskies & the ChiComs have 
purchased record amounts of gold bullion and silver, in what can only be 
described as the largest transfer of wealth from West to East ever seen”! … And 
now that we finally have a President who isn’t a marxist/socialist and sees what 
the reality of the situation is, namely stopping the wholesale giving away of our 
gold reserves ... he’s stopped it! … cuz as I have said for at least the last 2 
years, both Russia & China are going to eventually do 2 things; 1) back their 
currencies with gold bullion, and 2) end the petrodollar and the world’s need 
for U.S. Dollars, thus turning the U.S. into an economic graveyard without 
firing a single shot. And if you need further proof, all you have to do is look to 
Shanghai, where Yuan backed crude oil trading has taken off, and 
profits/deliveries can either be taken or paid in gold bullion.

So, much like Jack Nicholson in “The Shining”, sticking his head through the 
door and announcing, “here’s Johnny!”, as he attempts to kill his wife, the 
precious metals [gold & silver] are at the initial stages of making a comeback 
from “Obama manipulative hell”, as it appears the “West” [meaning the U.S. 
particularly] is no longer interested in siphoning gold & silver to China & 
Russia at cheap prices anymore via futures manipulation to the downside 
“maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am, and the “Petro Yuan” I think 
proves my point”. And if the “devil” is coming back, an entire new generation 
of people are going to go “ga ga” over silver & gold in the months and years 
ahead.

Now, it’s going to take a gargantuan effort to get people interested in gold & 
silver again, particularly since millions have gone broke trading it over the last 
6 years, but never underestimate the power of a bull market to get people back 
into the fold. It’s not fully back yet, but I see signs that are most encouraging.

Gold, via XAUUSD is best traded via the CFD at Turnkey for 2 big reasons; 
1) the spread is about $0.06 - $0.12 most of the day and 2) the RT commission is 
about 2 ¼ cents per ounce at current price, so the net cost to trade gold is about 
the lowest anywhere. It’s not the vehicle of choice to position [long or short] 
over days or weeks, simply cuz the “vig” is approximately 900% higher than 
the futures price, and who wants to hand them that like they’re at “payday 
loan”.

Silver, on the other hand, is not suited for day trading or scalping, simply cuz 
it’s not as “active” as gold … you’re better off in gold as a scalper … however, 
to position a trade in silver over the week, it’s got the ideal “vig”. Specifically, 
per 1 lot [5,000 Oz.], the cost per day is $1.45 for longs, and $0.55 for shorts 
… remember, with a 1 lot, it’s $50 per penny, so these “vig” costs are “chump 
change” ... fractions of a penny when you add it up for the week!

So, where am I heading here? Well first, where I’m not heading … I’m not 
saying go trade gold & silver now … silver, I think if you’re willing to position 
it over the week, be out for the weekend, and then get back in when 
appropriate, can be done now in longer time frames like the M30 or HR1 
… gold, on the other hand, is still exhibiting “sloppy” trading action, with 
occasional days of good ranges, but right now it’s not consistent enough to be 
anybody’s primary market for trading … it needs work, but it’s getting better, 
and without FED or BIS manipulative intervention, once daily ranges improve, 
will be a viable market again.

For the most part, and it’s with some sadness that conditions have deteriorated 
to the point where I’m saying this, the entire FX arena, outside the precious 
metals, is nothing more than a manipulative graveyard that sees 1) abusive 
slippage, 2) abusive stop hunts, and 3) inconsistent ranges that make trading 
damn near impossible. Add to this, any time volatility inches up even slightly, 
the scumbag LP bank’s HAL9000 computers get reset for “mystery tick” fills 
and even larger slippage “baked into the cake”. It skews reward / risk ratios to 
the point where you can’t even recognize them any longer. And my main point 
here, is that I don’t see any improvement cuz the central banks are using both 
equity markets, bond markets, and now FX for policy implementation 
purposes … they feed the scumbag LP banks the info, the banks run the show, 
and when clueless Twits like Yoda Yellen retire [along very soon with Super 
Mario from the ECB], they get 7 digit “consulting” gigs with the TBTF 
scumbag LP banks … nice work if you can get it! 

I’m going to be changing the focus of the website to 1) trading crude oil 
… mostly WTI, but maybe some Brent thrown in when appropriate, 
2) secondarily gold trading at some point in the future, but like I said, it’s not 
quite ready yet, and 3) daily or weekly positioning in silver for those who desire 
coverage of slightly longer time horizons on their trades. I know, that this is 
where the future is, and that FX, stock indices, and interest rates are, for the 
most part, manipulative dead markets looking for victims … where banks run 
the show, and manipulate the shit out of the market for their own benefit, and 
at trader expense.

Make no mistake, without the FED or BIS manipulating the precious metals, 
HSBC & JPM, the 2 biggest short sellers of precious metals, and favorite “pals” 
of the FED & BIS, aren’t gonna stick their collective heads under the guillotine 
without tacit government manipulation on the horizon to bail them out when 
prices fall and they are the buyers from the public’s sell stops … ain’t gonna 
happen. So, without that scenario, the premise of sticking either gold or silver 
into the FX mix, along with EUR, GBP, & JPY becomes moot. “Oh, the times & 
paradigms of trading are a changin’ aren’t they”?

Turning to today’s WTI crude oil market … “well, that escalated quickly to the 
downside, didn’t it”? … only problem is, all of it came after 1 P.M. on a frickin’ 
Friday, bumped up against very strong trend line support on the daily 
candlestick chart going back to September, 2017. Directly below, the WTI daily 
candlestick with both support trend lines in white.


Only one trade today … PAMM up slightly, a few bucks, nothing significant.

Problem that today presented, was I got to the starting gate too late for the 
trend change on the trading algorithm this morning … I’ve been trying to 
figure the optimum time to start, and starting Monday, I’ll be at the screen 
right around 5 A.M. EST [09:00 server time] … that should give me enough 
leeway to catch the first trend change OR a continuance of the overnight trend 
before it takes off … today sees me get to the screen about 45 minutes too late, 
and that cost us a great trade.

The only other signal came later around 12:10 server time, where the 
algorithm gave a “weak” sell signal, indicating a scalp trade … if I had held on 
for more, there was a few pennies in it, but it turned thereafter and would have 
caused problems … so, on “weak” signals, you have to make the trade a scalp, 
and when momentum in it slows, you liquidate. And that was it, until 5 hours 
later, after some mind numbing “chop” inside a 35 - 40 cent range, at 
approximately 17:10 server time [1:10 P.M. EST], where the algorithm gave a 
“strong” sell signal … problem is, it’s Friday and it’s after 1 P.M., not exactly a 
scenario where you’re looking for a trade … it goes bad, and the scumbag LP 
starts to increase the spread, and you got no chance to make any loss back 
heading into a Friday … well, don’t deny the algorithm its due, that trade saw 
price drop about 80 cents, and would have been another great trade … so, on 
the day, 3 algo signals; 2 “strong” sell, 1 “weak” sell … first one I missed, the 
second one I took, and the third I passed due to time constraints; really, only 
the first one ticks me off some, cuz I should have been there but wasn’t.

Again today, well over a $1 range, and the algorithm performed as well as you 
would have wanted it … spreads today disappointing, especially in Brent, as 
the scumbag LP’s held it at 6 -7 cents all day long … “seriously, who the hell is 
gonna pay this “LP tax” that would make Vito Corleone blush with envy? 
… WTI was between 4 - 5, and on all three signals, trades could have been done 
with the spread at 4 cents … acceptable, but not optimal”.

Monday’s trade is certainly gonna be interesting, as it looks like today sees the 
bullish uptrend line broken from the last 9 months … does it rally back above 
support, or does it break hard on stops and liquidations and turn into a mini 
bloodbath? … "well, either way, it’s what crude oil does day-in, day-out, and it’s 
non stop rock & roll, and now all I gotta do is get my ass out of bed on time and 
trade it from where I should have done today". Either way, we’ll be there to 
hopefully catch the action from the algorithm … until Monday mi amigos 
… I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

  


 
















 

No comments:

Post a Comment