“Just when you think all markets hold no more surprises!”
Has anybody seen the “Rally Protection Team” [RPT] slinking around the
precious metals lately? More specifically, has anyone seen them since President
Trump has been elected and taken office & Grandma Yellen has left the FED?
… “Bueller? … Bueller?” … how come with the gigantic U.S. dollar rally we’ve
seen lately that has taken EURUSD, GBPUSD, and to a lesser extent the Yen,
massively lower, we haven’t seen gold & silver get clubbed like baby seals
during a Japanese whale hunt? You don’t read anymore on ZeroHedge [ZH]
of a “mysterious” fat finger that came in and sold 30,000 - 100,000 gold futures
contracts at the market and saw the gold price dump $15 - $50 within a second
do you? Where has that BIS and/or FED shell company disappeared to?
Well, the answer is simple: “since 2012, both the Ruskies & the ChiComs have
purchased record amounts of gold bullion and silver, in what can only be
described as the largest transfer of wealth from West to East ever seen”! … And
now that we finally have a President who isn’t a marxist/socialist and sees what
the reality of the situation is, namely stopping the wholesale giving away of our
gold reserves ... he’s stopped it! … cuz as I have said for at least the last 2
years, both Russia & China are going to eventually do 2 things; 1) back their
currencies with gold bullion, and 2) end the petrodollar and the world’s need
for U.S. Dollars, thus turning the U.S. into an economic graveyard without
firing a single shot. And if you need further proof, all you have to do is look to
Shanghai, where Yuan backed crude oil trading has taken off, and
profits/deliveries can either be taken or paid in gold bullion.
So, much like Jack Nicholson in “The Shining”, sticking his head through the
door and announcing, “here’s Johnny!”, as he attempts to kill his wife, the
precious metals [gold & silver] are at the initial stages of making a comeback
from “Obama manipulative hell”, as it appears the “West” [meaning the U.S.
particularly] is no longer interested in siphoning gold & silver to China &
Russia at cheap prices anymore via futures manipulation to the downside
… “maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am, and the “Petro Yuan” I think
proves my point”. And if the “devil” is coming back, an entire new generation
of people are going to go “ga ga” over silver & gold in the months and years
Now, it’s going to take a gargantuan effort to get people interested in gold &
silver again, particularly since millions have gone broke trading it over the last
6 years, but never underestimate the power of a bull market to get people back
into the fold. It’s not fully back yet, but I see signs that are most encouraging.
Gold, via XAUUSD is best traded via the CFD at Turnkey for 2 big reasons;
1) the spread is about $0.06 - $0.12 most of the day and 2) the RT commission is
about 2 ¼ cents per ounce at current price, so the net cost to trade gold is about
the lowest anywhere. It’s not the vehicle of choice to position [long or short]
over days or weeks, simply cuz the “vig” is approximately 900% higher than
the futures price, and who wants to hand them that like they’re at “payday
Silver, on the other hand, is not suited for day trading or scalping, simply cuz
it’s not as “active” as gold … you’re better off in gold as a scalper … however,
to position a trade in silver over the week, it’s got the ideal “vig”. Specifically,
per 1 lot [5,000 Oz.], the cost per day is $1.45 for longs, and $0.55 for shorts
… remember, with a 1 lot, it’s $50 per penny, so these “vig” costs are “chump
change” ... fractions of a penny when you add it up for the week!
So, where am I heading here? Well first, where I’m not heading … I’m not
saying go trade gold & silver now … silver, I think if you’re willing to position
it over the week, be out for the weekend, and then get back in when
appropriate, can be done now in longer time frames like the M30 or HR1
… gold, on the other hand, is still exhibiting “sloppy” trading action, with
occasional days of good ranges, but right now it’s not consistent enough to be
anybody’s primary market for trading … it needs work, but it’s getting better,
and without FED or BIS manipulative intervention, once daily ranges improve,
will be a viable market again.
For the most part, and it’s with some sadness that conditions have deteriorated
to the point where I’m saying this, the entire FX arena, outside the precious
metals, is nothing more than a manipulative graveyard that sees 1) abusive
slippage, 2) abusive stop hunts, and 3) inconsistent ranges that make trading
damn near impossible. Add to this, any time volatility inches up even slightly,
the scumbag LP bank’s HAL9000 computers get reset for “mystery tick” fills
and even larger slippage “baked into the cake”. It skews reward / risk ratios to
the point where you can’t even recognize them any longer. And my main point
here, is that I don’t see any improvement cuz the central banks are using both
equity markets, bond markets, and now FX for policy implementation
purposes … they feed the scumbag LP banks the info, the banks run the show,
and when clueless Twits like Yoda Yellen retire [along very soon with Super
Mario from the ECB], they get 7 digit “consulting” gigs with the TBTF
scumbag LP banks … nice work if you can get it!
I’m going to be changing the focus of the website to 1) trading crude oil
… mostly WTI, but maybe some Brent thrown in when appropriate,
2) secondarily gold trading at some point in the future, but like I said, it’s not
quite ready yet, and 3) daily or weekly positioning in silver for those who desire
coverage of slightly longer time horizons on their trades. I know, that this is
where the future is, and that FX, stock indices, and interest rates are, for the
most part, manipulative dead markets looking for victims … where banks run
the show, and manipulate the shit out of the market for their own benefit, and
at trader expense.
Make no mistake, without the FED or BIS manipulating the precious metals,
HSBC & JPM, the 2 biggest short sellers of precious metals, and favorite “pals”
of the FED & BIS, aren’t gonna stick their collective heads under the guillotine
without tacit government manipulation on the horizon to bail them out when
prices fall and they are the buyers from the public’s sell stops … ain’t gonna
happen. So, without that scenario, the premise of sticking either gold or silver
into the FX mix, along with EUR, GBP, & JPY becomes moot. “Oh, the times &
paradigms of trading are a changin’ aren’t they”?
Turning to today’s WTI crude oil market … “well, that escalated quickly to the
downside, didn’t it”? … only problem is, all of it came after 1 P.M. on a frickin’
Friday, bumped up against very strong trend line support on the daily
candlestick chart going back to September, 2017. Directly below, the WTI daily
candlestick with both support trend lines in white.
Only one trade today … PAMM up slightly, a few bucks, nothing significant.
Problem that today presented, was I got to the starting gate too late for the
trend change on the trading algorithm this morning … I’ve been trying to
figure the optimum time to start, and starting Monday, I’ll be at the screen
right around 5 A.M. EST [09:00 server time] … that should give me enough
leeway to catch the first trend change OR a continuance of the overnight trend
before it takes off … today sees me get to the screen about 45 minutes too late,
and that cost us a great trade.
The only other signal came later around 12:10 server time, where the
algorithm gave a “weak” sell signal, indicating a scalp trade … if I had held on
for more, there was a few pennies in it, but it turned thereafter and would have
caused problems … so, on “weak” signals, you have to make the trade a scalp,
and when momentum in it slows, you liquidate. And that was it, until 5 hours
later, after some mind numbing “chop” inside a 35 - 40 cent range, at
approximately 17:10 server time [1:10 P.M. EST], where the algorithm gave a
“strong” sell signal … problem is, it’s Friday and it’s after 1 P.M., not exactly a
scenario where you’re looking for a trade … it goes bad, and the scumbag LP
starts to increase the spread, and you got no chance to make any loss back
heading into a Friday … well, don’t deny the algorithm its due, that trade saw
price drop about 80 cents, and would have been another great trade … so, on
the day, 3 algo signals; 2 “strong” sell, 1 “weak” sell … first one I missed, the
second one I took, and the third I passed due to time constraints; really, only
the first one ticks me off some, cuz I should have been there but wasn’t.
Again today, well over a $1 range, and the algorithm performed as well as you
would have wanted it … spreads today disappointing, especially in Brent, as
the scumbag LP’s held it at 6 -7 cents all day long … “seriously, who the hell is
gonna pay this “LP tax” that would make Vito Corleone blush with envy?
… WTI was between 4 - 5, and on all three signals, trades could have been done
with the spread at 4 cents … acceptable, but not optimal”.
Monday’s trade is certainly gonna be interesting, as it looks like today sees the
bullish uptrend line broken from the last 9 months … does it rally back above
support, or does it break hard on stops and liquidations and turn into a mini
bloodbath? … "well, either way, it’s what crude oil does day-in, day-out, and it’s
non stop rock & roll, and now all I gotta do is get my ass out of bed on time and
trade it from where I should have done today". Either way, we’ll be there to
hopefully catch the action from the algorithm … until Monday mi amigos
… I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!
Have a great weekend everybody!
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