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Tuesday, June 5, 2018

FREIGHT TRAIN DOWN THE MOUNTAIN

“The country sorely needs more Jed’s than ever before!”

“... well, the first thing ya know ‘ol Jed’s a millionaire … kinfolk said, Jed move 
away from there … said Californy is the place ya ought to be … so they loaded up 
the truck and moved to Beverly … Hills that is, swimmin’ pools, movie stars 
… que up the banjo Skippy”!

As obvious a “slap in the face” to the protest movements of the 60’s as the 
"Beverly Hillbillies" was to a then Libtard Intelligentsia by a conservative 
Hollywood , fast forward 50+ years into the present, and the Elite Twits deserve 
it even more … and wouldn’t you know it, the premise of Jed’s ongoing 
transformation from “country hick” to “progressive gentlemen” , that by the way 
failed miserably, was based on crude oil. 

Which brings me to present day trading … “when the crude oil freight train 
starts coming down the mountain, look the hell out … anybody that attempts to try 
and sell highs and/or buy lows is in for a rude awakening, cuz the freight train 
pays no attention to your donkey on the tracks, with your hand up shouting stop 
… yea, good luck with that”.

And so, in today’s world of central bank dominance in practically everything 
labeled “financial trading”, the world’s big money, hot money, and of course 
criminal money, finds its way to the only market in town with no rules & no 
intervention … you got the Arabs of course, the Ruskies, the Chicoms, every 
tinpot dictator in the world that pumps a barrel out of the ground, the 
Japanese Yakuza, and the European underworld in all its glory trading this 
stuff cuz they understand all the other markets are manipulated against them 
… it’s the old pit traded gold, pit traded Swiss Franc, and pit traded SP500, all 
wrapped into one, where the entire world is the trading pit, and each and every 
day it’s a new experiment in terror if you’re on the wrong side of these freight 
train moves … cuz day in, day out, it’s the only thing moving the banks don’t 
have their sticky fingers in … and literally, the data bears this out statistically, 
“you’re only hope is to map statistical momentum and be there at the shifts, 
and/or be there for the expected retracements … everything else is a loser, where 
even in the best case scenario you’re looking at a coin flip”.

Turning to today’s crude oil market … “round up the usual suspects for a 
headline that not only is meaningless, it was reported weeks ago and was a major 
determinant in the WTI market breaking from the low 70’s to the current $65 per 
barrel area … that was almost $7 ago … and was reported by Bloomberg this 
morning as “real news” and gapped the WTI market 30+ cents per barrel lower in 
less than a second … and that tripped the algorithm to sell mode, and away we go 
… and the headline was, the U.S. asked the Saudi’s to pump an extra million 
barrels per day to increase supply and offset anything being held up by Iran”.

Only one trade today … PAMM up slightly, $20 before RT commissions.

I’m up this morning, and like I said in an earlier blog, I’m at the ready by 
5 A.M EST for the crude market … there was a change in slope on the M5 
from positive to negative after a small down M5 and then that was followed by 
a string of 5 very small M5 candlesticks to the upside … once we got to the 5th 
candle close, price is literally sitting on top of the trade signal to get short at 
65.01 … and I’m thinking, “well, action is still very slow and lethargic, but if 
price breaks 64.97 - 96, I’m entering a short position via the algorithm” … and 
literally a few seconds later, price goes from 65.01 to 64.70 in a waterfall  
“Thelma & Louise” style and it leaves me in the “WTF was that!” mode … cuz 
I’m not selling a 30 cent break in the hole to get short … and in the process, it 
isn’t until much later I finally get a “strong” sell signal from the algorithm to 
get short … problem here though, is that the Brent market is hitting a new low 
for the day, and it’s range is almost $2 per barrel, and WTI isn’t anywhere close 
to the low at 64.17 … a couple of days ago this spread is at $11.50+ Brent over 
WTI; now it’s at $9.70-ish and I can see the unwind of longs in the spread and 
that means support for WTI, which I’m short.

So, Brent is breaking much harder than WTI, and I’m currently up just a few 
cents in my short, which is having a helluva time going lower … EXIT 
QUESTION: “When this ends, how likely is it gonna be for me to be happy with 
my exit price”? To ask the question is to answer it! So, not much in this trade as 
I liquidated on a down tick.

Now, the market turns, and for most of the turn, it’s an ugly trade for the longs 
cuz shorts as of late control the agenda … and when we get some “strong” buy 
signals, they for sure don’t go very far … that takes us into the New York 
afternoon, where the scumbag LP banks have “jacked” the WTI spread to 5 - 6 
cents for no reason as buy stops are hit off as shorts are trapped and paying up 
“well, ain’t gonna trade it with a 5 - 6 cent spread, cuz if you do you are 
begging to lose money” … and for some reason, while WTI gets “jacked”, Brent 
stays at 4 cents, so I switch my focus over to that complex … a few pennies to be 
made just before 2 P.M. EST on a buy signal, but it’s late in the day, and 
additionally at 4:30 P.M. EST today we get API crude oil inventories, which will 
unleash holy hell on anybody hanging around at this time wanting to play 
“crude oil roulette”.

A good bit of spotty bad luck today via the Bloomberg headline, which messed 
up a potentially great move lower … still made something, but there will be days 
like this; not every day can be $2 range straight up or down, we have to handle 
the “chop” as well … “hey, it is what it is … welcome to volatility mi amigo 
… now fugetaboutit and move on, cuz it’s what you have to do in this complex, or 
it literally will drive you insane and into the nearest rubber room”. And again, the 
oil algo is dead spot on with the calls. And for those wondering, I’m working on 
publishing the algorithm “soon”, meaning in the next couple of weeks … it’s not 
“rocket science”, it simply takes time to explain well and do right … trust me, 
it’s worth the wait. 

And now, it’s time to take the “Ice Cream King” to the DQ for some soft serve 
vanilla with whipped cream, his favorite … and then, time for a cold one before 
dinner, as I bang out a few more words before bed into the crude oil manual 
… I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
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