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Friday, June 15, 2018

DEFINING “BAT GUANO CRAZY” & ITS IMPORTANCE

“Said no trader EVER!”

It’s critically important you fully understand the premise behind yesterday’s 
blog post, and the definition I gave the term “force volatility” … to recap, it’s 
the tremendous force [usually, but not always, buying from short covering or 
selling from long liquidation] unleashed in the market in an extremely short 
amount of time [literally seconds], that essentially “warps” the days volatility 
sharply higher relatively compared to other time increments in the day. 
“Proving what I have said for like forever, that some M1’s are more valuable 
than others in giving information, and the corollary that not all M1’s are created 
equal”.

Equally important is understanding how the daily range plays into all of this, 
and why exactly that information is important to utilize in our trading to give us 
a MAX trading profit advantage over the market … “the interplay between 
“average daily range” and “force volatility” are like 2 vector fields exerting force 
[buying and/or selling] on each other, and when they line up, the fireworks are a 
foregone conclusion”! Now, different markets have different personalities 
… we all know this, this isn’t some big secret … all the 5 markets I identified in 
yesterday’s blog [Brent, WTI, DAX30, NDX100, & XAUUSD], that the website 
will now follow, have vastly different “average daily ranges”, and they react 
differently to the specific “force volatilities” in their each respective market. 
However, just because one market has slightly less “average daily range” values 
than another right now [e.g. XAUUSD (spot gold)], doesn’t mean it’s not a good 
candidate for trading, simply cuz given the spread & RT commission being the 
very best there is available to trade, the way the market trades and jumps all 
over the place gives it a very big advantage over other markets. In the final 
analysis, it’s the “interplay” between these 2 forces that makes a market 
attractive.

You’ll notice, that there aren’t any FX pairs on our list, nor other stock indices
… quite frankly, after voluminous analysis, they didn’t make the “math cut” 
for one or all of the following reasons; 1) too large spread [FX crosses & stock 
indices, specifically the SP500 CFD], 2) lack of volatility, both in consistently 
high daily range & more importantly, lack of significant “force volatility” off 
retracements and/or highs/lows, 3) market action spread too evenly over a 24 
hour day, and 4) significant slippage & other “scumbaggery” issues from the 
scumbag LP banks that consistently destroys profitability.

In all 5 markets, Turnkey has either the very best “net cost” to trade, or damn 
close … over the entirety of the 5 markets taken as a group, nobody else comes 
close to being on the same plane as they’re on for lowest “net cost” to trade.  
On the ECN MT4 platform, their $2 per $100,000 notional amount round turn 
[RT] commission is the lowest I’ve seen in any brokerage house. 

With WTI & Brent Crude Oil, there is always the wild card variable of “what 
will the scumbag LP’s set the HAL9000 spread settings at? … will they be at their 
supposed 3 cent level, or will greed take over like it sometimes does [today for 
instance] and they feel the need to “jack” spreads by over 50+%, simply cuz they 
can? … and yes, you can take your … “duh, market conditions duh”, bullshit and 
go pound sand … am not trading it with a 5 or 5+ cent spread, I don’t care what it 
does”! If the scumbag LP’s behave themselves, there is no better market.

With the 2 stock indices, DAX30 & NDX100, you get slightly higher than 
average daily ranges, and you get a much more active order “flow” to the trade 
action … this more than makes up for a sizeable range every day, as the 
number of trade opportunities that exhibit “force volatility” are higher in these 
2 markets. For NDX100, there is also the “80-10-10 rule”, which I get into in the 
manual, that is not present in the DAX30 or other markets. Slippage, which is a 
very big problem in the DOW30 & SP500 CFD’s when they exhibit any 
volatility, isn’t a problem in these 2 markets. So, if you like the stock indices, 
these are the two to trade, and again, Turnkey has the very best [lowest] spreads 
you’ll find anywhere.

Gold, for its part, has made its way back into my “good graces” as a trading 
instrument for 2 very big reasons; 1) using “force volatility” as the premise for 
the gold algorithm, and looking at the trading action through the prism of the 
lowest spread on the planet [usually between $0.06 - $0.13 per Oz.], the  
“trading action” is exemplary … even with somewhat subdued daily ranges the 
last couple of years, by historical standards approximately 30% - 50% lower on 
a percentage basis of the price than previous decades, the amount of tradeable 
action on any given day is probably the highest of the 5 markets … throw into 
this equation a “net cost” to trade that = approximately $0.08 - $0.13 per Oz., 
and while others around the world fight the spread, I [you] can be taking a 
profit. 2) As far as gold is concerned, now that President Empty Suit is not in 
office anymore AND Grandma Yellen is gone from the FED, the outright sell 
 manipulation of gold from the FED & the BIS, via the “Rally Protection Team” 
[RPT] is now gone from the market … from all outward appearances, the days 
of the “fat finger” selling 30,000 - 50,000+ gold futures contracts at the market, 
and sending price lower by $15 - $50+ in a nanosecond IS OVER. This has 
made for better two-way action, and I expect volumes and trading interest to 
pick up in the weeks/months/years ahead of us.

I briefly touched on this yesterday, but it bears repeating cuz of the significant 
importance it has on the specific markets I have highlighted for trading. Briefly, 
1) how you view a market, 2) how you trade a market, and 3) the logical 
mathematical principles everything hinges on, and allows for the highest 
“probability of profit” trades you will ever get the chance of making … and it all 
is premised on what I have dubbed “force volatility”. Getting right down to the 
“nitty gritty” of the matter, the “meat” of the situation, where the “rubber hits the 
road”, and where it’s “fish or cut bait” time, the truth is simple when you can 
properly analyze the data over years and years, and then it sits there and stares 
you in the face and says … “hey, you payin’ attention? … you see this? … you 
can’t ignore this if you’re tellin’ me making money matters to you … I mean, if 
you trade for other reasons then fine … but if cold hard cash is the goal, you have 
to make wholesale changes of long held beliefs, cuz for a myriad of reasons they 
aren’t valid anymore … if you wanna be the dinosaur and die, then fine 
… otherwise adapt and prosper”! 

Turning to today’s Brent Crude Oil market … “well, that whole tariff thing 
escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it”? What started out as a pretty dull 
day, turned into a “barn burner” on the downside, and the panic created in a 
number of markets by the whole “China tariff” story seemed to me to be the 
catalyst … and when panic sets in, look the hell out.

Only one trade today … PAMM up slightly more than 0.1%.

We got way more than 1 trade signal in Brent today … why only 1 trade? EASY 
PEEZEE: “after the early range had been set around $1.18 per barrel, the market 
bottomed and then rallied hard about 80 cents … from that cliff, Brent went 
“Thelma & Louise”, and the break of the old low set off sell stops, and the 
scumbag LP’s immediately raised the spread to 5 - 6 cents, thus making the entire 
complex untradeable after the first trade signal… since then, hours ago, the 
spread has stayed out at 5 cents, so screw ‘em … pure greed has set in, and if you 
trade this with that kind of spread, you’re nuts”. And, like I said before, I’m not 
interested in there “duh, market conditions, duh” horseshit, which they hand out 
every frickin’ time the market starts to move and move hard … they’re liars 
and thieves … we all know this, so no surprise there, and the only thing you can 
do to get there moronic attention is to not trade it and make them suffer a loss 
of revenue … that’s all they understand. All told, there were about 6 more 
instances where I got a trade signal … every one profitable as best as I could 
tell, but a couple that might have been “iffy” with a 5 - 6 cent spread. Not worth 
it, and it ain’t gonna find me tradin’ it!

I was planning on making a special blog post on Sunday night regarding 
XAUUSD [spot gold] … however, given the fact the scumbag LP’s froze us out 
of Brent for a sizeable portion of the move down in price today, currently 
showing a $2.93 range [almost a 4% move!], with an idiotic 5 cent spread, now 
seems like a good time to announce that when these morons “jack” the spreads, 
I’ll simply start to trade gold instead. I’m up at the European open, and it’s 
about 4 hours from the prime market in gold … if spreads stay at 3 cents in 
Brent, no problem … but if spreads get “jacked”, like what happened today, 
Brent can take a hike, and I can seamlessly go right to gold. “Anybody see gold 
spreads get “jacked” today when SHTF on the downside, on the tariff panic? 
… No, me neither, cuz they stayed right in that $0.06 - $0.13 per Oz. variable 
range the entire time … all during the $27+ range, they never wavered … only the 
assclowns in oil seem to think it’s acceptable to play the “7-11 robbery game”, and 
try and walk away with a few extra bucks at customer expense”.

So, a few comments on our favorite yellow “pet rock”, since there’s an excellent 
chance come Monday I’ll be trading it … as Zero Hedge [ZH] has noted, today 
has seen massive volume on the downside, estimated at 250,000 futures 
contracts in the last 4 hours, worth some $39 billion … all told, so far a $27+ 
range, which is far above recent norms. “My lips to God’s ears … let these ranges 
stay and grow! … well, I can dream can’t I”? Again, I will repeat, that with a 
spread most times tighter than the futures market, and absent government 
manipulation, this is a great “trading” market utilizing the “force volatility” 
algorithm … forget that “the trend is your friend” BS from the daily or weekly 
candlestick chart … as another article from ZH notes today, market forecasting 
is D.E.A.D. … all that matters is “force volatility”, and mapping it & capturing 
it is what the algorithm does extremely well, and gold is one of the best markets 
to do it in … so, get ready for some gold trading, cuz you know this isn’t the last 
time the scumbag LP’s in Brent are going to “jack” the spread.

All told, today would have seen some nice profits if the crude oil LP’s hadn’t 
exploded the spreads … no matter, we still did Ok and tomorrow’s another day. 
I’m gonna try and get the comprehensive manual done this weekend, so that 
everyone can have it by the time Monday rolls around, but I got a lot of writing 
to do between now and then … more likely, it will be available by the end of 
next weekend … we’ll see how it goes. And with that, I’m outta here … until 
Sunday night mi amigos, where I’ll have some stats on our new 5 markets and 
maybe some other stuff as well … until then … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM Spreadsheet directly below. 


 Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

 

  



 








 

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