How do the silk suits that are paid millions, almost always miss by sigma
degrees these “Whiz Kid” numbers on jobs, inflation, and everything else?
… today’s CPI print a “bigly & yuge” miss to the upside, where everybody and
their brother’s pet monkey were whispering lower inflation … Whoops!, our bad
… and the “Muppets” get slaughtered again … which is why, in case you haven’t
figured it out yet, over the course of my career I NEVER TRADE NEWS.
FREIGHT TRAIN MARKETS ALIVE AND WELL TODAY with the CPI miss to the
upside, and none better at steamrolling traders than USDJPY once it gets rolling
… the trade literally blindsided those being wrong on the trade … and that leads to
today’s approximate 300 PIP range.
And man-O-man does this shit move … reminds me of Bitcoin before its collapse
… let the clusterfark begin post CPI … USDJPY “freight trains” harder and faster
than either EURUSD & GBPUSD, and it can take some getting used to … overall, it
moves faster, corrects stronger, and lends itself to more reversals, and if anything
is gonna be called “The Widow Maker”, it ain’t Cable but USDJPY, especially now
that the “Vix Genie” is out of the bottle and the BOJ is as insane as everybody
knew it was, but it’s kinda “official” now, now that they’ve quadrupled down on
stupidity with QE INFINITY.
Today’s trading a lesson in total clusterfark logistics, and even though post CPI
the range was around 80 PIPS, there was plenty of stupidity to go around the
table a few times … and speaking of stupidity, then there’s my journey today,
where for the very first time ever, instead of liquidating a position, I inadvertently
doubled up the position … less than a minute later, I’m wondering why I got 2
open orders … and cuz the universe is the way that it is, that mistake cost us
… other multiple trades dug us out of that hole, but it is what it is … I’m still
wondering how it happened, cuz I’ve never made that mistake before.
All-in-all, as the dust settles on multiple algorithm USDJPY signals today, the
TURNKEY PAMM IS DOWN SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 0.1% … and trust me, that’s a
“victory” … but while at times I can’t seem to tie my own shoes without fucking
up, the trading algorithm is pure “gold bars” … yes, every so often there will be a
“false positive” that sneaks into the mix, but that can and is easily made up with
subsequent trades … as long as trading action is not a “chopfest”, meaning the
HULL and VIDYA lines are NOT going sideways but have “slope”, and as long as
the “trading Ratio” [TR] is > 3.0, it’s almost impossible to lose money overall,
unless of course you’re an idiot and can’t tell the difference between buy/sell
buttons and the liquidate position button … and who’s that fucking stupid?
… good thing there aren’t any mirrors in the study where I trade!
Fills and latency OK today, with minor slippage which is to be expected given the
news flow and the range, so no great complaints there … and so here I sit, both
the Mrs. & “Miss Gimpy” [along with the dog who won’t even look at me], giving
me “if looks could kill”, I woulda been dead hours ago, and when it comes to
money and trading P/L, nobody is more demanding than the Mrs. … one thing I
would like to add, though, is that I’m gonna extend trading hours for USDJPY into
the New York afternoon to about 2 PM EST - 3PM EST, if action stays consistently
active, and today that’s been the case … this ain’t the “old” sleepy USDJPY
market, and my feelings aside about New York afternoons when it comes to this
market, I feel like I’m somewhat calling things prematurely and in the process
giving money away when the algo signals are pure gold … as a result, look for
blog posts around 3 PM EST - 4 PM EST each day.
I’m also gonna change my approach to trading hours, trying to at least get some
exposure to the Asian session, where this stuff moves the greatest [at least
lately] and gives off some great algo signals, and take it from there and play it
by ear as to how long I stay up before some shuteye, and into the U.S. session.
Outside of my “dyslexic moment”, the algorithm is everything I thought it could
be in modeling price behavior for a volatile market … and while we don’t need
300 PIP ranges, as long as it moves, and it has been, the algorithm has been there
to call the correct price behavior CONSISTENTLY OVER THE DAY … and while I’m
pissed at myself for being a klutz, the money value can easily be made up shortly
… may the BOJ remain insane forever! … sooooo looking forward to tomorrow’s
trading action, you have no idea! … volumes go higher, and it’s time to
“make hay” in USDJPY … GiddyUp.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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