They may not have cared yesterday, but it’s a new day back from drinking &
partying over in the Pacific Rim, and USDJPY is back to the “lightning strikes”
followed by “crickets”, and the blowing up the 20 Day Range MA, even before the
sun comes up in New York … “Here we F-ing go again with this horseshit!” … the
day hasn’t even started yet, and here we are with an almost 200 PIP range, leaving
us with a “probability of event” that the range goes higher still being very low,
certainly well below 5% … like those odds, you’ll love Las Vegas!
And the way things are headed, the monetary Dopes over at the BOJ, headed by
“Peter Pan” [I think I can!] Kuroda could care less, convinced by insanity, that a
depreciating YEN [USDJPY goes HIGHER] going towards ZERO is somehow in
the country’s best interest … like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and of course Weimar
Germany from 100 years ago, just look at how “prosperous” they became from
hyperinflation and a rush towards a depreciating currency … but, “this time it’s
different” goes the mantra … sure, sure it is … you people in Japan have my
sympathies!
USDJPY sitting now at 142, and charts become useless at this point, cuz you got
to go back to pre electronic trading, back into the 20th century pre 1998 to see a
lower YEN … a much different time and place for trading that doesn’t exist today
… in other words, “uncharted territory” … “gosh Columbus, you really think
there’s land out there, or do we fall off the end of the earth first!?” … and that’s
where the YEN is right now, cuz nobody has a clue where this ends or how low
it can go … however, rest assured, if the same Idiots are left unchecked and still
in charge in Japan, we ain’t anywhere near a bottom!
And so, here we go again, faced with the two biggest problems associated with
this kind of move in USDJPY, one that we’ve seen repeatedly over these last
months that infuriates the shit out of traders on this side of the globe, and gets
me to ask the not so rhetorical question, “what, I gotta move to fucking Thailand
to trade now?” … 1) where’s new buying gonna come from today AFTER a 200
PIP move higher, and 2) taking all trading days into consideration,, we’re now
OVER 150%+ of the 20 Day Range MA for this week in USDJPY, so what’s the
approximate probability the range can be extended higher still? … as to the first,
not many people want to buy a 200 PIP rally, with New York not having even
started yet, and second the probability of an extended range from here is small
… very small … you’re pissing into the wind of a CAT5 hurricane and not
expecting to get hit if you think your chances of success look good … not saying
it can’t happen, just saying it’s gotta very rotten track record! … if we can get
decent corrective activity of something on the order of 30+ PIPS or so, buy
signals would more than likely make sense … 5 PIPS off the high and we’re sitting
here, not so much … and remember, scalping this shit at Turnkey is next to
impossible, so there has to be more potential meat on the bone in a trade to get
me to bite on a theoretical buy signal … otherwise, what sense does it make for
a trade hoping, wishing, and eventually praying when it doesn’t work, that some
kind of Keno miracle bails your ass out of a jam? … is pure luck now a trading
strategy??
It simply is what it is, and unless a trader on this side of the globe is willing to
become a meth addict and trade 24/5, these “lightning strike moves” will happen
in abundance when you’re away from your machine or asleep … and while it
frustrates the living shit out of me to no end, there isn’t anything anybody can
do about it, other than move to the Pacific Rim and trade there … put the
“big girl panties” on and just deal with it and move on.
Now up 8 days in a row including today, the buying avalanches from the ChiComs
at some point in the Asian session, and simply snowballs from there … and we’re
at the point where total FOMO on the way UP is taking hold … doesn’t matter how
stupid the trade, further buying will find bigger suckers than you for you to get out,
and this will work brilliantly … until it doesn’t … now Houston, we got a problem!
We’re not quite there yet, but today has a feeling of a mini “blow off” to the upside
… now up almost 300 PIPS, USDJPY at 143,, and a move tomorrow above 145 and
you simply got to be extremely careful about being long … as for today, party on
Garth, cuz screw the odds cuz being long is an ATM spitting out cash … until of
course, it doesn’t … then see what happens next if the snowball starts moving
lower … not prediction’, just sayin’ … where USDJPY is at now, we’re in
“The Twilight Zone” of currency depreciation, and whatever you think, simply
“unthink” it cuz it only exists in your head … USDJPY CAN GO ANYWHERE
from here … ANYWHERE!
Well, here we are at the end of the session, and quite frankly the day was over
before it even began … it’s easy to sit there and say in hindsight, “oh, I should
have been long from the get go, knowing the result … but in reality, today’s mini
melt up in USDJPY only gets part of what losses you’d be getting back over the
last several years when/if you bucked the probability odds and did “stupid shit”
… and just cuz it would have worked, doesn’t mean it’s not stupid shit … it’ll be
here tomorrow, and we’ll still be in “The Twilight Zone” … did nothing today cuz
it never had any corrective action … let’s see what tomorrow brings.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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