Nobody sends us an email when the trading rules change, and we’ve had more
paradigm shifts the last couple of years, than the first 40 years of my trading
career … central bank manipulation, government interference [think “Plunge
Protection Team” [PPT], a completely clueless FED, and thrown together we end
up with “markets” that are more like slot machines run by mobsters, than free
markets as they are supposed to be.
Then there are the scumbag banks and/or HFT LP’s, where their definition of
“liquidity provider” is a Helluva lot different than mine … so on top of all of the
previous bullshit, we always have to keep an eye out for those LP thieves who
jack spreads, set the “slippage meter”, and hand out ridiculous fills off the
market … all of which is about separating traders from their money as quickly
as possible.
So, the changes have come fast and furious … at first, you want to deny that your
own government is one of your biggest enemies, that markets are “fair” [cough,
bullshit, cough], transparent [more bullshit], and accountable [more-er-er bullshit]
… algorithms and trading models that worked for decades become obsolete
overnight when the rules change, but there’s no way to verify what the new rules
even are, nor what markets will become “hot”, and which will die … it takes time,
something which most traders are loathe to give away, cuz time is money … at the
end of the day, you got mathematicians, computer scientists, & physicists, and
other assorted brainiacs working on new software modeling out things nobody
ever thought of before … and it’s a daunting task to stay current, I can tell you.
But we’ve reached a sort of “limit” when it comes to platforms, banks & their
networks, participation in markets, and the flow of money in & out on a daily
basis … at the margins, there will always be change, but the one thing that isn’t
gonna change is ORDER FLOW and how the scumbag banks handle it and profit
from it … and while not 100% guaranteed, it’s as close to owning a casino license
without having one … and that’s EXACTLY WHERE WE SIT RIGHT NOW with the
trading algorithm … we’ve come through a disappointing and rather disjointed
Summer in terms of trading conditions, and today marks the last of the central
bank meetings that matter … nobody likes “hurry up & wait”, but it is what it is
… in other words, it should be clear skies & sailing for the trading algorithm
going forward, especially in USDJPY [or alternatively EURUSD & GBPUSD in FX,
and maybe WTI crude oil if Turnkey can ever get their shit together] … quite
frankly, if a market moves, the algorithm is extremely quick to model the move
from the proper profitable side … and with a ton of bullshit out of the way for the
foreseeable future, I’m looking forward to what comes next … only a completely
dead market can hurt us, and while we’ve had our share lately, it’s mostly been a
function of “hurry up & wait” … well screw that!, there’s no need to wait any
longer.
I’ve long had a policy of not wishing to trade during New York afternoons and
early evenings to the China open around 9 PM EST. … that’s still probably a
good idea with EURUSD & GBPUSD, but not USDJPY … USDJPY trades can
come anytime now, and some of the best trading algorithm buy signals have
come between 6 PM EST - 9 PM EST … I’m going to be more aggressive taking
signals, simply cuz it’s the conglomeration of total signals at the end of a session
that matters to profits, not any single trade … granted, some are better than
others, but time of day isn’t particularly significant to profits … in other words,
TIME TO SET SAIL.
FED at 2 PM EST today of course … well, that escalated quickly didn’t it? … buy
the rumor, sell the fact anyone? … USDJPY especially vulnerable to this
phenomena since it’s up above 144 [or was], and IMHO traders were too hawkish
on Spicoli coming out spitting fire … that leads to selling from LONG position
holders, and with the 10 YR treasury yield moving lower from 3.6%, the selling
picked up … a dead cat bounce in EURUSD & Cable helped as well … but still,
USDJPY is well supported by rates, and at least for now, there’s no reason to
believe YEN is gonna rally … having said that, tomorrow night is the BOJ with
monetary policy, and who knows the bullshit these Assclowns could pull … what
if they adjusted their Yield Curve Control [YCC] for the 10 YR JGB? … if that
happened, YEN would skyrocket on stop loss selling of LONG position holders.
Let’s face facts shall we? … trees don’t grow to the sky, and nothing is gonna go
to ZERO … over the next few days at a minimum, it wouldn’t surprise me to see
USDJPY get monkey hammered, although “fun-durr-mentals” don’t support it
[yet] … everybody and their pet monkey who wants to be positioned, is LONG
USDJPY … you think the scumbag banks don’t know this? … and that has the
potential to be explosive.
Post Spicoli’s presser and the other Lounge Lizards thoughts, only one algorithm
buy signal in USDJPY … volume I kept low simply cuz it’s late afternoon in New
York and I don’t need heartburn into the rollover and early Asian trading … MFI
went from near 50 to right at 80 while I’m long, but the market isn’t moving … that’s
a clear recipe for GTFO and try again later … TURNKEY PAMM UP VERY SLIGHTLY
… going forward, the trade looks good, with decent European & U.S. ranges, so it
becomes a function simply of how good the signal looks coming off the
VIDYA cmo 1.1 line … I don’t like straight up rallies to the signal, cuz it’s giving
away buy fuel, and I don’t wanna be somebody else’s Chump … onto tomorrow
… things look very good for us … let’s make some money!
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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