All during the Asian session, it’s been nothing short of an all out push by BOJ
Apparatchiks, to let everyone know they ain’t happy with USDJPY rising to the
145 level … well, maybe if your monetary policy wasn’t designed and implemented
by a room full of retarded kittens on meth, you wouldn’t have to worry about it
… but no, it’s the “specs” fault for making money off of your stupidity … stupidity
you double, triple, and quadruple down on at every opportunity you Dopes speak
in public … “Hell, you’re starting to make Biden look smart, that’s how bad it is
… and now, you want it to stop … sorry, it doesn’t work that way … go ahead,
intervene in the USDJPY market and throw away another TRILLION YEN down
the rabbit hole … at this point, what difference does it make?
And that bucket of “cold water” got thrown on the USDJPY market often last night,
as even the janitors in the building talked the YEN higher … hello “Thelma &
Louise”, it didn’t take long at all, and it’s been a slow, steady descent down since
… sun coming up in New York, and with the PPI today, who knows? … talk about
shifting winds, it feels like the FOMO panic has been stripped away, and unless
we get some kind of bigger break, the climb back up to the 145 level and beyond
just might be “Hoover Dam” difficult … we’ll see of course, but for now a
semblance of sanity has returned to the YEN trade, and the urgency of panic
removed by the BOJ ... how long this lasts is anybody’s guess, but for my money
the BOJ is shooting blanks and pretending to be the big, bad cop … somebody
is gonna test them, and if they blink and fail, look out above!
Once the BOJ spooked the living shit out of some long spec holders last night
and we went straight down to about the 143 level, it’s now turned into the yo-yo
from Hell via a somewhat smallish “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD], where the
turns are nasty and quick, and the m1’s lacking in scope … the “Trading Ratio”
[TR] as New York comes in is at approximately 3.5 - 4, which is OK, but nothing
like we’ve seen earlier in the week … my guess is, some specs have left the
market for now pending BOJ bullshit, and while slightly burned are just stepping
back some looking for clarity … good luck with that fellas!
Turning to today’s “Slots-A-Rama”, inside the world’s largest casino, USDJPY got
the big bucket of cold water thrown on it very early on last night, and has never
recovered … about 95% of today’s activity, the HULL 120 EMA, has had a negative
slope [pink] … and even the times it’s been green [sloping higher], price never did
anything except chop for a few minutes before heading lower … what looked like
a very promising day, turned very quickly into a bucket of warm spit, thank you
very much BOJ Apparatchiks … and while it amazes me they have ANY
credibility, the following chart directly below should make anyone sit up and take
notice.
This is a chart of intervention history by the BOJ over the last 27 years … both
buy YEN and sell YEN interventions … then look what happens next … talk
about “blowing up”, traders get caught the wrong way each and every time and
this market spends months and years going the other way … notice that over
the last 10 years, nothing has happened, as rates and other factors have made
the YEN a dead market for a considerable amount of time … not any more, not
now! … my point, though, is simple … they, meaning the BOJ, are close to
intervening and buying YEN, and it looks like the 145 level is a line in the sand
… if history is any guide, that would mean there’s one Helluva YEN rally
[USDJPY lower] coming up … and my guess is, that would start when Spicoli
goes back towards QE and away from rising rates … not “IF”, but “WHEN”
that happens, USDJPY will be a freight train going lower and killing accounts
along the way … something to keep your eyes fixated on for developments.
My guess is, Kuroda and crew know from Spicoli when the “pivot” is coming on
rates … we’re probably within 6 - 9 months of that happening, despite what the
other Lounge Lizards might say about rates … we’ll see.
Today’s trade marked by inconsistent VIX throughout the entire day … some
minutes decent, others simply horrible … I got no desire to be in a YEN position
and have it sit for 10+ minutes and not even move 2 PIPS, then in 15 seconds it
moves over 10+ PIPS on some front running bullshit from the usual suspects
… we haven’t seen this in a while from YEN, but it came in spades today … and
once again, pretty much all the action comes in the Asian session at some point,
today cuz of the intervention happy talk from BOJ Apparatchiks … I hung around
the first couple of hours and it was dead, so I went to bed … get up 5 hours later
and it already has a 200+ PIP range … and now of course, it dies on the vine
… extremely frustrating watching this shit go through its “Jekyll & Hyde” routine,
and having VIX all over the place … quite frankly, this is not what i want to see
out of any market I trade cuz it leads to big problems in execution and liquidations,
and of course the scumbag LP banks will do you no favors screwing you at
every turn given the chance ... they’ll do whatever it is that doesn’t get them
indicted.
No doubt, there are some “spooked” folks out there that have backed away
… and with it comes loss of volume & liquidity … until the FED meeting is over
and done with next week, I have a hard time seeing USDJPY breaking through 145
given the attitudes of the BOJ … maybe they’re bluffing, which is possible and
can’t be discounted … on the other hand maybe they ain’t, and if that’s the case,
watch how USDJPY can lose 200 - 500+ PIPS in seconds, cream spec sell stops
and fill all of ‘em at the bottom … cuz the BOJ ain’t concerned with the level of
the YEN, they’re interested in killing specs who profit off of their stupidity
… intervention is about “payback”, not policy … we could be looking at a
gigantic ‘chopfest” for a while, and if that’s the case, shortening day trades
makes sense.
PPI not having the same impact as CPI, and today’s number a non event
… dismal trading action post PPI, and outside of one move in the early New York
afternoon, this market has done absolutely NADA … the problem isn’t getting
trade signals, the problem is the frequency of “false positives” that sneak in, in
greater abundance and hurt performance … and when shit slows down, and the
m1 ranges come in, that’s what happens … it simply does us no good to have
1 - 3 losses in a row, followed by a decent winner so that we can break even
… and this is the major limitation of the algorithm, so when things slow down
you got to be cognizant of the ramifications and judge whether or not you wanna
piece of some not so great action … and from where I sit, the entire day was a
bag of dog poo.
Don’t get me wrong, the ranges have been very good … problem is they’re always
in the Asian session, outside of the melt up from the CPI report … and if you trade
Asia from this side of the world, unless you’re a meth addict, you’re gonna miss
Europe & U.S. sessions to sleep and life … not to happy about it, but there isn’t
anything I can do about it when conditions don’t warrant playing … no trades
today in USDJPY for the PAMM … I am considering, when the HULL is solidly
pink with a heavy downward slope, of trading from the short side … conditions
have to be right, and as I’ve said before, you get no favors trading from either
side cuz the problems are the same for both … for now, though, USDJPY still
looks and feels like the best side for profitable opportunities is from the long side.
I’m not at all happy today with the level of CONSISTENCY in USDJPY when it
comes to VIX … all over the place, from dead to bat shit crazy [BSC] and back
again is not a recipe for profitable trading … sure, the scumbag LP banks love it,
cuz they trap traders without the traders even knowing they’ve been had, and then
at some point some Schlepp comes in and gets the front running treatment
special while you’re sitting there … can’t move 3 PIPS in 20 minutes, but can
move 10+ PIPS in 5 seconds or less … let’s hope tomorrow sees better VIX
CONSISTENCY … retail sales the headline event for tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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