“So, they say they love you, huh!?”
EURUSD a clusterfark of manipulation pre ECB decision, and disappointment
after the ECB interest rate decision, as Lagarde couldn’t adequately explain how
the PIGS [Portugal, Italy, Greece, & Spain] are gonna get financed as QE stops in
July … forget the rate hikes Apparatchiks are talkin’ about every frickin’ day, they
are already factored into price … her inability led to EURUSD selling, and the pair
ends up with a TRIPLE REVERSAL DAY … talk about a FUBAR day, this was it.
Meanwhile, right from the European open get go, USDJPY was sliding lower … if
there ever was a time for “Peter Pan” Kuroda to intervene and send YEN
skyrocketing, this was it … the BOJ didn’t do Mr. Jack Squat … that tells me
they’re comfortable with a much weaker YEN still … all of their “blah blah, yada
yada” happy talk is bullshit … which for central bankers is par for the course.
The trading algorithm did a great job calling the turns in USDJPY … me not so
much … that early weakness lasted far longer than I had anticipated, and it led
to 2 “false positives” and 1 good trade from the long side as the HULL 200 EMA
was still hot pink [lower trend] … things dramatically slowed down into the ECB
interest rate decision, and the clusterfark there had an effect on USDJPY through
the EURJPY cross … from there it was waiting for LaGarde to give her presser,
where all Hell broke loose in EURUSD … and then when the NYSE opened,
USDJPY blew out of the box and went higher … it’s like we had 4 distinct and
separate markets rolled into one … another day where “risk on / risk off” [RORO]
meant NADA … it was all interest rate differentials with the 10 YR. Treasury that
traders panicked repeatedly over, sometimes blowing through a few buy signals
so fast, USDJPY went north 5 - 10 PIPS within just a few seconds … there were a
few other buy signals where the “signal” came too far off the bottom for my
comfort … a lot of buy fuel got eaten up just to get to the buy signal.
Make no mistake, most of the day the HULL was in a downtrend … from an
algorithm perspective, that means short positions on sell signals … on the other
hand, when the HULL is in a downtrend [hot pink], buy signals can be taken if
you’re an aggressive trader … with the way the YEN has been behaving lately, I
don’t really want to be short USDJPY … I’d rather be long … which is fine, as
long as you remember that when the HULL is showing downtrend, there will be
more “false positives” on buy signals than when the HULL is blue [uptrend]
… and sure enough, we got 2 in a row early, way before the ECB decision … quite
frankly this kinda surprised me cuz I figured early weakness should be bought
… what I didn’t count on is the length of this weakness lasting well over an hour,
while showing little to no momentum to the upside, outside of giving the buy
signal … we finally did get a good buy signal, but it’s only in hindsight you look
at the chart and say, “gee, why didn’t I hang onto it?” … well, that’s easy to
answer … I got out on a spike higher and the MFI was up at 100 … this is exactly
what I was supposed to do when HULL is in a downtrend and I get long … only in
hindsight do you see it correct for 5 minutes and then rocket higher … and that
was it … the rest of the day a bag of dog shit as far as YEN is concerned, as it
goes “sleepytime” and meanders higher while the m1’s lose a great deal of their
previous VIX … after we get to the London FIX [the rebound high for USDJPY],
it’s pure heartburn into the New York afternoon … “chop city” from the likes of
JPM & Squid, and no thanks.
Multiple algorithm buy signals today in USDJPY … TURNKEY PAMM DOWN
RIGHT AROUND 0.1% … volumes were increased and will go higher … this
up/down slightly bullshit is ending … we finally got a good, decent platform for
trading both EURUSD & USDJPY, although latency could be better, but we are
suffering no slippage to speak of … what I think is taking the time, is that they
get the order, fill it extremely fast, then log the trade execution and then send me
the fill … it isn’t the execution that’s taking the time, it’s the administrative part
of the trade … on the regular MT4, we got sandbagged all the time with bullshit
fills, where all the buys saw mystery upticks in the offer for a buy fill, and all the
sells saw a mystery downtick in the bid for a sell fill … that hasn’t happened on
this platform and prices have been spot on … if they could, I’m sure they’d screw
us, but they aren’t cuz all of the fills I’ve received so far have been “no problemo”
… so, I can’t complain at all about our fills.
We did get some buy signals that got blown through … not being in those trades
hurt performance today … in addition, the 2 “false positive” signals didn’t do us
any favors either … the one good trade signal we had just couldn’t overcome
those 2 … meh, shit happens … considering volumes are going much higher, I’m
not worried about tiny fractions of a percent … sure, I’d rather see it be UP, but in
the scheme of things it doesn’t matter … the trading algorithm is “pure GOLD
BARS”, simple as that … overall, looking at the day, the algorithm certainly did its
job without thinking … me? … wrongly thought that early weakness could be
bought … I was eventually right, but that doesn’t mean shit as price falls … there
are NO RULES anymore to trading, and you can’t just sit there and go, “Oh, no
problem, I’ll just double, triple, quadruple up cuz it has to rally … no it doesn’t
… old joke from the trading pit days .. I bought the first break, bought the second
break, and WAS THE THIRD BREAK! “ … I should have been a little quicker on
the draw today and wasn’t … our “Happy Meals for the basketball team” is on
me, not the algorithm.
Tomorrow sees CPI inflation numbers @ 08:30 EST … rock & roll USDJPY here
we come … a hotter than expected number and it’s more than likely “moon
shot” time again … a big sigma miss to the downside, and the bond market will
react “el quicko mucho”, followed concurrently by USDJPY going
“Thelma & Louise” to see who gets to the bottom first … I really can’t see that
scenario unfolding, especially with energy prices and food skyrocketing, but
with government numbers you never really know how much they manipulate &
massage things to get a desired result … so yea, it could happen … anything
close to consensus, and I’d expect USDJPY to start climbing again towards
135 … we’ll see … onto tomorrow.
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and
my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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