It doesn’t always play out like this on NFP Friday, but many times it does … and
that scenario is where both Asia & Europe up to the release of the jobs numbers
are deathly quiet … Europe so quiet, the m1’s barely registering 1 PIP per minute
movement … and that right there tells you to leave it alone.
Then here comes the hurricane at 08:30 AM EST … literal stupidity on steroids
each and every month, as banks skim specs who are dumb enough to trade news
… the SP500 trading like a penny stock via the “pink sheets” in Vancouver,
priced in Colombian Pesos … talk about ZERO liquidity, there’s a market the FED
has turned into a total FUBAR mess, with “risk on / risk off” [RORO] going back &
forth at the turn of a light switch.
As longtime readers already know, I hate NFP Friday’s … always have, always
will … trading messes begin and end with this dumb ass release, with made up
fairy tale numbers by whiz kids in math who couldn’t get a real job in the private
sector, usually followed by equally dumb market moves that make ZERO sense
and only serve to enrich banks … throw in the fact that lately these last weeks /
months, and it seems like every other day is either a major reversal, double
reversal, or even a triple reversal, and you got the makings of some serious
bullshit going down on a Friday that ends up ruining most trader’s weekends &
psyches … it’s where you get FOMO & panic on both sides in a shortened
session … and it’s why I’ve always hated this trading day.
And suddenly, the “Spoos” go “risk off” and are now hitting a new low for the
day … dunno, but anybody listening to “Taliban Joe” speaking would be selling
everything they own and going “off grid” … USDJPY getting dangerously close
to the 131 - 131.50 level, that if breached on the upside is gonna unleash Hell in
markets … get to work Spicoli! … and “Peter Pan” Kuroda is silently praying
somewhere in Tokyo … I got a very bad feeling about USDJPY going forward,
and I don’t think at some point [today, next week, next month, Fall, etc.] either
Kuroda or the FED will be able to stem the selling … and that will set the world’s
financial system on full retard “TILT”! … and given the “leadership” running
things in the western so called democracies, expect the worst.
Now after the London Fix that wasn’t cuz of the Queen’s gig, and London is
closed, heading into the New York afternoon I want ZERO part of EURUSD … I’m
still watching USDJPY, and quite frankly I’m somewhat surprised at the ease of
USDJPY of moving past 130 to the now current level of 130.70 … come Monday
I’m gonna focus on this pair primarily cuz it’s moving better over the course of
the day, has purer signals than EURUSD, and is the driver in the crosses and
remains more volatile than EURUSD … like yesterday, some beautiful algorithm
signals in USDJPY, and given the level we’re at and the stakes at risk, I think this
is the pair to be in going forward … it’s either gonna be a “bigly & yuge” breakout
to the upside, OR a “bigly & yuge” double top formation on the daily candlestick
[close enough now for government work] … either way is fine with me.
EURUSD post NFP today pretty pathetic … IMHO, kinda stuck in mud around this
1.06000 - 1.08000, with the market calling bullshit on the ECB Apparatchiks trying
every single day with the “blah blah, yada yada” about interest rate hikes coming
in July and beyond … the market ain’t buying it and wants proof … we could easily
be stuck in this mud for the next 5 - 8 weeks … IMHO, not so in USDJPY, and so it
will have a very high probability of keeping its VIX relative to EURUSD, and is the
place to be … I think today’s NFP bullshit drives this home in spades.
Months ago, I righty identified the USDJPY as the pair to trade going forward, but
gave up on it too soon … my mistake … didn’t have the algorithm back then, only
parts of it, but now the whole package is complete … sure, EURUSD will still be a
viable scalp trade on some days, but quite frankly the consistency of USDJPY now
that the “Vix Genie” is out of the bottle and ain’t goin’ back in, makes it a better
trade candidate, and so that’s where we’re headed come Monday … and just like
that, USDJPY is up at the 131 level … oh boy, this is gonna get interesting.
One of the major advantages of USDJPY as a trading pair, especially now in this
world of RORO, and whips back & forth like a frickin’ yo-yo, with a speed and
velocity that is simply unreal, is that since it’s the “premiere” RORO vehicle for
risk, it can be traded into the New York afternoon right along with “Stock Bellies”,
something that gets really “iffy” with EURUSD … none of this is “new” to me, or
some kind of revelation, but up ‘til now I’ve always given the edge to EURUSD
… I’m changing that and have to give the trading edge to USDJPY … everything
from “fun-durr-mentals” to chart patterns are simply better for trading, and quite
frankly unless the U.S. goes into a major depression and interest rates literally
collapse into NIRP [someday, but not now], it’s gonna be rough to see YEN sitting
around and doing nothing while the other majors move … should have been here
today from the get go, but I thought EURUSD would be moving today … it didn’t
and isn’t now.
And with crude oil [Brent] almost up at $120 per barrel, don’t expect inflation to
subside anytime soon, regardless of the Dipshits like Biden in “The Swamp”
bloviating about inflation risks cooling down … they ain’t … they’re full of shit,
and simply projecting propaganda … which means interest rates versus the
insane level controlled by the BOJ are only gonna be going higher … unless of
course the BOJ folds and raises yields, something they say they are adamantly
dead set against … we’ll see … in any event it makes for VIX in the pair.
In today’s post NFP report, we did get some buy signals in EURUSD but they got
blown through like a blow torch hitting a soft butter stick … al-in-all, though, a
sick performance for EURUSD with a measly 40 PIP yo-yo, “Flying Wedge of
Death” [FWD] range … now into the New York afternoon, it’s sitting and taking
a nap … great … bye! … No trades today for the PAMM, cuz pre NFP the entire FX
space, excluding USDJPY, a sleeping disaster of nothingness, and post NFP
simply a few hours of trading until everything is closed for the weekend except
New York … quite frankly, not a good time to be initiating anything in EURUSD
when it’s this dead … come Monday we’re in USDJPY primarily, and only if it’s
dead as a log in tall grass will I then look towards EURUSD … not likely, but who
knows anymore in the casino … onto Monday … blog update on Sunday … and
btw, if I do make any trades post blog post, I’ll do a late afternoon update after
the NYSE close.
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses”!! 😎😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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