“30+ years of monetary irresponsibility, & the BOJ is insanely stupid!”
As you can see, crypto is getting monkey hammered into tighter and tighter
ranges as people flee the space for greener pastures … and while BTC is the
prettiest horse at the dog food factory, the alt-coins have really suffered … in
the traditional MT4 space, some light comedown from higher levels in the 20
Day Range MA for “Stock Bellies”, which is not surprising cuz we’re headed
into the June FED meeting on Wednesday, June 15th, and with all the
uncertainty swirling around a shipload of factors, “Stock Bellies” might have
their moments, but IMHO got nowhere to go until the 15th when the Lounge
Lizards show their cards.
In the FX space, major pairs so far holding up well in terms of their ranges, and
while we might get some reduction in ranges over the summer, I can’t see much
for USDJPY, as that country and their insane central bank, led by “Peter Pan”
Kuroda, lead the country down the road and into the “rabbit hole”, and
eventually complete fiat destruction.
Quite frankly, and this has been known for years, Japan is a “basket case” when
it comes to monetary responsibility … it’s debt / GDP level is right around 270%,
which no country in the history of the world has ever escaped hyperinflation and
currency destruction … it has the highest population average age of any country,
and the lowest birth / death rate … the country is dying folks … and it has a
central bank that is printing YEN at a faster & faster clip, via the easiest monetary
policy of any country … the country has a national debt of approximately
1.6 QUADRILLION YEN … that’s 1.6 followed by 14 ZEROES! … and the reason all
of this matters, is cuz the math is starting to rule no matter what the idiots ruling
Japan want or think … at this point, and it took about 30 years to get here, is
either they raise interest rates [which will explode the debt further cuz of higher
interest rate costs on outstanding debt], OR they continue Yield Curve Control
[YCC] and the currency goes to complete shit, furthering inflation problems
dead ahead.
About the only thing that can save YEN, is either Spicoli at the FED unleashes
QE FOREVER and interest rates in the U.S. fall dramatically, OR “Peter Pan”
gives up on YCC and allows rates on JGB’s to rise … there ain’t any other
choices … and the dirty little secret every single trading pro knows, is that if
Japan goes tapioca the world’s financial system goes with it … THERE ISN’T
ENOUGH MONEY ANYWHERE TO BAIL IT OUT … and that means, USDJPY
traders have to keep their eyes and ears tuned to the BOJ during the Asian
session, for any hints or changes in YCC that might signal rates going up … cuz
that will send USDJPY sharply lower [YEN higher] … without that, though, any
hint of stronger economic activity or higher inflation in the U.S., which would
support the 10 YR Treasury rate to go higher, and USDJPY most likely goes
higher [YEN lower] … and my gut feel is that if the 131.50 level gets breached on
the upside, and we ain’t that far away from it right now [about 70 PIPS], you’ll see
very rapidly SHTF and Apparatchiks & central bank PIE HOLES start to panic
… and there ain’t nobody that’s got a handful of TRILLIONS OF YEN to bail Japan
out of this clusterfark, FUBAR mess they are in … sure, USDJPY can go lower,
especially when the 10 YR. Treasury yields go down, and it looks like the U.S.
might be headed into a recession / depression … that would save the YEN … for
now … but the “Vix Genie” is out of the bottle, the law of very large numbers in
math is taking over, and their isn’t a “Hoover Dam” thing Kuroda & his pals can
do about it except raise rates dramatically … something right now they say they
are adamantly against … but faced with national financial suicide, at some point
they’ll “trial balloon” hints by BOJ “nobodies” that rates night be going higher,
and then gauge the reaction of markets.
If you trade YEN or the YEN crosses be on the lookout for it, especially in the
late afternoon of the Asian session as Europe comes in … and right now “Peter
Pan” is counting on Spicoli to keep rates from rising, cuz in his mind he’s got no
other choice in the matter … sooner or later, USDJPY has a date with disaster to
the upside.
The platform we’re on for EURUSD & USDJPY I would give a grade of A- / B+
… the bid/offer spreads are as good as it gets anywhere, and with no
commissions, just on the surface there aren’t many places you’re gonna be able
to go and get what Turnkey is showing … and that means it comes down to
1) slippage, and 2) latency on fills … as to the first, on these two pairs it’s
definitely minimal if not ZERO, unless it’s sigma misses bat shit crazy [BSC] in
FX as a whole or there’s some news events that are specific to one or the other
… but even then, though, it won’t be much … as to the second, latency on the
platform is “acceptable”, and definitely better than the regular MT4 latency, but
it isn’t what they promised … no real surprise there, but it’s fast enough to know
I’m not getting robbed, mugged, raped, and then shot in the back of the head,
which is what you usually get on their regular MT4 platform … so it becomes
“acceptable” … and as I have found out first hand, this only applies to EURUSD
& USDJPY, as they are the “loss leaders”, and the house makes all their coin
fucking people in everything else, especially CFD’s.
As I said on Friday, up ‘til now I’ve always given the “edge” between the two to
EURUSD … that has changed … my primary focus is now on USDJPY, with just
some of the reasons I have given above in the blog post … JPY impact effects
everything, cuz it’s the denominator of choice in ALMOST ALL OF THE CROSSES,
and to that extent it has importance no other pair has … throw in all the shit the
pair is facing, and it’s a major wonder it has taken this long to get here … but
here we are … onto the week at hand!
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses”!! 😎😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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