As I pointed out on Friday in Cable, never in the history of FX has volatility been
this bad, where ranges are becoming severely restricted, and spec traders are
fleeing in droves … and as the historically highest VIX pair, being Cable, shows in
the monthly candlesticks, all of this started in earnest in January 2015, which just
also coincidently [cough, bullshit, cough] saw the clusterfark known as EURCHF
… and since that time central banks have put the proverbial “hammer down” on
spec driven flows, and driven VIX right into the ground, even with the pandemic
hoax action of March 2020, which they let play out cuz they had no choice … but
a month later, THEY’RE BACK!, and it’s been all downhill since then in spades.
Directly below the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected pairs.
You’ll notice from last week, I’ve added GBPAUD & the SP500 CFD from Turnkey
… to their credit, Turnkey’s SP500 CFD is about as good as it gets for trading
… their are a couple of other houses that are right there with the same conditions,
notably Simple FX, but on the whole Turnkey has made it a point to be a “player”
in this CFD stock index … too bad they don’t have that attitude for a host of other
CFD’s, like the DAX30, NDX100, crude oil, & Nat Gas … hell, even their spot gold
[XAUUSD] is getting “iffy”, with the spread creeping higher almost everyday.
But mostly with this shit VIX, FX have become the “Killing Fields” of trading … and
this is happening for several reasons … 1) overall, specs have left for “greener
pastures”, most notably crypto [BTC], thus FOMO & panic in any pair is becoming
harder to get, 2) from an historical perspective we’re getting many more double
& triple reversal range days than seen in the past … that’s cuz of smaller ranges
which make it easier in terms of PIPS, but also cuz these smaller ranges make it
easier for scumbag banks to push markets into stops … Friday’s action was a
good example of this, and 3) pretty much all of the trading action is either in the
late Asian session OR afternoons in New York, with Europe practically dead
… and I can tell you this is wholly different from historical norms … hell, the way
things are right now, Europe could stay closed and nobody would notice or care!
The natural manifestation of all of this, of course, is to get spec players [retail &
institutional] to “bite” on trade signals so the banks can fade them aggressively,
and with much smaller ranges, that is becoming easier by the week and month!
… “yes Skippy, you’re being manipulated by the banks via psychological warfare,
cuz they know collectively you are over leveraged and it doesn’t take much to get
you to puke a position … tight spec stops fuel the fire, and it’s order flow info they
have but you don’t, and they use this to utterly defeat you inside smallish ranges”
… and it leads to end of day looking at the day’s action and thinking, “WTF was
that? … good grief what a pile of shit”! … and quite frankly, I don’t know what
turns FX around in the future to see significantly higher ranges and better trading
conditions.
Hopefully, “Stock Bellies” are starting to develop 2 way action … about frickin’
time! … even with all of this “blah blah, yada yada” talk, it still isn’t where it needs
to be from the Lounge Lizards at the FED … “fish or cut bait Morons”! … cuz
“the talk” about tapering is causing heartburn in the SP500 … however, while
better it still isn’t where it needs to be … I’m hopeful it can get better, but we’ll
have to wait and see what develops, and for that matter this is a FED week on
Wednesday, so more developments are coming quickly.
Onto the week … outta here … “the future looks so bright, I need sunglasses”! 😎
… Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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