It’s time for some FX perspective, and no better market to give us that than
GBPUSD, a/k/a Cable, and in prior trading eras lovingly referred to as
“The Widow Maker” … not so much anymore to anybody new to this game,
but history has a way of revealing ALL of the personalities of a particular
market. Directly below, an almost 20 year monthly chart of Cable, which
reveals some interesting dynamics.
This is so pathetic I can hardly describe it in words and do it justice … I think it’s
pretty clear that if you look at 2021 so far [in the 9th month of September], there
has never been another year as bad as this one in terms of price action … and
the last few months look like pencil smudges on the monthly chart … “Does this
chart look healthy to you, like there’s any kind of price action one way or the
other”? … in fact, all of the seminal events since BREXIT, which I’ve labeled,
you’d be hard pressed to say anything significant happened if you didn’t know
better, simply cuz the price action has been so piss poor relative to the past … I
would argue, that the January 2015 “EURCHF Debacle” is so far the DEFINING
GAME CHANGER FOR FX THIS CENTURY! … more so than BREXIT & COVID,
cuz from that date central banks have changed the rules of the game … and of
course, the scumbag LP banks go right along with it cuz they get a free reign to
manipulate FX prices to their heart’s content, all with central bank blessings and
of course a “cut” of the “SKIM” … natch! … I hate to be the one to break the
news to the naive, but it’s how the world works Skippy! … and you can clearly
see from the chart, that since January 2015, PRICE VOLATILITY IS
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN BEFORE … even with BREXIT & COVID, the
monthly charts hardly register the events! … why, cuz the world is less FUBAR?
… no, cuz it’s manipulated.
Central banks don’t use direct intervention in FX any more … instead they use
“yield curve control” [YCC] in their massive bond markets, along with trotting
out Apparatchiks to the financial channels to get the desired move up/down so
the banks can take supreme advantage of specs via order flow … everybody
gets what they want except the spec trader, who obviously gets no love from
anybody … the banks use tax haven IBC’s, staff them with traders that formally
don’t work for the bank any longer, and it’s these IBC’s that front run corporate
& institutional orders all day long … this way, nothing shows up on the books
of the bank, and all of the records of the IBC are “top secret & confidential”,
protected by the laws of the country they’re domiciled in … and once you got
that, it’s very easy to distribute the “skim” to POLS, Apparatchiks, & regulators
worldwide, especially now with crypto … and the game simply continues
unabated cuz absolutely nobody in power ever wants to see it stop.
There is another factor at work here as well, and that’s the loss of spec traders
to crypto … I don’t care whether you want to believe it or not, crypto is where
the world’s “hot money” has gone to, and the biggest loser in all of this is FX
… especially on the “Pacific Rim”, Mrs. Watanabe & Gal Pals could care less
about gold & FX pairs … too slow and manipulated! … and 30 minutes after
trading some Bitcoin, they’re hooked and will never return to FX … why should
they? … not that it matters much to the banks, they simply front run big money
orders like they always have … but where you see price volatility manifest itself,
is in the loss of the specs cuz it’s specs who FOMO & panic all the time, not the
institutions, and without specs running stops becomes much harder … and the
direct result of this is lower VIX.
As I write, Europe has been open for a little over 2 hours, and the Asian session
is wrapping up and closing for the weekend … in this 2+ hours, from the tips,
Cable has a 12 PIP range … WTF is anybody supposed to do with that? … take
the median, and that’s 6 PIPS on either side for over 2+ hours … if you’re the
scumbag bank, you love this cuz it’s guaranteed money via spread + slippage
on every trade … what’s not to like from their perspective? … by comparison,
yesterday was a slow day in BTCUSD … not horribly slow, but slow nonetheless
… still, BTC had more movement yesterday under slow conditions than GBPUSD
has HAD THE ENTIRE FRICKIN’ YEAR OF 2021! … this is insane, but it’s true
… and you wonder why specs have left FX? … just imagine if FX had “open order
book” [OOB] platforms where everyone’s bid / offer, including banks, could be
seen by every trader … there’s no way in Hell the banks ever let this happen,
cuz it would mean the end of the corruption we see now in FX.
As markets limp to the NYSE open, it’s the same old shit, different day syndrome,
and Europe proves once again it’s worthless for price action of any significance
… and why should it? … find me anybody in Europe that still attempts to trade
this shit when there’s crypto! … sorry, that’s just a stone cold FACT … now,
everybody waits for the U.S. to get going, and what’s the 10 YR. Treasury gonna
do, how is the SP500 gonna open, and at 10 AM EST, what does consumer
confidence look like, and FX plays “spin the roulette wheel” … then some
movement [maybe] and then it dies into the “London Fix” and thanks for playing
in the casino … sure it’s rigged, but you’re here aren’t you? … maybe it will
shake out different today … I’m sure up for that, but again take a look at the
monthly chart for the last few months and tell me where this goes … where?
… there isn’t even a price “smudge” to look at for any clues … meanwhile crypto
makes FX look stupid! … if there was a theme song for FX, it would be, “A little
song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants”! … and the pretend
“trading” by banks continues, the illusion [some would say delusion] MUST BE
MAINTAINED that “markets” do exist … the game has to go on cuz of the need
for the “Skim” … without that the world literally stops!
I’m watching Cable today, for the simple reason that if they’re all gonna have
shit ranges, why pay a higher spread for a non dollar cross? … what sense does
that make? … with “Stonks” nearly open now, Cable with a pathetic 40 PIP range
for the entire day, and about 37 PIPS for the European session, waiting for the
Consumer Confidence numbers … place your bets for the 10 AM EST FX roulette
wheel spin! … winner winner, chicken dinner OR go home broke … what a joke
… and I might add, it’s triple witching Friday, so we got all of the OPEX bullshit to
deal with as billions upon billions of SP500 options expire today … and it’s why
I’m not interested in the “Spoos” today, cuz if you get caught in that BS you’ll
wish you had stayed in bed … OPEX days are to be avoided not embraced.
Consumer Confidence lower, but not by much … gosh, can’t figure out why
confidence is lower with “Taliban Joe” at the helm … what a mystery that is
… I’m surprised anybody has any confidence the way things are headed … and it
only gets worse heading into Fall & then Winter … this guy couldn’t piss and hit
the ground … “Spoos” and the other indices not liking what they’re seeing, and if
this 4440 level gives way, it could get ugly … not predictin’, just sayin’ … this
Ponzi Bubble is so overstretched it defies human imagination, so there’s plenty of
space to the downside … it would be nice, though, if on the way down it could
trade some, instead of going “freight train” lower, but we’ll see.
Cable makes a new low on a straight shot lower after the report … natch, why
trade? … as I said, there’s nobody trading it, only institutional flows, and until
those flows stop selling, Cable won’t rally … and it looks like it’s headed lower
right into the “London Fix”, where you know the rest of the story … “oh, you’re
gonna get “fixed” alright”! And so today, like gazillions of other days, you either
have to buy the rally or sell the break, and then pray there’s a bigger idiot than
you out there that will do it harder than you so you can get out … and if you
think that’s the road to riches, then have at it, but over time you ain’t gonna like
what happens next.
Welp!, there it is for all to see … how many times have we seen things reverse
right after the “London Fix”? … about a million or maybe more? … nothing to
see here sheeple, just some good ‘ol fashioned manipulation … please ma’am,
move back you could get hurt … and can Cable rally off of this? … nope! … why
not? … cuz there isn’t anybody to squeeze, and therefore there’s no “buy fuel”
… unless you consider 3 - 4 PIPS, then you’d be right … good grief, what a piss
poor excuse for a group of markets, and even if you look at the AUD crosses,
they haven’t done Mr. Jack Squat! … seriously, these ARE SICK MARKETS!
And if you think this “buy fuel” is a figment of my imagination, over in “Stock
Bellies”, here’s an article link directly below from today over at ZH that spells
put what happens when there’s no “buy fuel” [bounce fuel] available in the
market … translate that over into FX and it’s exactly the same phenomena.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bounce-fuel-non-existent-quad-witch-
So here we are on this Friday, “Stock Bellies” melting down, gold a waste of time
as the scumbag bullion dealers play the “Comex Con Game” for the millionth
time, all at spec expense of course, and FX badly in need of psychotherapy … we
now have an FX market that is basically useless except from about 9 - 11 AM EST,
a 2 hour market, where chips are laid down the wheel is spun, and thanks for
playing at the world’s biggest casino!
Is there “event risk”over the weekend from China & the bullshit with a major
corporation going belly up [Evergrande]? … me thinks there might be, and I don’t
see any “buy fuel” anywhere in anything … that doesn’t mean everything has to
go down, it simply means there’s nothing there to fuel a rally, and there’s a very
real possibility of meaningless chop the entire afternoon … thanks but no thanks,
cuz if you’re not going to move and/or actually “trade” [which there hasn’t been
all day], then fugetaboutit!
No trades today in anything, for the simple reason that I refuse to play FX roulette,
where there is ZERO trading until the U.S. shows up, and then you got 90 minutes
to 2 hours for everything to happen before pretty much all of these shit markets
go “sleepytime” … “Stock Bellies” not an option today cuz of the “triple witch”
… again, I will remind everyone, history says FX can’t stay like this under these
conditions … take a look at that monthly chart again cuz it’s a stunner … but, if
FX stays like this I’ll simply move over to the “Spoos” and trade that … lately,
they’ve been “trading”, although today gets warped cuz of OPEX … you’d think
with supposedly volatile crosses & Cable, we don’t need anything else, but these
aren’t normal times … but “Spoos” are OK, Turnkey does a decent job in this
market, so no worries … for “The Syndicate”, next week sees us back in action,
so “GiddyUp” there.
Blog update on Sunday … outta here … “the future looks so bright, I need
sunglasses”! 😎 … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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