powered by Coinlib

Tuesday, April 17, 2018


“How’s the exciting world of FX today?”

Seriously, this is S.T.U.P.I.D. [“Well, at least for the first 90% of the day”!]

Checking my screen, after 12 hours into the day, USDJPY has a 23 PIP range,
Cable has a 70 PIP range, and GBPJPY has a 60 PIP range … “Wait … Wut”? 
Meaning of course, just like yesterday, we aren’t trading GBPJPY, we’re 
trading GBPUSD, and all the attendant bullshit that goes with that dollar pair. 
“The pony can’t run if he can’t get to the track”!

Good grief, what a sad state of affairs the USDJPY market is currently in 
“I’ve seen dead, but this is D.E.A.D.! How’s a cross supposed to trade if the 
denominator looks and acts like its closed for the day? [Hint: It doesn’t trade, it 
chops.] Seriously, we’re gonna keep this 60 PIP range in GBPJPY going 
forward? ... cuz since the release of U.K. employment & wage numbers [which 
missed expectations], almost every M30 has reversed, and the signal generator on 
the M1 is on the wrong side of the market for a trade… that means only one thing 
… up and until something happens in USDJPY to make it come out of its coma, 
GBPJPY = GBPUSD, and their ain’t gonna be no pony running today”!

The big problem cross trading presents on days like this, is you got no idea 
where the next shoe to drop is gonna come from … “oh, but trust me, shoes will 
come”! … is it longs that get caught in the mid range, or do shorts panic first? 
… and as GBPJPY inches along at 1/10 of a PIP for 15 minutes, out comes the 
hammer and BOOM! … it spikes 4 - 7 PIPS, and blows the hell out of anything 
you were holding for a profit … and when you hit the liquidate button, you get the 
top of the spike if you were short, and if you were long you get the bottom of the 
spike, cuz it all happened in about 2 nanoseconds and you had no way to see it 
coming … this is chop mi amigos, and like the element “OY”, it is best avoided at 
all times”.

In other words, unless you have a death wish, and start 1) ignoring the FX 
crosses algorithm, and/or 2) start fading very small rallies & breaks in price to 
scalp the pair to the other side, there isn’t anything to do here except “keep the 
gunpowder dry” … only pain comes from trying to guess what happens next, 
and expecting that to work out for the best. 

“OMG!! OMG!! USDJPY has made a “ginormous” move up, and now has a 27 
PIP range from 23”! Somebody find out where this freight train came from 
… words escape me here this is so pathetic, “but hey, I’m sure the guy with the 
large buy stop the scumbag LP’s were gunning for, where once filled it has now 
fallen back down to where it was before hunting season opened … I’m sure he’s 
tickled pink knowing he’s NOT the pigeon today but the statute”. Half the 
day over and we’ve seen 5 trend reversals so far in GBPJPY on the M30 
… this is NOT what a “pony running” looks or acts like.

Turning to today’s GBPJPY market … good grief, what a bucket of slop this 
day is turning out to be [we still got a ways to go, but it isn’t looking good] 
… but … BUT … it gives me an excellent opportunity to compare today with a 
“normal” day [up or down makes no difference] and compare the two … cuz 
it’s days like today that make you want to pull the resume out and send it to the 
circus recruiter … [“why does he never answer my calls”?]. 

First though, only one short trade today, after the U.K. employment & wage 
numbers were released … PAMM up couple of bucks, nothing of significance. 
And then the chop set in, and I couldn’t run away fast enough!

Ok, why am I now in GBPJPY, and the answer lies in Cousin It’s voluminous, 
detailed beyond belief, and stunning research into the FX crosses in “The 
Magnificent Seven”, and when you see what I’ve got coming here in the next 
paragraphs, you should understand perfectly why the PAMM is here and why 
trading this animal is the way to go … so bear with me, as I slog through this 
and explain it to everyone … and if you have to read it twice or three times to 
get the full impact, please go ahead and do that cuz it’s most definitely worth 
the time spent.

First though, it makes no difference what market you trade, there’s gonna be 
small “doji” action days like today, that have no range, little volume, little 
aggregate price action, that nonetheless can kill your account by the end of the 
day when you realize you made 15 trades and lost 7 PIPS on every damn one of 
them looking for the breakout of the range … “cuz we just CAN’T stay in this 
tight range … right”? And yet, here we are, and even though these kind of days 
only occur approximately 2% - 3% of all trading days, over a career, that’s still 
a helluva lot of days!

I’m going to highlight the day of March 13, 2018 directly below; this is a 
somewhat “normal” up day, and as you can see from the daily candlestick 
chart, there’s nothing special about this day … I’m not “cherry picking”
perfect day; quite the contrary, as it isn’t perfect, but simply a good example of 
what is “in the ballpark” on normal days we trade … hell, there’s millions of 
these kinds of days! Directly below, the daily candlestick … you tell me, is this 
day special?

Now look in the upper right hand corner and see today … I’m feeling a little ill 
Now, directly below, is the M30 from March 13, 2018, with commentary, and 
directly below that is today’s M30, with commentary… anybody but me see a 
difference here?

Now would be a very good time to read, if you haven’t already, the manual & 
tutorial on FX crosses over in the right-hand column under “Download Links”
and its title is “GBPJPY: Understanding & Trading FX Cross Pairs” PDF. Here, 
you’ll find everything you need to trade this stuff.

Now, directly below, in chronological order, from 06:00 server time, March 13, 
2018, with commentary on the M1 candlestick charts covering 6 trades in that 
move up you see on the M30 ...THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE, and why I’m 
trading GBPJPY, cuz the crosses give you this while other markets don’t 

Add it all up, and it’s about 62 PIPS … and this isn’t even but a normal day. If 
I had taken one of the big 150+ PIPS straight up or down days, it would blow 
your mind. Just to give you an idea, directly below with commentary, March 19, 
2018, the M30.

“You do realize, you’re looking at a straight up move of over 250 PIPS? … that’s 
a lot of PIPS mi amigos”!

Now, granted, this is a big day, but GBPJPY gets about 2 or 3 of these per 
month, and I plan on getting every damn one of them when they come next 
… until then, on days where there’s umpteen trend changes and people are 
fighting for 3 PIPS in 2 hours, while risking 20, I’ll sit and keep my gun 
powder dry for when it matters … and boy, do some of these days matter. All 
of them, I might add, without the massive bullshit slippage and spread gaps 
the scumbag LP’s pull in the stock indices.

“Now, do you understand why I’m here in this market”?

Here, in the last part of our trading day, in the afternoon of New York, a sell 
side stop hunt in Cable [GBPUSD for you Newbies] sees GBPJPY extend to 
the downside as well and take out the previous low by about a dozen PIPS so 
far … still, USDJPY is dead as a log, and this is nothing more than the “Cable 
show”, and if you want to trade Cable go trade it, but don’t do it through Yen 
when you don’t have to … all that’s here right now today is “pain” in capital 
letters! From my initial sell side short, it’s been over 8 hours and GBPJPY is 
only about 30 PIPS, as I write, away from that … this isn’t what I want from 8 
hours of trading, especially in this crazy monster.

Tomorrow sees the important inflation numbers out of the U.K. … these are 
more important than the employment & wage data we got today … inflation 
has been running a little “hot” in the U.K., and any miss on the high side of 
higher inflation, and Cable will most likely find its “rally legs” … on the other 
hand, a severe miss could see “Thelma & Louise” cuz the market is long Cable 
looking for rate hikes down the road in a week or two, and cooler inflation 
might give the BOE Twits pause to hike rates … we’ll see what happens.

All told, I don’t mind missing crap like today, late afternoon break in New 
York after Europe is closed, simply cuz all of the losses on the trend changes 
earlier add up to greater than the 45 PIPS or so you would have gotten in the 
last 90 minutes … market now with about a 100 PIP range to at least have 
some respectability, with about an hour to our close … still an “inside day” 
though … “this isn’t how you draw it up and trade; this is how it gets drawn up 
and then kills you and then it breaks” … some deal, to need that break to get 
back to even with higher volumes to boot … what if it hadn’t come? “My point 
is simple: I’m break even without risking anything on a totally crap day, while 
some others risked half their account to get back to even cuz their first 10 trades 
were trend change losers, and needed the last sell move going into the close to 
achieve that … is that any way to trade”? Back at it tomorrow … I’m outta here 
… until tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

Have a great day everybody!







No comments:

Post a Comment