powered by Coinlib

Tuesday, April 3, 2018


“Meltdown? … what meltdown? … I don’t see no meltdown!”

Maybe Asia & Europe are in a different investment universe, cuz the stars were 
most definitely lining up for a major down move, coming off a 4 day weekend 
that saw the U.S. indices get “monkey hammered” something fierce. “Well, 
something funny happened on the way to sharply lower … how about basically 
just slightly lower … then a small rally”?

In retrospect, hearing of the 65,000 e-mini lot in the SP500 futures being sold, 
on that last leg down yesterday, may have been the signal for a short term 
bottom … “remember, this is the “smart money” at work … the rest of us are 
just “bumpkins” compared to savvy Wall Street types making 7 digits, who have a 
nasty habit of buying tops and puking bottoms … no worries, it isn’t their money, 
and hopefully it’s none of yours either”!

And of course, now that we’re about 2 hours to the NYSE open, yet once 
again begins the “Chipmunk ramp” higher in price… some things never 
change, as asset managers get to buy the opening high of the day just like 
clockwork. “Somebody remind me again why it is they make the kind of 
exorbitant money they do, please”. The overriding question today, occupying 
the “blue bloods” of Wall Street, is can the SP500 retake the 200 daily MA
 … “oh, how the world hinges upon astrology, all the while they haven’t a clue 
what to do”. Yesterday, it was “sell Mortimer, sell!” … today it looks and feels 
like, “buy Mortimer, buy”! [Just let me check my horoscope @ 10:30 and I’ll 
have a better idea.]

Turning to today’s market … “sure, after getting “monkey hammered” 
yesterday, where at one point the DOW30 is down 700 points, what makes more 
sense than to see a higher open and a rally right out of the gate today”? … for 
the life of me, I can’t see what anybody sees in paying up at the open, when 
you know early rallies have a high probability of getting faded … “but hey, 
I’m just a trader”.

The “setup” for the entire day is wrong for higher prices … not saying you 
can’t get them, but the fact remains, it’s only the afternoon rallies that matter 
… everything else is a scalp. And if you rally it in the morning, what’s left for 
the afternoon? Where is the “buy fuel” gonna come from? “Fact is, if you 
wanted to buy, you had all yesterday morning to buy at significantly lower prices 
than today at any time …. but no, can’t buy lower prices … hey, let’s wait until 
today, when shit is more expensive and we’ll buy it then … in what universe does 
this fly? … only when it comes to women’s perfume and stocks does a higher 
price create more demand, and a lower price sees both get treated like the ebola 

Now, here in the afternoon in New York, the market has tried multiple times 
to go higher and sustain rallies … each time it gets “shot down”, and we are no 
higher than we were 45 minutes before the NYSE open … “so again, I ask, 
where’s the buy fuel gonna come from on the umpteenth try higher, after the 
shellacking it took yesterday”? Sure, I could be wrong, but it’s not about “right 
or wrong” it’s about probabilities, and from where I sit, they aren’t very high.

And once again, no day can be complete without the scumbag LP bank’s 
“jacking” the spread higher at just the right moments … like for instance near 
the high of the day … directly below the M1 chart with the bid/offer quote up 
in the left hand corner … I can’t tell you how many times I’ve complained 
about shit like this, and it’s always the same … “duh, market conditions”. 
Amazing coincidence, though, seems this shit has a way of happening near 
highs and lows, as these scumbags refuse to make a market cuz they don’t want 
to be short near the high, or long near the low, cuz the spikes in both directions 
can be vicious, and they don’t want traders “picking them off”. MY 
RESPONSE: “Stop, I’m getting tears in my eyes”.

Only one trade today … PAMM up 0.1%.

Only one good “setup” that offered us an opportunity to get long … a couple 
of others, the right leg of “The Teacup Handle Turn” [THT] rallied so quickly 
off the double bottom, the market literally was 20 - 30 points higher in a second 
or two … and of course, you just have to pass these up, cuz they’re not 
worthwhile scalps to make … if you take them, you run the very real risk of 
having bought the short term high … besides, if you had caught them, you’d be 
selling here, not buying, so why make them?

Here at 2 P.M. EST, as if somebody sent the email out to sell, “down goes 
Frazier”! … if I didn’t know better, I’d say it was TBTF scumbag LP bank’s 
colluding to slam the market … “nah, that could never happen”. In reality, it’s 
simply the “setup” for higher prices is wrong … that doesn’t mean price has to 
go lower, cuz it could “chop”, but the catalyst to charge ahead is sorely lacking 
cuz we’ve been higher all day long. Really, the day has been a disappointment 
on a number of levels, not the least of which is what I’ve already talked about, 
but also because we have seen no capitulation of longs into the NYSE open 
… a scenario that almost has to happen to see a bottom in the DOW30. Over 
on ZH today, Nomura makes a great case for this level to be 2535 in the cash 
SP500 if it can be breached … the link for those interested directly below.


From recent action, the day was somewhat “wishy washy”, with not much 
range in the scheme of things given the drubbing yesterday … this explains the 
lack of decent “setups” for trades today. Going short not an option today, cuz 
the market is/was higher all day … you only sell, given the proper “setup”  
when the daily candlestick is red [down] for the day. “Well, that escalated 
quickly to the upside, didn’t it”? Nothing says “buy fuel” like a 300+ point rally 
in 22 minutes … I have no idea where that came from, but now you know why 
being short on an up day is not a good idea … picking tops is different than 
picking bottoms, cuz the dynamic is different and not symmetrical. “Not 
touching this in the last hour with a ten foot pole”.

However, a profitable day nonetheless, and tomorrow is another day with ADP 
employment numbers early to set the tone … I’m outta here … until tomorrow 
mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below.

Have a great day everybody!






No comments:

Post a Comment