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Monday, April 23, 2018

BOND MARKET SUSPENSE … CAN THE WORLD SURVIVE?

“Yup, big girl panties are bunched up over 3% 10 YR. yields … now what?”

“Well, I’ll tell you what … it’s called a USD short squeeze not seen in about 4 - 5 
years, especially in USDJPY, as record long FX positions get unwound “ugly” 
and vicious”. Of course, what’s gonna happen if the 3% handles sticks to the 
U.S. 10 YR. Treasury note, is the stock market will tank, causing said yields to 
slide, and all the folks who panicked to get out of long Yen positions [short 
USDJPY], will now come piling back with a vengeance to get long Yen once 
again. 

Cable a little more “tricky”; what with analysts predicting only days ago an 
interest rate rise in early May, dashed by the BOE’s Carney last week causing 
a massive exodus out of GBPUSD … and that means what for GBPJPY?  
“How about nuttin’ honey”!

Turning to today’s GBPJPY market … one of the worst trading days I think 
I’ve ever seen in this market for a non-Holiday … limping towards the 18:00 
close for us, sees a day’s range of approximately 73 PIPS, and quite frankly for 
a substantial portion of the day [about 75%], the range was 48 PIPS.  
“Wait … Wut? … yea, seems inconceivable with both GBPUSD & USDJPY 
having ranges OVER 100 PIPS … I’d have better probabilities of getting the dog 
get me some roast beef & bacon from the impenetrable bacon box, along with the 
Mrs. asking me if I need some cash today, which of course will see hell freeze 
over AND pigs fly first … but hey, it is what it is, which made for a really lousy 
trading session marked by no volume, no liquidity, with price gaps everywhere, as 
the scumbag LP banks have to make money from somebody”.

Three long trades today … PAMM up slightly, nothing significant. When it 
won’t move, there isn’t a whole lot I can do.

Directly below, 2 charts; the first is the archived M30 for the day with 
numbered trend changes, while the second is the same chart except with  
“zone charting”.



Comparing the two, the second one is far easier to navigate without the chop of 
tight M30’s, and it’s the reason I wrote and published last night the “Part II” of 
the GBPJPY FX cross pair manual & tutorial. “Chop” in this market can be a 
real killer … throw in no trading action, the spread to recover, and scumbag 
LP bank slippage, and you’re asking for a lot from a market that isn’t really 
doing anything in terms of price action … the 2 charts above have a 13 PIP 
grid box for M30’s … how pathetic is that?

But, I will tell you straight up, it’s days like today that newer traders fall into a 
deadly trap with the crosses … and that trap is, that if they just wait, and 
maybe double or triple up losers, the market will come back for them. “I got 
news for you: FX crosses are violent and have the potential to wipe accounts out 
quickly … one of the reasons I archive M30 GBPJPY trading action is to give 
readers a sense of what these crosses can do, and how fast they can turn around 
and bite traders in the donkey”.

Not really a whole lot anybody can say about today, except both Yen & Cable 
got “shellacked” about the same amount, and went “down goes Frazier”  
together in unison, and found themselves both in the back seat in the 
“Thelma & Louise” express to the bottom … strange, as it happens 
occasionally, but not that often. But I can tell you this … this ends, when Asia 
goes lower, Europe then tries to take it lower still but can’t … and then the slow 
melt up the rest of the day that sees about a 150 PIP move higher … the 
somewhat small reversals coming out of the 06:00 M30 one way, and then 
turning around and moving forcefully the other way … until we get that, I 
don’t think it’s over to the downside. “But hey, that’s me playing analyst … we 
follow the “zone charting” [see Part II in the “Download Links” section in the 
right-hand column], and take our cue from that”.

I would have liked to see more volume and action today from GBPJPY, but 
when it doesn’t want to “play”, trying to force trades just plays into the 
scumbag LP bank’s hands. The thing to do is “keep the powder dry” and move 
on to tomorrow … I’m outta here … until tomorrow mi amigos 
… Onward & Upward!!

PAMM spreadsheet directly below. 


Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

OUR TURNKEY FOREX “PAMM/MAM” IS NOW OPEN AND
OPERATIONAL; SEE “PAMM/MAM MONEY PROGRAM” IN
“DOWNLOAD LINKS” SECTION IN RIGHT HAND COLUMN
FOR DETAILS [VIEW ONLINE AND/OR DOWNLOAD] AND
START YOUR JOURNEY FROM WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
“ESCAPE TO SUCCESS”!

  
  










 

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