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Wednesday, April 25, 2018

CHEAP TUITION

“Sometimes, they all come out at once!”

Real moments and ‘reality checks” are important in trading … yesterday was 
one such moment. And quite frankly, even if the scumbag LP banks hadn’t 
ripped EVERY ORDER, but kept it to maybe half the orders, I still would 
have come to the same “come to Jesus” moment with respect to some of these 
markets. What’s changed over the last couple of years more than anything, is 
that the scumbag LP dealer banks, who we are forced to do biz with and have 
no other options, are more brazen, overt, and quick to misprice practically 
every market they got their sticky fingers in, and that’s all of them … and 
nowhere is this more apparent than in stock indices, precious metals, and FX 
crosses. “Cuz if you can sit there, with a straight face and lie to me, and tell me 
that the liquidation sell fill off the market by 7 full PIPS in a rising market, OR 
the 3.9 PIP rip on a buy liquidation, when GBPJPY is on the frickin’ low 
[literally], is “fair & accurate pricing”, then I think you have a career ahead of 
you in politics”. [Choose Libtard Nation, cuz facts just get in the way of the 
official Progressive narrative, and you’ll be right at home.]

And if you’re an experienced trader, you quickly realize the only way to trade 
is the U.S. Dollar pairs … everything else is a complete “illusion” they would 
love you to believe, and the HAL9000 computer system they all use is as dirty 
as they come … the only thing keeping the dollar pairs honest, is all the 
competition from other banks around the world, and if they stray too far off 
the reservation, people & regulators start to notice …”how do you think they 
caught FXCM sandbagging orders, and as a result, kicked them out of the biz”?

The “market tuition” we pay, is that first realization we got “hosed”, but the 
information gained to avoid it in the future far outweighs the money lost if it’s 
small in scope … cuz the dirty little secret is, no matter how many “pony rides” 
you get, every time you click the buy or sell button , they’re gonna take a chunk 
of your hide for themselves … EVERY SINGLE DAMN TIME … heads they 
win, tails you lose. It isn’t about the money, it’s about the business model. “Well 
screw that … I’m not here to donate, I’m here to withdraw … that’s my biz model, 
and when you “stack things” against me, so far out of whack with mystery ticks, 
stop hunts, & slippage, that you need two pony rides a day just to break even, it’s 
time to bid you adios, cuz trading through Vito Corleone, Inc. would be cheaper”.

Turning to today’s GBPUSD market … seriously, this is what you’re handing 
me today? … a multi trip excursion to the high and low, via the “Flying Wedge 
of Death” [FWD], that sees a slightly higher than 35 PIP range over 10 hours? 
… where there is zero order flow, no volume, and even less liquidity. How 
many times today have I seen 4 - 7 PIP spikes, both up & down … “well, way 
too damn many”! Fortunately, I haven’t been the recipient of any of them. 
Tonight sees the BOJ meet on interest rates, and tomorrow morning sees the 
ECB go at it with Super Mario … the next Cable interest rate meeting is 
Thursday, May 10th. Granted, both are holding FX action back, but this is the 
worst day I’ve seen in Cable, action wise, in a very long time … most of the last 
10 hours has seen less than 25 PIPS, with nothing but gaps and stops getting 
clicked off. Everybody holding their collective breath to see what stocks do, and 
whether or not they “Thelma & Louise” this afternoon; so far a rather subdued 
day in the DOW30 & SPP500 … stocks getting “monkey hammered” affects 
Treasury yields, and Treasury yields affect FX … and with every retarded 
kitten in the world watching and reacting to the 3% “Maginot Line” in the 
Treasury 10 YR., it’s a self fulfilling prophecy of “monkey see, monkey do”.

A shipload of trades today … PAMM down slightly, a little over $100.

We are in a new paradigm for trading … gone are the days of making 
minuscule profits, and then getting clipped for $300 - $400 bucks on a bad day. 
Volumes here in Cable are in the 200,000 - 500,000 notional range, and 
generally speaking, the larger the volume, the greater the likelihood of  
“position scaling” on my part, which means winning positions … bottom line: 
the flipping around of the trading model for the PAMM … there are no “bad 
days”, only days like today where there isn’t any action whatsoever and the 
market doesn’t move for the entire day; on days like these, trading is going to 
be very tough. It doesn’t necessarily mean losing trades, but the probability of 
loss is much greater, and again generally it means losses should be very small 
relative to what volumes are being traded. On the other side of the coin, most 
normal trading days should see good profits, and when I say “good profit”,
generally mean over $500 - $1,000+ on the plus side. So, people need to keep 
things in perspective going forward, cuz I’m not gonna be able to make 
everybody a millionaire this millennia at $1.98 per day. Tomorrow’s blog 
post, I’ll cover this in much more detail.

And, it’s official … 12 hours of the dullest trading I think I’ve ever witnessed in 
GBPUSD, which outside of a few M1’s where the market went to its extremes 
for the day before snapping back quickly, basically it was 1.3950-ish on the high 
side, and 1.39250 - 1.3930-ish on the low side … a wonderful 20 - 25 PIP range 
that saw more than its fair share of spikes in the 4 - 7 PIP range in a 
millisecond. And if your trading model depends on days like this to make 
money, good luck with that. Fills today good, only one trade saw anything 
more than a tenth of a PIP off the bid/offer, and it wasn’t significantly worse 
than that … so, can’t complain at all in the pricing arena today.

Tonight sees the BOJ meet, and Kuroda will more than likely open the QE 
floodgates once again … I haven’t a clue how FX reacts to this, given his 
dismal track record over the years getting USDJPY higher. ECB comes out 
with their interest rate agenda tomorrow morning at 08:00 EST, and Super 
Mario will talk out of both sides of his mouth and try to please bulls & bears 
and keep EURUSD from rallying … we’ll see how this goes. Tomorrow night 
sees U.K. consumer confidence at 7:01 P.M. EST, right before the Asian open, 
and given the nefarious bullshit in the past that has happened in Cable during 
this time slot, you couldn’t pay me to have a position going into this … Cable 
could react and do anything. And then on Friday, first up is U.K. GDP, and 
then at 10:00 A.M. EST, Carney from the BOE is due to give a speech … oh, 
won’t this be a hoot going into the weekend … expect volatility fireworks on 
Friday mi amigos.

Cable action today remained firmly on the bearish side … any and every short 
covering bounce was solidly met with capital flow & corporate account selling 
by big monied interests … it feels like it wants to go much lower, maybe down 
into the 1.37’s, and my guess is Carney on Friday, along with dismal GDP 
numbers, will be the catalyst to do it … we’ll see, and anything can change in a 
heartbeat, but for the umpteenth million time over the years, Cable gets way 
ahead of the reality of the U.K. economy, and therefore higher interest rates, 
and then gets disappointed “bigly & yuuge”. It could be different this time, but 
why?

Cable is the most volatile of the U.S. Dollar pairs, and I’m drawing the 
“red line” in the sand; I’m staying here, “come hell or high water”, and I’m not 
going to be switching markets again anytime soon … this pair has all we need, 
and the algorithm specifically designed for it [with minor modifications] many 
years ago when it was known on the trading floor as, “The Widow Maker”, is 
still as good as it ever was. Cousin It & Chief of Staff Milton Waddums have 
run all the numbers from the last nine months in GBPUSD, from last August 1, 
2017 up until yesterday, and I got drool all over my chin. This upcoming 
weekend, I’ll publish the GBPUSD algorithm, that was specifically designed for 
it [with very minor modifications] and no other market, along with pertinent 
data. So, fasten your seatbelt and hang in there, cuz this is gonna be fun.

The only thing I’m disappointed in from today’s trading is the action in the 
marketplace … give me 100 days like this over the next 20 years, and I’ll make 
the exact same trades every time … simply cuz I have to if we’re gonna catch 
the “pony rides” the market offers in abundance. So, trade fills were good, 
market action sucked, & I made the trades I had to … it is what it is, and it’s 
the price we pay for nice paydays, so no need to be disappointed cuz I can’t 
make the market move.

Last night I went to update the PAMM, using my spreadsheet program  
“Google Sheets” [online and free], and I can’t get any of my spreadsheets to 
open … contacted Google support, and I got a live chat, here in about an hour, 
with one of their tech support people to get it figured out … so, spreadsheet 
will be updated and posted when the “techies” get the problem solved. Until 
tomorrow mi amigos … I’m outta here … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great day everybody!

-vegas

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