LIFE IMITATES TRADING; TRADING IMITATES LIFE!
And so, here we are on a Friday, and if you trade gold, you have got to be thinking to yourself, “Christ, can’t this stuff stop goin’ down every frickin’ day?” SHORT ANSWER: “No, not until commercials [dealers, liquidity providers, & bullion banks] squeeze out every last retail spec long from Brexit. Then, and only then, assuming the FED & BOJ don’t do ‘stupid shit” next week [a mighty big assumption] will you be able to see any rally in prices that last longer than 4-12 minutes.”
And from where I sit, what matters right now for gold prices are the following; 1) can the market squeeze out any shorts going forward into the meetings?, 2) what will the BOJ do, if anything, come Tuesday night, 3) will the BOJ’s action’s preempt the FED from acting?, and 4) what will the FED Pie Holes do on Wednesday as far as interest rates are concerned?
And looking at the action in markets today, which market is leading the others? Is oil leading the SP500 which leads gold? Is it the SP500 which leads oil to lead gold? “Button up my sleeve, HEY Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!” In essence, you got millions of people playing “musical chairs” in different markets, waiting for the music to stop in one to jump to another; scalp, liquidate, rinse, repeat. “Oh yea, count me in for this shit!”
As I write, crude oil just rallied to the upper exhaustion lines; why? Who knows, probably somebody in Nigeria farted about production cuts or some such shit, started the rumor after they got long, and are now selling half a buck a bbl. higher in less than 20 minutes. This is oil; love it, live it, learn to trade it via the algorithm over in the “Download Links” section of the website in the right hand column. Never a dull moment here in this market; too many mistresses to take care of world-wide for that to happen.
And then when oil backs off the exhaustion lines [of course], gold retreats rather quickly, leaving those who tried to scalp the move up scrambling to get [beg really] a decent fill from the LP on the way out. This is what markets are today, and won’t likely change until Wednesday; most likely 2 more full days of this crap. This is what you get when markets [all of them; USDJPY, SP500, Gold, Oil] are “on edge” and have literally no clue what to expect next Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon and are in “hurry up & wait” mode; in all likelihood, the BOJ disappoints and the FED raises rates, and all hell breaks loose on the downside after that.
I’ve written before, the fact that our markets have no monetary fundamentals to guide them anymore; one day it’s “rates up” and 3 days later it’s “rates down”, and it oscillates back and forth driving a lot of money managers into bankruptcy and/or retirement. At the moment, it’s the environment we live in and have to deal with as traders.
I made 1 oil trade today, and didn’t trade gold; as I said before, until gold either breaks 1300 on a waterfall spike down [which more than likely will come “out of the blue” and kill sell stops] or gets back above 1320, I’m not trading it. The crosscurrents in this market are severe between these levels, and I don’t particularly feel like donating to the LP. Directly below the oil trade off the algorithm rules this morning.
Work on my “intermediate” time frame oil algorithm is progressing well; I made some progress this week in solving a number of problems that have been “vexing” me. I’ll probably have it done sooner than I originally thought. I’ll have more on this next week.
Right now, it’s almost time for my Vitamin C therapy, and I know the drill so well: Beach, Corona’s with Lime, dog, ample supply of Beggin’ Strips, and of course the nurf Frisbee. The wonderful Caribbean sun, turquoise water, watching others have fun, all make the day’s trading activities seem like ancient history. I’m sooooo outta here.
Have a great weekend everybody!
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