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Thursday, September 15, 2016

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NUT HOUSE


PROPER ATTIRE REQUIRED AT ALL TIMES!


A few thoughts on the “nut house” trading atmosphere we find ourselves in today; 1) really, unemployment claims at 42 year lows while other insignificant data … oh, like manufacturing data and retail sales … say we’re in a recession?, 2) how’d you like that 6 second bull market this morning in gold as some Loon paid up and got the painful fill of a lifetime at the high, followed some time later with the $7 plunge from 1317 to 1310?, 3) any bets it was the same guy on the way up who was the one on the way down?, 4) nothing says “fun” better than crude oil jumping to nowhere so it can go “Thelma & Louise” minutes later to the lower exhaustion lines, and 5) now that we are below 1315 in gold, I have no interest in getting long up/until we break 1300 on a waterfall, or go back over 1320; until then, I know enough to know I’m not risking $30 per Oz. to make $2.
All markets now are pretty much on schizophrenia alert; as I said yesterday, now you know why large hedge funds have been going out of business. You think trading a 2K account is hard, try $2 billion and position yourself in any of this shit; what with changing financial elite Pie Holes throwing “trial balloons” in the air every 2-3 days to see what the markets say, and then giving different signals as to monetary policy with almost every breath, is it any wonder markets are all over the place? Except gold; here, it very much looks to me as if it’s simply down, down, and then down some more.
I had a couple of oil trades [chart directly below], with the first one losing about 7 cents per bbl., and the second trade with a profit of about 15cents per bbl. And no, the Mrs. ain’t getting’ new wheels off of these trades, but at least they were profitable; “not every day is Christmas honey.”



Ok, the Mrs. is in the building!

“8 cents per bbl.? That’s it? What?”
And as the Mrs. drops by to pick up some “Benji’s” for lunch followed by the day spa with her girl friends, I of course, get the “snark” and chuckles when she finds out how much I’m up today. Because, as we all know, women view unprofitable traders or those that don’t make enough this way [directly below];

And, of course, that exact same trader guy, when he needs a large suitcase to carry the cash home to her; well, he looks very much this way[directly below].
“Hey, I don’t make the rules, OK?”
Don’t look for these type of trading conditions to change much, as we are now “3 days + today” for the Fed & the BOJ to redefine the words “stupid shit”; given their past histories, it should set up a very volatile rest of September & October, with volatilities expanding somewhat.
With respect to gold, it really depends on what these clueless Twits come out with in terms of policy that will set the “dealer tone” of the market; and right now, I feel like a rate hike is in the cards, data be damned. “Hey, you gonna believe us that EVERYTHING IS F-ING AWESOME BABY!, or you gonna believe your lyin’ eyes?”
What I do think you are seeing on these [so far] brief trips below 1310, is a trap for the BTFD’s; the first few trips work, and then BOOM!, we find ourselves at 1290 in about 3 nanoseconds, while your stop loss at 1304 gets filled at the bottom. “Thanks for playing, please come again!”
Have a great day everybody!
-vegas

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