CAUTION! ... WATCH FOR CAR WRECKS

 

“USDMXN in action!”   

Another day of batshit crazy USDMXN, today caused by U.S. GDP numbers

… nothing says WTF better than about 1,200 PIPS in 12 minutes, first 

blowing through the roof and setting off buy stops, and then collapsing lower 

and taking longs to the woodshed for a good beating … and so, for the third 

day in a row, market action blows the living hell out of our Peso algorithm.

Our algorithm consists of three parts that have to be in “sync” … if they’re 
not, you have to leave it alone … no if’s, ands, or buts about it … ignoring 
these relationships will only spell trouble, and if you do trade and make 
money, it’s only because you won a “coin flip”  with Lady Luck … and in this 
market, as well as USDCNH, “coin flips” are not the way to go.

Cursed again today by data releases … “whaddaya gonna do”? … look, I like 

the volatility, but I don’t like thousands of PIPS in seconds or a few minutes, 

cuz it’s just plain stupid stepping into this “car wreck” and expecting fills and 

the market to behave … it doesn’t and won’t.

And when the dust settles from these “lightening bolts”, what’s left is bullshit 
chop and minor stop hunts, usually the rest of the day, and today is no 
different … after the GDP disaster, and everybody stuck long USDMXN over 
the last couple of days got shot within 60 minutes, the rest of the day is a 
complete “snoozefest” of bullshit … and if you stepped into this arena and 
got hammered with some losses, how do you make it back in chop? … right, 
you can’t.

Trust me, I don’t like sitting here in these uncooperative markets any more 

than anybody else … I also hate losing money … and looking around the 

hedge fund universe, the managed money CTA universe, and the retail spec 

space, all I see is “wailing & gnashing of teeth” from traders who can’t make 

a dime in any of this pot of shit now controlled and manipulated by central 

bank HQ … ranges in everything are frickin’ pathetic, with the exception of 

USDCNH & USDMXN, and lack of intraday volatility is killing markets and 

traders. Well, we don’t have to worry about that in USDMXN, nor in 

USDCNH most of the time, but what we do have to worry about are the  

“wheels coming off the train” and VIX spiking into the stratosphere and 

hurting us … and then recognizing the strengths & weakness of our 

algorithm, and realizing that when we get thousands of PIP moves in a very 

short period of time, like under 15 minutes, the only thing that is gonna bring 

order back into things for the next move is TIME … so, you just have to wait 

… unfortunately, that’s the only thing we’ve done for 3 days now, since we 

started in this space! … Oy!

Blog update on Sunday … until then mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!

-vegas