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Friday, August 3, 2018

TOPS ARE PROCESSES … BOTTOMS ARE EVENTS

“Modern day trading … more “Pump & Dump” truth!”

It’s NFP Friday again … oh joy … although, this time around I don’t think it 
matters to the market … too many other things on the financial plate, unless 
the numbers are way off consensus into some sigma hell nobody foresees. The 
NDX100 in classic “pump & dump” mode, IMHO, as the “process” of pulling 
in every last discretionary dollar of the public’s money is unfolding before our 
eyes. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a “gloom & doom’er”, just reading the tape 
and observing sentiment swings, in the biggest bubble of all time since tulips 
swept Holland in 1636 - 1637. When “disappointment” sets in, like it did with 
Netflix & Facebook, you lose more money in hours than it took months to gain 
… and as it surely does, it will happen to the current darlings Apple, Google, & 
Amazon at some point here in the near future.

What is impossible to judge, or get a sense of unless you’re smack dab in the 
trading room of a TBTF scumbag LP bank, is the extent of the FEDS “Plunge 
Protection Team” [PPT] activities and/or the Swiss National Bank [SNB] 
buying everything in sight via “bigly & yuuuuge” futures orders. The banks 
know of it, front run it for their own prop accounts [illegal but who gives a 
shit?], take profits then they back away from their bids, and then repeat the 
process.

The level of government manipulation, both PPT & SNB, in the SP500 and the 
NDX100 is pervasive and overt … hell, they don’t even bother to hide it 
anymore. And looking at their intentions, it’s easy to see the manipulation is 
entirely crafted to enhance, promote, & lastly defend any and all price 
appreciation to protect consumer & investor confidence in stock prices 
“fun-der-mentals” have never meant as little as they do now for anything 
… it’s all about the propagandist projection of “Everything Is F-ing Awesome 
Baby!”, and with sycophants & apologists in the financial MSM, most notably 
Bloomberg & CNBC leading the way daily with permabull bullshit, I’m left 
with the feeling that somehow, if Dr. J. Goebbels [Reich Minister of 
Propaganda in Nazi Germany, for you Obama voters who think history 
started with President Empty Suit]  and his thuggish killer buds were still alive 
today, they would be in total awe of the stunning level of success of the FED in 
molding, shaping, & implementing desired public opinion of stocks demanded 
by the ruling elite. 

Nothing proves this premise better than Tesla, which if it wasn’t for 
government handouts and assorted accounting bullshit, would be a bankrupt 
automaker … that its stock is north of $300/share is a testament to the “cult of 
Elon”, and the perception that somehow & some way [nobody has a clue how 
though], electric cars made with dubious quality, are gonna be worth trillions 
someday … the stock should be traded on the “pink sheets” at around 70 cents 
a share, their propensity for losing money and burning cash well known for 
over 10 years, including this last quarter, where they burnt through $8 million 
bucks a day … “yup, no question about it, it’s worth $300+ a share, sure as I’m 
sittin’ here” … and THAT mi amigos, is what Goebbels & Co. would be most 
smiling about, and analyzing just how you get idiot humans to think like this 
and ignore reality … with that kind of thinking, the ruling elites can literally 
get away with anything.

I’m a trader … I try to be “real” in my approach to markets … I got no 
allegiance to either the bull or bear case for stocks … just cuz Uncle Warren’s 
market bell weather valuation model for stocks is the highest in history,
doesn’t mean it can’t be higher tomorrow, next week, next month, next year 
… doesn’t mean the NDX100 can’t be at 8,000 within a month, and 10,000 at 
Christmas … what it does suggest, though, is that as Facebook & Netflix both 
proved last week, when sentiment changes, there isn’t enough room at the 
door for anybody to get out without being bloodied badly. And from where I
sit right now, “Ma & Pa” Public are being setup for a bloodbath of historic 
proportions; it’s not a question of “IF”, only “WHEN”?

Turning to today’s NDX100 market … NFP numbers in line with adjustments 
to the prior month higher … really though, nobody gives a shit, cuz there’s 
more important China news to deal with AND the $64,000 question of, “what’s 
the “Plunge Protection Team” [PPT] & the Swiss National Bank [SNB] gonna 
do today"? Do they back away, or is it up, up, & away to newer higher highs & 
even greater levels of stupidity? 

Well, this has turned into a clusterfark ... no range, no real movement, no 
interest going into the weekend, and quite frankly who can blame anybody 
when Pols consistently grab headlines and move markets with their actions 
… today sees the PBOC raise FX margins, thus forcing a nut busting short 
squeeze  in short Reminbi [long USDCNH] positions and sees the currency 
rally almost 1,000 PIPS … anybody want to know what would happen if that 
happened in EURUSD or USDJPY? Add to that some Trump Tweets, and is it
any wonder nobody is interested today after yesterday’s massive manipulated 
PPT short squeeze higher? … and just like that, the rally for today is D.E.A.D. 
Now the question becomes, do longs want to stay long going into the weekend, 
or do we have lower lows still yet today?

Afternoon in New York, and with things so quiet, this Friday afternoon should 
be left alone … anything could happen of course, but again the news out today 
is most definitely NOT good for rising stock prices, not that it matters when 
you got the PPT & SNB around to bid shit higher … in any event, the last 2 
hours will see me on the sidelines, simply cuz any mistake will be amplified 
multiple times cuz there simply is not time to adjust or make back any losses 
unless you do “stupid shit”, like dramatically increase leverage & volume levels 
and potentially dig a deeper hole.

In this mess of a trading day, two trades … PAMM UP about $85. So, what we 
lost yesterday, plus a couple of bucks.

Captured the surge off the low for a good trade, but as the day unfolds, 
absolutely zero follow through to yesterday’s rally, and the NDX100 merely 
drifts about ever so slightly lower on the day so far. I just don’t see price going 
above 7400 and into the weekend … not that the market cares what I think, but 
it if does, it suggests severe disappointment next week if new all time highs over 
7500 can’t be produced, and every Newbie in trading sees the daily candlestick 
“double top”, and now you got some trouble brewing. 

I’ve adjusted my trading strategy some, and this is what led to today’s gains in 
a nothing market … should be very productive for the PAMM going forward, 
allowing us to capture most of the day’s gains, while sidestepping serious 
setbacks in price. 

Special blog post on Sunday night, and the PAMM Spreadsheet will be updated 
at that point as well. Markets more than ever are being driven & dominated by 
politicians and manipulator central banks … something years ago I would have 
said is impossible. OK, I don’t like it, but I can deal with it … the ramifications 
of which are more crazy and insane markets day-to-day, that flip from sheer 
panic to buying frenzy at the drop of a hat … since FED QE has ended, 
overnight and weekend risk has risen exponentially cuz of China … who the 
hell knows what they are gonna do when they start their day at 9 P.M. EST., 
and the night progresses. All the more reason to track the NDX100 Index via 
the NYSE session and leave the rest alone. 

We’re well positioned to take advantage of this going forward, and while some 
days present some trading problems, overall they are the distinct minority of 
trading days, with none of the problems I highlighted in yesterday’s blog post, 
which are absolutely guaranteed to show up quicker than most think. Quite 
frankly, given the state of markets across the MT4 platform, “Tech” is pretty 
much the only thing the vast majority of investors and traders care about 
anymore … yea, crude oil is there, but only in futures; nobody but nobody has 
a decent CFD in crude oil, cuz it doesn’t exist. Outside of the crazy action in 
USDCNH, with attendant astronomical spreads during the day, FX is  
“dead meat” with nothing but “chop” and scumbag LP bank bullshit slippage 
to deal with … precious metals a complete joke, as nobody trades it anymore 
… and the other stock indices a slippage & spread ripoff, especially if volatility 
picks up in the slightest. That leaves the NDX100, and why we’re here.

So, onto next week … will the ChiComs allow the “dog days of August”, or 
are we in for some unbelievable volatility on the horizon? Don’t know, but 
we’ll be there whatever happens, and we won’t be subject to subsequent 
meltdowns when [not if] the charts break down and scream 
“sell, Mortimer, sell!” at the top of their lungs. In reality, the future has never 
looked brighter for the PAMM going forward … until Sunday night mi amigos 
… Onward & Upward!!

Have a great weekend everybody!!

-vegas

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