“Please! … tell me again how there’s no risk in Emerging Markets!”
ChiCom heavyweight tech company Tencent, trading in Hong Kong last night
after earnings like it’s worth about ten cents, gives the world’s “tulip traders”
today the yips, as the kill switch goes from “risk on” to “risk off” faster than
the speed of light. And with the problems in Turkey “solved”, according to the
"smartest people in the room”, it’s time for EURUSD to rally and kill some
shorts … “err, not so fast Skippy”.
And while Turkey is “solved”, China Yuan [and by default the Reminbi
(USDCNH)] most certainly ain’t … add to that a total meltdown in metals
[copper & gold], and the risk of contagion goes viral worldwide quickly … and
at the head of this viral spear, you got EURUSD, cuz if that ain’t enough, don’t
mention Sweden or Italy and bank risk either. Outside of some spurts in short
covering, and some spec bottom pickers, rallying the Euro is gonna be a
Herculean task given the present state of the world. “I wouldn’t pencil in that
supposed rate hike in 2019 just yet”.
Turning to today’s EURUSD; it’s August and half of Europe is on vacation
… the other half starts tomorrow … traditionally, this is the slowest time of
year for FX, right up there with Easter week most years, so daily ranges are
gonna be tiny … no volume, no liquidity, and quiet conditions … maybe, until
SHTF in China or Turkey or Sweden or Italy or [insert problem here] … for
most of the day, until Qatar decided to put money into Turkey and the news
broke, I’m lookin’ at a 20 something PIP range over about 7 hours, and then
the news caused shorts to go apoplectic in seconds and we rallied 25 PIPS in
seconds … not to worry, after a break, a rally to new highs for the day [big
whoop] and the range got extended a whopping 2 PIPS before the inevitable
smack down.
A handful of trades today … PAMM up about $30.
Volumes today lowered simply cuz there isn’t anything going on but extreme
chop … hell, most of the day, EURUSD can’t decide if it wants to go higher by
3 pips or down by 3 pips, and changes its mind about 10 times a minute … in
crap like this, unless the market wants to tip its hand, the best strategy is to sit
on the sidelines … and then the Qatar news, but with trend slightly changing,
I most certainly don’t want to trade heavier volumes on the upside right now
… risk is clearly to the downside for the Euro for the immediate future … that
doesn’t mean I won’t get long, I just won’t do it right now with some volume
that is gonna hurt if SHTF on the downside.
So, not a typical day profit wise in EURUSD, but like I said earlier, “hey, it’s
August”, we aren’t [most likely unless news] gonna get the moves we’ll be
seeing come September and beyond, so unless there’s a reason for EURUSD to
be moving like normal, it ain’t gonna happen with most of the continent on
vacation and FX bank desks staffed with newly minted MBA skulls full of
B-School, bullshit mush.
Over the coming weeks, I’ll have some EURUSD “details” I can’t mention
right now … “yup, truly “secret agent stuff” and all that … still got some details
to iron out and take care of, but it’s exciting stuff … stay tuned”!
So, onto tomorrow, where it’s feeling like a test of the lows from today and
then some kind of rally day … today’s bullshit M1 blast to take buy stops out
above 1.13500 notwithstanding before the dump lower, simply delays the
inevitable serious short covering most likely in the works, either for tomorrow
or Friday … we’ll see. And with that, I’m outta here for today … until
tomorrow mi amigos … Onward & Upward!!
PAMM Spreadsheet will be back up soon!
Have a great day everybody!!
-vegas
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