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Friday, August 31, 2018

THE UNOFFICIAL LAST TRADING DAY OF SUMMER

“Unless you’re a scumbag LP Bank Preezy … then, it’s good to be a Gangsta!”

Well, here we are, the unofficial end of Summer 2018, and before kids go back 
to school, the boats are dry-docked for winter, the cabin at the beach or lake 
locked up, it’s once again time to take stock of the world’s financial status … in 
the infamous words of one John “Bluto” Blutarsky, “My advice to you is to start 
drinking heavily”. Cuz one glance at the world’s financial system, especially 
Emerging Markets [EM] and U.S. equity indices, and you’re more than likely 
to get either extremely dizzy and/or sick.

I learned long ago as a trader, that the axiom of “spread your risk” around the 
system was pure bullshit … gains don’t mean shit, unless they’re liquidated 
and the money is in the bank … what looks good or “OK” one moment, turns 
to bat shit the next second, and the difference between winning and losing isn’t 
just a function of money … it’s a function of liquidity, pure and simple. And as 
people have to be constantly taught with every generation, spreading money 
around to different piles of stinking shit doesn’t make the stink of the piles go 
away … “Oh, I got money in Turkey, Venezuela, Indonesia, Greece, Italy, 
Argentina, India, etc. … I’m diversified, so no one country can hurt me, and I get 
high yields on their government bonds, so I got that goin’ for me”! Sure ya do 
… until the FX of all of ‘em go south so fast, with zero liquidity to get out, that 
your entire pile of assets can’t buy a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

I see the other day on ZH, that according to BoAML [Bank of America Merrill 
Lynch], 40% of household wealth in the U.S. outside of home equity is held in 
passive investment vehicles in the stock market via ETN’s, ETF’s, & index 
mutual funds … 40% … “any idea what happens when ‘Murica folks get 
nervous and try and sell trillions of dollars of stock and there are no buyers”?  
Well, take a look at EM FX for a clue.

Turning to today’s EURUSD market … as expected, quiet Asian & European 
session with very little movement … today’s action will more than likely be 
centered around the NY afternoon, after Europe is closed, when Fitch 
announces ratings on Italy … a downgrade and/or negative watch status would 
more than likely lead to some EURUSD “Thelma & Louise” action before the 
close and into the weekend … how serious? … dunno, until Fitch spills the 
beans and gives their reasoning on why anybody with one functioning brain 
cell would put money into Italy.

“Well, that escalated quickly to the downside, didn’t it”? Italian bond yields 
blowing up, and thus pressuring EURUSD sell stops, which dutifully get set off 
and executed with a guillotine by the scumbag LP banks … “it never ends, cuz 
everybody in the loop gets fed off it … the Pols, the regulators, the brokerage 
house execs, and of course the scumbag banks who front run the shit out of ‘em 
… and if you ever wonder why this “wild west” isn’t better regulated, there’s your 
answer in a nutshell … who of any financial and/or political importance wants it 
to end”?

Quite frankly, coming into today, I want nothing to do with the “Fitch fiasco” 
coming this NY P.M. … I have no idea what these asshats are gonna do or say 
RE Italy, and whether or not it’s “buy the rumor, sell the fact” or “crush the 
Euro” before the Holiday weekend … in any event, conditions are so thin my 
order box looks and acts like it’s on drugs … up/down multiple PIPS within 
milliseconds followed by mind numbing nothingness, and then BOOM!, here 
come the vicious spikes. And vicious they were to sell stops with some nasty 
fills nobody is gonna like.

Yea, EURUSD has a good range today … not all that surprised, but it doesn’t 
matter … cross flows from EURGBP & EURCHF, to name just two [2], as well 
as “risk off” before the Labor Day Holiday, make this a very highly dangerous 
day I want to avoid … especially in light of some of the thinnest bullshit 
conditions I’ve seen in a while from FX … there ain’t nothing here, and what is 
here doesn’t want to be here trust me … it’s called I’m being forced out of longs 
or I have to do some corporate order … other than that, there is NADA!

No trades in the PAMM today.

As I said, I want no part of this crap … it’ll be here after Labor Day and some 
of this “financial dust” settles … until then, you risk 10 to make 1 … screw that, 
cuz all you’re doing is playing right into the scumbag LP bank’s hands for what 
is likely to be some of the worst fills you can imagine. Yes, there were plenty of 
algorithm signals today, but I ignored them simply cuz the trades 
aren’t/weren’t worth the risk in the market, given the lousy trading conditions 
… biz returns to normal next week.

Special blog post on Sunday night, as I outline our C2 [Collective 2] signals 
service in EURUSD, along with details. And with that, I’m outta here … until 
Sunday night mi amigos … Onward & Upward!! PAMM Spreadsheet will be 
back soon.

Have a great Holiday weekend everybody!!

-vegas

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