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Sunday, September 17, 2023

SUNDAY UPDATE: A CLOSER LOOK TRADING / SCALPING EURUSD

 

“The hardest trading secret in the world is to just follow directions!!”

I’ve laid out before, here on the blog, how EURUSD is manipulated by central

banks using varying techniques, including 1) using POLS & central bank

Apparatchiks to influence spec order flow from which the scumbag banks take

full advantage, 2) manipulating VIX over different world sessions to thwart specs,

and 3) using yield curve control [YCC] in the bond market to influence and direct

FX buying / selling … and in addition,, I have presented evidence of pre January

2015 EURUSD volatility, and compared that to post January 2015 volatility, where

there is a clear & distinct drop in how EURUSD trades in reaction to the FX

paradigm shift emanating from the EURCHF debacle on January 15, 2015 that

brought FX markets to its knees.


IMHO, anybody that attempts to position trade EURUSD and foregoes scalping is

simply “dead wrong” in their approach to trading … however, I’m not

presumptuous enough to think “my way is the only way”, but it is “ONE WAY!”

… MORE THAN ANY OTHER PAIR OUT THERE, WITH THE POSSIBLE

EXCEPTION OF BITCOIN @ IQCENT, will you find any market trading pair that

has the incredible pricing power via a razor thin bid/offer spread and no

commissions, that allows us to defeat any and ALL attempts by scumbag banks

to defeat any trader.


The first criteria for success is to adjust your mental state about trading and start

thinking like a floor trader … that is, “be dumb enough to be successful and make

consistent money!” … in other words, stop thinking, and just do it baby! … bull

market, bear market, neutral market, who cares? … be there with a position when

the scumbag bank LP’s flip order flow and are ready to crush specs … the

microtrend changes are enough for scalpers who enjoy floor like trading

conditions to profit with a very high probability of success … as I said the other

day, “Get in, get GREEN, get out! … now run! … rinse / repeat” … and it should be

obvious, you need THE BEST, OR CLOSE TO IT, LOWEST COST TO TRADE

AVAILABLE ANYWHERE! … and you get that @ IQCENT with a 0.1 - 0.2 PIP

bid/offer spread AND NO COMMISSIONS in EURUSD … and if you can find any

other house that is even close to 0.2 PIPS OR LOWER CONSISTENTLY, please

let me know … quite frankly, it doesn’t exist and it isn’t out there! … sure, there

are houses that have ZERO SPREADS, but then check out their round turn [RT]

commission structure, and you’ll discover a 1 lot [100,000 notional] fee of

anywhere from $2.50 per side [$5 RT] to $4.00 per side [$8 RT], and that equates

to a total cost to trade of 0.4 - 0.8 PIPS … what’s so “special” about this?


PIPS matter!, even fractional PIPS MATTER! … if you trade 50 lots per week

during your trading session [1 lot volume, 10 trades per day, 5 days per week],

and you pay ½ PIP more than me, that comes out to paying the house and

scumbag LP $250 PER WEEK, OR OVER $12,000 FOR THE YEAR!! … which

among you reading this think $12+ Grand doesn’t matter? … and that’s just in

1 year, IMAGINE A CAREER?!! … so don’t sit there and tell me tiny fractions of

a PIP don’t matter and I’m just splitting hairs … and as I’ve said before, why do

you think people like me paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to be on the

floor and get the lowest cost available at the time? … cuz we liked

Murder, Illinois? [a/k/a Chicago to Biden voters] … you think I liked commuting

into that complete SHITHOLE of a city, even back-in-the-day? … of course not,

it was simply what we had to do to get the conditions necessary for trading

success, and so I like others did it … well now, YOU DON’T HAVE TO DO IT!

… Hell, trading conditions today are far superior and cheaper than back when

pits were around.


And as important as PIPS are, scalpers need a market that “trades” up/down

consistently … we need a very active market of “UPS & DOWNS” that go at least

a few PIPS before changing short term direction again … and so we have what’s

known as “TREND VOLATILITY” … and quite frankly, there isn’t any other market

I know of that consistently beats EURUSD in terms of “TREND VOLATILITY”

[“TREND VIX”], the changing of up versus down short term trends … NOT THE

SCOPE OF THE MOVES, SIMPLY THE CHANGE IN TREND … trends that scalpers

can take full advantage cuz we got the scumbag LP banks working for us and

not against us … remember cuz it’s vitally important, scumbag banks NEED

COLLECTIVE SPEC VOLUME TO GET THE BEST PRICES FOR THEIR LARGE

ORDERS, so they need specs to buy rallies or sell breaks inside tiny trends on

the charts … YOU THINK BANKS CAN’T READ CHARTS!? … and their “AI”

systems intentionally create rallies and breaks for their own benefit, and in the

process set off your buy/sell signals that feed into that trading paradigm that

leads to bank trading profit VIA THEIR OFFSHORE PROP ACCOUNTS and spec

losses … which means bottom line, you got to be there when these trends

change … whether you want to be long or short doesn’t matter, it’s the exact

same process!


Mathematically, you can represent via an infinite number of ways [indicators] to

get the same result … easy to do in the computer era we find ourselves in, not so

easy before high speed internet and electronic trading … and for that purpose I

use SuperTrend on the m1, with parameter settings of 8, 1.3, AQUA for

UPTREND, WHITE for DOWNTREND … I also use my proprietary

support / resistance “Risk Models” [RM] to map support / resistance depending

on the level of volatility in the market … on the m1 I have RM=1 & RM=2 above &

below price action, and on the m15 I use RM=3 & RM=4 for longer term support /

resistance.


For conservative scalp OR DAY traders, I’d use the m15 in conjunction with the

m1, where if I’m trading EURUSD from the long side, I want to see SuperTrend in

AQUA color, which is UPTREND on the m15, and I would use trend changes from

white to aqua on the m1 for buy signals … depending on your risk tolerance,

scalp for a few PIPS or let it run if there’s no slowing down in the up move

… liquidate on a stalling price, or liquidate on a price spike up, or final scenario

liquidate on trend change color back to white … rinse / repeat … through all of

this, watch the “RSX of Momentum” oscillator at the bottom, and don’t take buy

signals if it’s reading is above 85 … rules are essentially the same for selling

and taking short positions, just “flip the script”, and don’t take readings of the

RSX of Momentum below 15 when getting short … the parameter settings I have

for EURUSD for the “RSX of Momentum” oscillator are 5, 5.


For aggressive scalp traders including myself, I have mixed things up quite

aggressively in order to get the jump on changes in order flow … please

remember 3 things … 1) the bank won’t wait for us on our trade, 2) we have to be

quicker to the trade than the spec community cuz we need their panic liquidation

orders, AND 3) we can get equal information from other indicators depending on

what our objective is for the trade … I recommend this NEW SETUP ONLY FOR

EURUSD SCALPING … instead of SuperTrend, use VIDYA CMO 1.1,

PARAMETERS 7, 2, MEDIAN PRICE [PLUM UP TREND, YELLOW DOWNTREND

… AND USE STOCHASTIC that is in the library of indicators in MT4. USING

PARAMETERS IN THE PIC DIRECTLY BELOW.



Directly below is Friday’s trade action in EURUSD from 8:30 AM EST - 11 AM

EST, which was the busiest time of Friday’s day … both SuperTrend and VIDYA

are on the m1, along with RM=1 & RM=2, and below that are, from top to

bottom, “RSX of Momentum”, UniFisher Transform [UFT], and the stochastic.



As you can see, ViDYA IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN SUPERTREND, and the 3 oscillators are roughly in line with each other, but the stochastic pinpoints very well bottoms [and tops as well if you’re shorting] better for scalp trades from the long side … remember the goal here … “Get in, Get Green, Get out! … Run … rinse / repeat!” … come back tomorrow and do it again & again until your bank account looks like your telephone number with country and area code! … directly below, the MT4 scalping chart for EURUSD ONLY.


The orange vertical lines pinpoint bottoms for buy scalps … the one white line is

a possible losing trade depending on where you got out … my rule for scalping is

simple … it needs to go now, or within a minute or two MAX … if it’s not going

up, time to exit … and with only a fraction of a PIP spread and no commissions,

this is a no brainer move … I’m not an analyst, I’m a trader! … in total, during this

2 ½ hour timeframe, 15 winning scalps and maybe 1 losing scalp … that’s over a

90%+ win ratio, and your only job is to make the trade, and if it ain’t working

quickly GTFO … there is no such thing as “getting whacked” when scalping,

unless you do “stupid shit” … don’t do STUPID SHIT!


EURUSD is the only pair I would use for this approach, cuz it has the lowest cost

to trade of anything … Bitcoin needs a little more space than EURUSD to perform,

and it doesn’t have the “Trend VIX” like EURUSD does … if you use this setup on

other FX pairs, the higher spread and total cost to trade will hurt profits, and

losses on potential scalps could be higher due to higher VIX in that pair.


Directly below, the 20 Day Range MA’s for selected markets.



Onto the week … OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of
sunglasses 😎😎, and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!!
… Onward & Upward!!

-vegas
































 




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