Remember when elections were decided on election night, or maybe in the
“wee hours” if things got tight? … not anymore, thanks to scumbag POLS in
BOTH parties who absolutely love the cheating & corruption just fine, but tell
you what a shame it is … EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD has elections
decided within hours after the polls close … not the Banana Republic a/k/a the
U.S., where it looks like after 3 days it may take another week or two, OR UNTIL
somebody runs out of paper ballots to stuff cuz they ran out of ink and/or dead
people … AND SPEAKING OF DEAD GUYS, REMEMBER THAT THIS IS THE
COUNTRY THAT VOTES FOR DEAD GUYS! … Arizona immediately comes to
mind WITH “SCUMBAGGERY & FUCKERY”, cuz as everybody knows it takes
weeks to count ballots, right? … but there are other places as well … since ALL
OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE ELECTION SOLUTIONS, WHY CAN’T THE U.S. BE
HONEST, FAIR, AND WITHOUT REPROACH? … CUZ THE POLS DON’T WANT
IT! … F-ING SCUMBAGS WHO DESERVE NOTHING BUT SCORN AND SHOULD
BE DRIVEN OUT OF PUBLIC LIFE FOREVER! … As I said yesterday, “THE U.S.
VOTES, THE WORLD LAUGHS”.
And then there’s the new paradigm in FX … for so many years, central banks
ruled the roost, collapsing VIX and putting the “VIX GENIE” into a bottle from
which, they mistakenly thought, it would never escape again … then came COVID,
the Russia / Ukraine war, and most importantly INFLATION … and the “VIX GENIE”
escaped, and I don’t think anytime soon she’s going back in the bottle … in fact,
from where I sit, she seems pretty pissed off, and is doing her best to make life
for the BOJ a living Hell … quite frankly, THERE ARE NO RULES ANYMORE
… “The Twilight Zone” is the new normal … up / down multiple hundreds of PIPS,
and who’s gonna stop the freight train? … with inflation roaring, despite
yesterday’s miniscule drop from the “8’s” into the high “7’s”, an event that
doesn’t mean shit to get inflation targets back to the fantasy land of 2% or lower,
and central banks panicking worldwide, economies collapsing, and the ChiComs
printing money like there’s no tomorrow, all that is guaranteed is more chaos
and destruction.
USDJPY perfectly poised for this event, simply cuz their ruling class are most
likely the biggest Twits alive and are F-ing clueless … perfect conditions for the
roller coaster rumor mill and yo-yo action coming cuz they don’t have the money
to stop anything, except to print it … and, being the historical carry trade
denominator for most FX non dollar cross pairs, although Cable gives it a good
run for the money some times, traders are quick to FOMO & Panic at the drop of
a hat … there are no rules anymore in FX, particularly USDJPY, and it can go
anywhere and in any amount … yesterday being a very good example of what
can happen when nobody is looking late in the New York session … throw the
ChiComs into the mix hours later when they hit their screens, from a long night
of gambling at a local casino, and the volatility cocktail is ready for your
consumption … welcome to the new paradigm … trade accordingly!
I forgot to mention yesterday that today is a semi-Holiday … Veterans Day
… markets generally open but banks and the cash bond market are closed
… that has tempered trading cuz find me a trader that doesn’t like a 3 day
weekend … overnight the ChiComs lifted some COVID restrictions, and of course
crude oil went nuts … since that clusterfark buying frenzy ended, it’s been
sideways to down with a “Trading Ratio” [TR] that stinks, coming in around
2.5 - 3.0 … that ain’t good enough … USDJPY acting like it’s on a steroidal road
rage, and killing accounts as the unwind of long USDJPY positions plus cross
positions are unwound … Cable not doing much with a rather pathetic range
for the last 8+ hours … GBPJPY on a tear early cuz of the YENS influence in the
denominator … spreads generally OK, but GBPJPY is slightly higher which
pisses me off some … energy spreads today a joke at “SLIPPAGE FX”
[a/k/a Coinexx / Turnkey].
One thing of importance that’s been missing when it comes to the “Energy
Trading Algorithm”, which btw can also be used in any market besides energy
if VIX is present, is how it reacts when VIX drops, not so much in crude oil, but
in FX pairs like Cable, Cable/Yen, and USDJPY … well, today provides that answer
… cuz the simple fact is, give the algo a range of greater than 100 PIPS in a
trading session of at least 3 or 4+ hours, and it’s very difficult to lose money
… however, when that 3 - 4+ hours is only 40 PIPS, or 60 PIPS, what happens
then? … I’m not concerned that FX pairs are going back to the good old days of
40 - 50 PIP ranges for the day, cuz the “VIX Genie” is out of the proverbial bottle
and ain’t goin’ back in … but as today’s ranges pointed out, mainly cuz it’s a
quasi Holiday in the U.S., action can slow down considerably for longer time
periods than we want to see … USDJPY a good example today, where for the
vast majority of the day it was stuck in mud … so how did the algorithm perform
giving signals given these conditions? … and the answer is very well, well
enough for me to take them if it happens again in future trading days.
As long as trading conditions are NOT completely insane and bat shit crazy
[BSC], making “The Twilight Zone” look normal, the clear winner to trade going
forward is USDJPY … big ranges and low spread give this market the edge over
Cable and Cable/Yen … quite frankly, I’m not entirely comfortable trading Cable
cuz it has lacked consistently good conditions … one day good, the next 3 not
so hot, plus the spread is significantly higher versus USD/JPY … approximately
0.3 PIPS in YEN and about 1.1 PIPS in Cable, and yet the ranges in YEN are larger
and it moves somewhat “purer” than Cable on the chart … and when it slows
down, I now know using the algorithm is OK to trade … versus historical data,
Cable and YEN are moving too much in the same direction, going up together or
down at the same time … we’re not getting the dichotomy usually seen where
one goes up at the others expense nearly enough to justify it’s fat spread … today
another example of this, where Cable/Yen has an approximate daily range of 307
PIPS, and USDJPY has an approximate daily range of 402 PIPS … TOO MUCH
movement together and the spread in Cable/Yen is anywhere from 1.2 - 2.5
depending, and USDJPY is around 0.3 PIPS.
There have been times in the past where I’ve traded USDJPY and gotten hosed
on fills off the market … however, that was on the regular MT4 platform for the
PAMM not the VPS platform I’m on now … today sees “Miss Gimpy” on the VPS
platform trading USDJPY and getting filled fairly with acceptable latency … I
don’t see why the PAMM shouldn’t either … and while we’re at “SLIPPAGE FX”
now, Turnkey always had somewhat decent FX trading, cuz it was the CFD’s that
were the problem child … Coinexx is no different, and I don’t see any evidence
of any changes in FX when it comes to fills or latency.
Now that the bloom is off the rose so to speak in USDJPY to the upside, and
market participants are more amenable to trading USDJPY from the sell side, it
should make USDJPY trading conditions better as well … at least for the time
being the “one way street” of higher and higher price has been broken … given
the complete chaos of the BOJ versus the FED, and likely to continue for a good
long while amid volatile world financial conditions, if USDJPY trading conditions
do deteriorate, I would expect EURUSD and GBPUSD to be affected even worse
… looking at USDJPY today when it slowed down, the real question was whether
or not the algorithm parameters, namely VIDYA 60 versus VIDYA 10, would
collapse onto each other and invalidate any long or short signals? … and it didn’t,
cuz signals still performed admirably during this time.
No trades today, I spent this quasi Holiday analyzing data for slower periods,
particularly USDJPY, GBPJPY, and GBPUSD … the clear winner is/was USDJPY
… Hell, even if daily ranges lost 100 PIPS per day, that would still be a 20 Day
Range MA = approximately 127 PIPS [current reading at 227 PIPS] … I don’t see
this happening anytime soon, and if anything USDJPY has scope for further
range MA’s going higher, not lower … the unwind of short YEN positions is most
likely in the trillions, and if the FED is truly pausing or finishing rate hikes, the
unwind isn’t even close to being undone … on the other hand, if all of this lower
inflation isn’t for real, and rates stay stubbornly high along with a FED that
continues to hike, it’s the Titanic in reverse going back higher … either way, the
trades are there … can’t say the same for EURUSD or GBPUSD.
As I have said before, finding the right market isn’t as easy as it seems … there’s
a shipload of work that goes into finding it, and most often it isn’t the one you
first think about … nobody wants to play “Whack-A-Mole”, moving from market to
market looking for VIX that often doesn’t come when you want it to … then you got
the logistical problems involved with LP’s and brokerage houses via spreads and
other horseshit … we’ve just been through that with energy, and in the flip of a
switch, everything turns to shit and we no longer have any kind of edge … I
initially thought maybe Cable would work, but problems with the UK government,
and conflicting signals from the idiotic central bank, and Cable becomes less of a
perfect trading pair than seems on the surface … EURUSD is simply a basket
case of Apparatchik incompetence … we know what we get with “Peter Pan”
Kuroda and the BOJ, and we know how the world views USDJPY as the funding
currency of choice for carry trades … and we got the best trading conditions on
the planet when the world isn’t melting down into retarded kittens on meth … so it
makes sense for me to concenttrate on USDJPY, while hopefully the idiots at
“SLIPPAGE FX” get their shit together and offer viable crude oil and Natty Gas
CFD’s … and quite frankly, knowing these two outfits, I’m not particularly
optimistic they get anything I’ll like … we’ll see and watch, but I remain skeptical
they will do anything in energy from what they already got … that leaves USDJPY,
which is fine for me, and I’ll hit it come Sunday night … volumes will increase,
cuz this market can handle about anything.
Truly, we are indeed fortunate to have a day like today, where things were slow
most of the day, although seeing YEN have a 400+ PIP range isn’t exactly “slow”,
there were times it slowed down dramatically … lately, it’s been tough to get
… onto next week, where trading will pick up dramatically … blog update
on Sunday.
… OUTTA HERE … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎,
and my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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