Before I get into today’s excursion down the rabbit hole, directly below the 20
Day Range MA’s for selected pairs.
I said on Friday, that I would divulge what the Mrs. & my niece are doing with
regards EURUSD, and trading off the Netdania 15s chart … and before I get to
that, I want to state categorically, “you don’t get something for nothing” in trading,
and that every indicator you look at or invent “comes with a price” … question is,
what’s the price in terms of the gains you give up for preventing losses, and does
that potential elimination of some risk make any sense from a trading perspective
… my general take is, in very active volatile markets losses can get out of control
very easily, and it might make perfect sense to give up more in gains than losses,
simply to mitigate losing streaks … in less active markets from an historical
perspective [remember, ANY MARKET can hurt you!], that strategy might not
make any sense cuz it happens so infrequently … crude oil is a good example of
the former, and EURUSD is a good example of the later.
Having said this, YOU ARE ALWAYS GOING TO HAVE A NORMAL PROBABILITY
CURVE AROUND ANY MA OR OTHER INDICATOR, NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU
ATTEMPT TO ELIMINATE IT! … you can’t eliminate it, not in any market … there
are always going to be those “gray areas” where price diddle farts right at your
indicator, and then goes “back & forth” from buy to sell to buy, etc., driving you
nuts in the process … and in case you’re wondering, this is exactly one of the
main premise points in simply trading from either the long side or the short side
in dollar pairs … IMHO, sticking to one side or the other will ALMOST ALWAYS BE
MORE PROFITABLE THAN SWITCHING FROM LONG TO SHORT AND BACK
AGAIN … it’s not that one side or the other doesn’t get the “gray areas” cuz they
do, but without doing the statistical analysis cuz I don’t have access to the data, I
do think over the long run it works out more profitably.
However, I certainly understand why people want a “directional indicator”, simply
cuz it’s easier to make money when the banks are on your side, rather than when
they aren’t … the trend is your friend BS so to speak … from a scalping
perspective, what’s important to me is “buy fuel” for longs, and “sell fuel” for
shorts … not in the longer term trend, BUT NOW … cuz when the banks sense a
change in order flow, whether it’s from specs or institutions, they react
IMMEDIATELY and spank pairs like USDJPY 3 - 10+ PIPS right up the wall higher,
or over the cliff lower … the problem isn’t that the market won’t give you scalps,
the problem if you’re long, is that if the market is in a short term downtrend, when
it turns from a slight rally and the m1 goes red, it can get very ugly in a heartbeat
… you’re up, and then blink your eyes and price is plunging on some red m1
spike lower … minutes up, seconds to go lower, and if you have to hit the
liquidate button during this, the scumbag bank LP’s are gonna take a good pound
of flesh from you cuz they can, and your fill is gonna be ugly … flip it around and
it’s the same on the upside for shorts … neither side gives you an edge for
scalping per se, it strictly depends on order flow.
On the 15s chart via Netdania, USDJPY over the last 2 weeks has repeatedly
responded well to the HOLT EMA [HEMA] for directional trades … do the math,
and it’s obvious the HEMA tracks trend over a 15.75 minute time frame … short
and sweet … but what if any trader wanted a longer term trend for direction of
trade, not only in USDJPY, but maybe EURUSD as well? … over in the right hand
column in ‘DOWNLOAD LINKS”, I’ve linked to 2 mql4 indicators you might want
to experiment with, that I think are relatively good at spotting trend, and then
trend change in a very timely manner … 1) Heiken Ashi Smoothed, and 2) the
HOLT EMA [HEMA] I use on the 15s at Netdania.
If your trading signals are off the 15s, I’d use an m5 for direction on the MT4
… currently, the MRS. & my niece are using BOTH Heiken Ashi Smoothed AND
the HEMA … WHEN BOTH ARE IN UPTREND, BUY ONLY OFF 15S NETDANIA
CHART, AND WHEN BOTH ARE IN DOWNTREND, SELL ONLY [SHORT] OFF 15S
NETDANIA CHART … directly below, EURUSD DURING FRIDAY’S TRADING
ACTION ON THE M5.
As you can see, both indicators give a very good trend picture for scalping … this
is cuz the market is moving and the VIX is decent while the 20 Day Range MA is
also good … if you’re only getting long via the algorithm on the 15s when both
are sky blue on the m5, and only getting short via the algorithm on the 15s when
both are pink on the m5, it’s gonna be hard to lose money on a trade! … this m5 is
from the entire trading day, spanning 12 hours.
Netdania is 7 hours behind Turnkey, so let’s pick out some trades on the 15s from
18:05 - 18:14 [Turnkey], which is 11:05 - 11:14 on the 15s at Netdania … first up,
the m5 with commentary.
As you can see, the trend has changed, and it didn’t take either indicator very long
to change with it … very responsive! … now directly below, the 15s on the
Netdania platform … “X” marks 3 scalp trades from the long side, with the last
one going up rather well.
“Mary is the best!” … so says the girl here who came over to my laptop and put
that in for all to see … in other words, her “15 minutes of fame”! … in other news,
water is wet … I would remind readers, that as long as a market moves
somewhere, the above directional indicators will work extremely well … when
EURUSD, or any other pairs goes “chop city”, that’s when SHTF and you can get
some very “squirrelly” action both up/down … and if that happens consistently,
it’s best to move onto something else that has more VIX.
Tomorrow the Holiday, but Asia & Europe open … we’ll see if they can do
anything … until tomorrow.
… outta here … “The future’s so bright I need 2 pairs of sunglasses 😎😎, and
my own Brinks armored truck” 💓!! … Onward & Upward!!
-vegas
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